Member Info for DJW01

Thanks GS

Yes, as I mentioned on X a few days back ( https://x.com/DJW7346/status/2066539661758009487 ) CEC funding is usually 50%, so likely a $28m project , underpinning the "current" 2027 IES revenue estimates, at least for now, as I'm sure there's much more to come.

DJW

All I can go on is the Ofgem statement from the LDES Eligibility Assessment Outcome in September'25 stating that the Initial Decision List of Projects will be offered a C&F in Spring’ 2026 at

https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2025-09/LDES%20Eligibility%20Assessment%20Outcome.pdf

Naturally there could be overruns, but hopefully Ofgem stick to their indicated timelines. Relevant text below.

4.3 Ofgem and NESO will undertake the Project Assessment in Q4 2025, aiming to

publish the Initial Decision List of Projects offered a C&F in Spring’ 2026 with final

decisions on C&F awards expected in Summer’ 2026. Projects will be evaluated

on their economic, strategic, and financial merits, without predetermined

weightings. This approach aligns with the interconnectors cap and floor

regime. Please refer to the LDES Window 1 MCA Framework for more details.

BBN,

Yes, as I outlined in my Hagshaw post on the 7th May, and you have indicated here, the 3R Energy 500MW Hagshaw LDES project (designed around Invinity's Endurium VFBs) has full support of the local community and council planning, with no outstanding objections from any of the numerous environmental, utility, and transport organisations consulted. This should pave the way for Scottish Government Energy Consents Unit (ECU) consent (probably released once the Ofgem initial C&F award list is published).

The second project, Hagshaw Western Expansion (from Spirebrush Ltd - also part of 3R Energy) is a hybrid scheme involving wind turbine installation and 200MW LDES.

https://www.energyconsents.scot/ApplicationDetails.aspx?cr=ECU00004623&T=0

This project still has a few outstanding ecological objections and infrastructure issues to resolve prior to any ECU consent being given. However, today the ECU has posted RSPB Scotland's response from 15th May which gives a mitigation pathway (turbine shutdown if near any Hen Harrier nesting site) to resolve their main objection, and allow the ECU to insert suitable conditional clauses in any consent given.

The other main outstanding issue is to ensure that the Hagshaw Western Expansion 132 kV overhead line connection to the grid at Redshaw Substation is fully aligned with the parallel ECU consultation from SP Energy Networks. This will be resolved through the ECU requested submission of a suitable Environmental Impact Assessment report covering this.

All in all, after the RSPB update today, the Hagshaw Western Expansion project proposal also looks like it should be able to clear all objections, with suitable conditional clauses inserted in any ECU consent.

Whilst I believe that the Hagshaw LDES project has an excellent chance of receiving a C&F award (as outlined previously on 7th May - I can repost here if anyone wishes), the Hagshaw Western Expansion now seems to have a clear pathway to ECU consent too, and would be another potential 200MW Endurium installation right on Invinity's doorstep, subject to C&F award decisions.

Should a C&F be awarded to Hagshaw Western Expansion, then IES would, I believe, again be excellently positioned to win the LDES contract, for the exact same reasons as outlined in my 7th May post.

This will become clearer for us all, once we hopefully receive the Ofgem initial C&F award list by their stated end of May.

DJW

No problem, BBN.

Not sure if it was because I shortened the weblinks using TinyURL that they got removed, or if it is standard practice on LSE (I've not posted for a few years on LSE and had to set up a new account to do so today), but, if there is a way to overcome the Link Removal, I can repost the various links.

Sorry, someone will need to remind me how to get around the Link Removal and I'll repost the links.

Following an anticipated award of a C&F for Hagshaw LDES, Invinity is then well positioned to secure the Hagshaw contract because it combines:

Technology fit (12-hour flow battery design already specified)

Market validation (multiple, existing, global deployments of Invinity VFBs)

Regulatory alignment (meets UK LDES criteria cleanly)

Economic advantage (long life, low degradation, fully recyclable, strongly favoured in cap-and-floor modelling)

UK Manufacturing Benefits (supporting local employment growth and manufacturing expansion)

Offers Sovereign Energy Security (provides UK VFB supply, energy security, and control of supply chain)

Lower risk profile (VFB safety, technology maturity, deliverability)

Naturally, securing an order of this magnitude would be truly transformational for Invinity, and that's only roughly a third of the 16.7GWh eligible flow battery projects that IES could potentially supply under C&F.

Furthermore this is before even considering the massive potential for >500MW LDES for the plethora of Hyperscale Data Centres that have already been given planning approval across the central belt of Scotland (where of course Invinity also have two manufacturing bases), including within Lanarkshire, the, as yet, only currently designated Scottish AI Growth Zone [LINK REMOVED] .

More on this in due course, but lets wait first for the imminent Ofgem release of the successful C&F project list.

DJW

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Thanks BBN for all of your research and posts on here and X.

Yes, undoubtedly for Invinity, the flagship project in the LDES Cap and Floor scheme (C&F) is 3R Energy's Hagshaw LDES proposal with a massive 6GWh energy storage capacity (500MW @12 hr duration). Crucially, their proposal is designed around Invinity's, locally manufactured, vanadium flow battery (VFB), Endurium [LINK REMOVED]

Drilling into the documents included in 3R Energy's proposal reveals that the 6GWh of Invinity's Endurium VFB have a supply value of £1.25 Billion (see details on Pg. 17 of the "R013 Socio Economic Report" at [LINK REMOVED] ), or roughly £200 million/GWh (£200/kWh). This also ties in with the Canaccord broker note number of $250/kWh for large scale Endurium installations.

Note that full Hagshaw LDES project application documents can be accessed at the Scottish Government Energy Consents Unit website here: [LINK REMOVED]

Scanning these documents reveals that this LDES development has full support of the local community and council planning, with no outstanding objections from any of the numerous environmental, utility, and transport organisations consulted. There's also a support letter from Invinity.

I believe that this Hagshaw proposal has an excellent chance of getting awarded a C&F, since the site forms part of an existing significant onshore wind cluster already generating over 300MW of power (but with no long duration storage). 3R Energy also have existing plans to expand and at least double the wind generation capacity in the surrounding areas of the cluster.

3R Energy's role is primarily to take projects through the higher risk consent and early-stage design (i.e. site identification, land agreements, planning and consenting (e.g. Section 36 applications), environmental studies and community engagement, with capital funding coming later from utilities, investors, or project companies. There is precedent for this with 3R Energy and Scottish Power Renewables (a subsidiary of Scottish Power Group, which in turn is part of the utility behemoth, Iberdrola), where they set up a special project company for the Hagshaw Hill repowering project [LINK REMOVED] .

For this, 3R Energy developed and consented the project, with Scottish Power Renewables funding the construction and later taking ownership of the project company. Iberdola would certainly have the capital to fund the ~£1.5 billion Hagshaw LDES construction, so I could foresee a similar scenario here, with the significant added incentive of a guaranteed return under C&F.

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