Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
This is great news. The more events that can take place through trials like these the better. LFT morning of event will show if you’re infectious (which is the key bit), load it into Covid passport and you’re all good for the match/show/concert.
Could this antibody test become a bit of a cash cow for the RTC and prove not to be the failure everyone thought it was?
Antigen tests were seen as the way out of this and I’m absolutely sure they will continue to help massively in the short to medium term, but with Covid passports and the need to show antibodies are present in the person this test could tick along quite nicely for years and years. One antibody test could last months whereas an antigen test is a there and then snapshot so might only be valid for a day or two. Just a thought as to why the MCAP has a reason to stay high (if it rises!) as revenue could continue well into the future after the antigen LFT has had its day. Great that the company has a few different options to work with.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-analysis-of-lateral-flow-tests-shows-specificity-of-at-least-999
The government seem fully convinced on LFTs still, no information for a while is not a change in information. I’ve been wobbling on my shares here with a lot invested but this article gives so many positives and it’s from the government.
Matt Han******* back in March
“ This new data further confirms what we know – these rapid tests are extremely accurate and are helping dramatically curb COVID cases. On Monday alone, we conducted over 1.5 million tests.”
I know that’s innova tests but the number per day must be going up. At that rate over 300million tests will be used in under 6 months. There is demand, manufacturers are needed. The big thing is stopping using the Innova ones. Once that happens, ODX, GAD, AVCT, Mologic (and probably ABDX) ‘should’ be in a good place.
I nearly sold but I haven’t
Just what I’ve been told. Friends in Scotland giving the info with links to the company. They called the capacity scale up correctly and that it was in preparation for a big contract they believed was a done deal.
Several sources all saying Wednesday... my oh my :-)
Big announcement from Avacta and ODX, followed by a more public but subtle evening announcement. As long as the RNS makes fireworks who cares about other announcements.
Silles - not talking about ODX production. Government wanted population using 2m LFTs per day.
26,114,449 LFTs registered as used between March 8th and April 4th
Assume 5% wastage = 27,451,671 used.
Equates to 27.5m / month for easy numbers
Huge push on extra usage now so assume a 50% increase in numbers and that = 41.25m / month
Thats 1.375m / day.
Not quite the 2m target but it’s only a guess.
How many of the innova do the government have in stock or on order?
Maybe Colin went on holiday to Avacta Al’s new house and day one’s activities consisted on searching for Novacyt’s missing DHSC contract? Bad times for Covid stocks.
My take on today’s RNS is positive and one we should be all happy about and finally gives investors a clearer idea on the company’s plan for the capacity they have. However, we need order numbers and an idea on profit per test for each version sold before the re-rate happens.
The question marks that still hang over the company are just how much of the 374m will they take from the government order and will selling to the private sector be even more profitable? If 1m test / week takes the full 374m AND there is remaining capacity then Wow! But, if the government take 1m and it is materially less than 374m then obviously not as good because the rest of the capacity isn’t guaranteed... yet.
All in all a great RNS but still more info needed before the big change in SP occurs. Of course all imo.
What a load of rubbish. How can a possible £374m contract be so talked down in the RNS. Basically says don’t look at the max amount because they won’t get that, and actually don’t get excited because we can’t produce anything yet anyway.
C909,
I see what you’re saying and it’s an interesting point. Maybe the astronomical SP won’t be hit for that very reason but even with just 12months sales and 100m units sold, that has to re rate the sp in its own right to a certain degree. One thing is for sure, it’s a way to keep us guessing!
Takingiteasy,
Fully agree with what you’re saying. I think my point was badly put. I was just trying to illustrate that even with no other strings to ODX’s metaphorical bow, just the LFT production (at full capacity) with an ultra conservative 50p profit per test, still values the company at above today’s SP. Of course we need order confirmation etc and that’s why the prices isn’t there or above already but that will hopefully come.
If the profit is £2 or £3 per test and capacity is used to the max, and the oft stated 4x multiplier is broadly correct, then further SP rises will follow.
THEN factor in other areas of the business and there’s potential for a solid re rate of the company’s mcap. I’m not sure I can see £7 in the short term or a NCYT style rise but I can certainly see healthy profits to be made.
Say ODX get 50p profit per test and c. 100m tests sold pa. that’s £50m revenue just there. Add in a 4x multiplier and that gives a mcap of £200m just for that Very low margin which is of course below everyone’s expectations.
200/180m shares = £1.11 per share so surely that ‘worst case’ means investments at the current price won’t lose money at the very least and indeed make a modest profit. On the alternative side... well who knows the ultimate potential. I think I’d be tempted to call it a day at £2.50 but that’s just my personal preference for individual financial reasons and targets hit
Well there hasn’t been any news from Avacta that their trail is complete but I wasn’t sure whether emergency approval meant the trial didn’t need to be completed before roll out? Not sure if I’m honest. The whole situation is pretty confusing when it comes to LFTs.
BBC reporting...
“ Dr Susan Hopkins, chief medical adviser to NHS Test and Trace, says more than 37,000 cases have been detected in recent weeks using lateral flow testing”
That’s quite a number for a quick test and ‘recent weeks’ suggest it was the Innova test which is deemed to be rubbish. It’s a bit nerve wracking wondering if ODX or AVCT are part of the MHRA approval. Mologic seem to have made good progress and obviously Surescreen is going to be used.
What was the overall dilution from the RI? I’m looking at taking up a holding here for the Covid recovery and wondering what the equivalent price would be to the 12 month high of circa £7 pre RI.
I know we are unlikely to hit the previous highs, even factored for the RI, but I’m trying to put a figure on the dilution (if that makes sense). Cheers
Crocqman - what a great idea. That would’ve stopped PL75 and his band of followers banging on about ‘Sir Al’ and completely clogging up the board. Equally it would’ve stopped RichKen topping up every three seconds on a 1% dip. Both those groups made the board unreadable.
Some much better debate recently after RichKen sold his millions and PL75 had a bit of a climb down.
https://mobile.twitter.com/OmegaDiagnostic/status/1339970521321136129