Member Info for Dofe

I wouldn’t take too much notice of what markets do in the first hour of trading. They look back at Asia overnight and forward to the US later in the day- that I shall why you often see wild swings first thing in the morning and later in the day.
However, the Asian market clearly wasn’t impressed by the Fed move from open and are looking desperately to China to see what its next move is in order to relieve the pressure on the market. However, China is in trouble itself, relatively speaking.
All the Central Banks are currently working together in order to maintain liquidity, currency wise, but that cannot solve the underlying problems -only big moves by governments can now prevent it turning into a global slump. However, the underlying problem of corporate debt, much of it which is effectively junk, has yet to be addressed.
You will see lots of ‘advice’ from ‘experts’. My advice would be to ignore it all and wait until you see some semblance of order, unless you have very deep pockets with which to gamble.
What we are currently seeing doesn’t look pretty.

Toff’s obviously not Happy.
Dopey?

Is to convince the US that the Coronavirus is the inevitable consequence of globalisation.
His speech later will be pure electioneering.

“We get stampedes whenever there is a Bank Holiday weekend......”
Good practice for when they start the helicopter money drop.

Recession consensus is that 1st quarter will be led by China, Japan, Korea, Italy followed in 2nd quarter by US and Eurozone. It would take a massive fiscal stimulus far beyond that currently proposed. However, it is US election year so anything could happen. Concern in EZ is Italy and its debt. Neither BOE or US will go to negative interest rates like EU, so there is little wriggle room left for UK other than more fiscal stimulus. However, countries will work together to support each other’s monetary systems - they will have to.

Market falls.
Mind you if he remembers his lines it might rise again .
Blaming Europe now for Coronavirus in US
Whatever happens a recession is inevitable

If you can’t find the answer just push the problem onto the taxpayer and call it “ co-ordinated monetary and fiscal policy”
Not something Germany approves of.

If it passes in House it may help stabilise concerns in US.
Watch CDX movement

Tw words:
Leveraged debt
Shadow banking

The central banks lost control of the system years ago but chose to do nothing about it.

FED talking of more QE. This would weaken dollar and, theoretically, raise asset prices.
FED determined to maintain liquidity in the market.
Also talk of further rate cuts by .5%
Trump presumably told to keep his mouth shut - loose talk costs jobs.
Market reaction = ?
But if not then God Help America.

Pledge your company to the Fed
Borrow lots of money on the cheap
Buy back your shares
Share price rises
Flog them off again
Pay back Fed from gains
Award yourself a big bonus

Might help

Velo
lol. Clearly that is why we get paid good money and bonuses for what we do and you clearly don’t I specialise in certain types of financial instruments as part of a team containing all specialisms Combined knowledge added together is what helps the company to make the right decisions and hopefully make money. None of us, individually, could do what we can do as a team, otherwise we would be making the same sort of mistakes you are clearly making.
The problem is: the people who shout the loudest usually engage their mouths before their brains and don’t fully understand the risk factor of any decision they are making. I don’t understand all the risk factors outside of my own specialism but I have a good broad knowledge of the system in general.
We have to always look at all the factors which could affect any decision we make and the people with the money make big bets on our recommendations. However, things are constantly changing and we are continually re-evaluating the risks. What seemed good yesterday may seem disastrous today. Eg the Putin action.
Who has the last laugh though?

Velo
Duke of Edinburgh lol never thought of that.
I can’t tell you who I work for or what I do. You may take that how you like, but I’m no Toff.
I don’t even remember my previous posts, but if you look at their timing it may give you a clue as to whether they are complete BS or whether they are trying to point you in the direction of current events that are driving the market.
Shares? Wouldn’t touch them individually with a barge-pole but then you probably never saw the original joke and probably don’t understand why I post on a BT share board, except that I am Dofe the merciful one- lol. Not for much longer though as I am off, so you can fire off all the insults you wish.

Dofe and his band of Pirates.

.... and the market rises.
Trump speaks and the market falls.
They are now employing a Hollywood scriptwriter in order that he can try again.
ECB have proven that all they can do is continue to prop system up with more QE, to tacit disapproval of the Bundesbank.
BOE having a long lunch.
Putin worrying that he may have overdone things a bit but wants to keep his hand in for US elections to fall in his favour.
Best advice - if you are in the market just sit it out. If you are out question what has happened that is making you want to jump back in.
The market may change but it will always exist for next time.
Who’d have thought a bat could cause such chaos?

Toff “the lion amongst the Wildebeest”
lol
Clarence the cross eyed Lion amongst the donkeys.

Keep it up Toff. You have proven your poor investment skills over the past few years in buying shares in falling sectors of the market- CNA, BT, VOD, LLOY etc.
You did what everyone else did and bought for dividend income, sat on your loss making shares; saw the prices drop whilst doing nothing; cried foul, and now want to abuse everyone who made the same mistake that you did.
Dofe ( and his colleagues) have been warning about the problems being stoked up by companies for years - although we don’t invest directly in the stock market- we make our money by attempting to foresee the, often minor, geo-political events that drive and move the markets and invest accordingly, ahead of the game. Some we win, some we lose, but we make good money at it so we can’t be doing too badly. e.g we realised what could happen to oil prices when Putin shrugged his shoulders at the Saudis etc.
Instead of knocking the small private investors, why don’t you share some of your real ‘investing knowledge’ and help them to improve their success rate?
The reason being is that you are a complete fantasist with very little understanding of the basics, as has been proven, to me at least.

Dofe - who is shortly back off to Japan for a while, so you won’t have to put up with my useless comments either.

No. Every part of the market takes their share of the hit. What the market will re-assess now though is the fly in the ointment after the crisis is over - debt.

Complete cobblers which shows your lack of understanding.
The ftse 100 isn’t the bellwether for the UK domestic market as probably 75% of its earnings are derived overseas, so oil shocks, currency movements etc will affect it, which is why it takes its cues from the Dow.
The ftse 250 is more representative of UK plc and will therefore give a better picture of the UK economy.
Stop clutching at straws. You lost money because of your superior knowledge.
Stop blaming the market makers etc and take a good look in the mirror.

Ludwig
Sudden moves by Central Banks temporarily dislocate markets whilst everyone’s is trying to work out what will happen next - cause and effect. That is why the markets are rollercoastering- no one is sure what the next announcement may be and what real effect it will have on an already stressed marketplace.
Should you invest now?
What you should be asking yourself is WHY should I invest now. And guess what? Major banks and investment houses employ teams of professionals who are busily pouring over the data.
Remember, the market and economies are heavily over-leveraged, and will do whatever it takes to either unwind or protect their positions.
Don’t try to outguess the market. It is ahead of you and can afford to lose a lot of money in the short term.

“It almost feels like investors are being punished for investing in UK stocks”

No. Investors have been punished because they didn’t understand what the market has been telling them- they believe that they know better, so they ‘invest’ on their ‘intuition’ and consequently lose money.
If you don’t understand what is causing markets to move in the way they do, which you clearly don’t, then you shouldn’t be pretending to be an expert investor. You are only pulling the wool over your own eyes, not ours.
You have mis-read the market and have lost out. So have millions of others, but they have the good grace to accept the position they have now found themselves in.
If you learn to read things a bit better, then you may possibly either keep up with, or even get ahead of, the game.
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