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Hi D,

I have the first target zone at 700m, after this their is a series of vertical stacked targets to drill through prior to the primary target towards TD.

Based on what we know and the widely discussed drill rate of 30m a day, as soon as tomorrow we should be entering the first main target, if we haven’t already.

Hi DP,

With all due respect and without wanting to sound like a smart ars*. It’s not the market makers that are dictating price, it’s the market based on perceived risk v reward. We have seen the market over the last several weeks experience a sustained period of low liquidity and risk off, potentially over high inflation concerns and the effectiveness of the vaccines which is a whole different debate. If it wasn’t due to current market conditions I believe the share price would already be towards the top end of the trading range.

@30m drill depth a day, I believe the general consensus is that following casing of the sidetrack they are likely through the last reported gas show and will be drilling through what is likely to be highly prospective ground to TD as even an inefficient seal has proven to be an effective seal.

With the benchmark significantly reduced and the reported shows to date continuing to reduce the risk profile of the investment, I see no reason for this not to be consolidating around 28p awaiting next news.

Great link.

You see the stars are aligning and while the sector has seen a rerating due to the initiation of Helium exploration thanks to the accelerating cost of Helium, I don’t for one minute think the bull cycle in helium stocks has even touched the surface.

New investors and existing investors reallocating the percentage weighting of their portfolio, which in the immediate term will have different risk weightings/appetite will enter the equation as the story progresses. For me you can’t help but appreciate the strategic nature of this mineral, it’s one hell of a story.

I think a late decision based on what is learnt during the drilling of Tai-1 is highly likely and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the rig staying on Tai for at least the next 3 weeks.

This certainly is anything but a dry hole and much can be learnt from this drill in a frontier basin regardless of cost. $1.2m per well, if it doubled, as a shareholder, no bother.

One thing is for sure, we are now entering the most interesting part of the drilling schedule. This period should contain multiple gas shows and give us a strong indication as to what we can expect throughout the campaign.

Loving Monday’s, not been this excited since the early days of Gulf Keystone and Eco Atlantic. Game changing potential in what is otherwise a crap market.

Hi skittish,

I agree, the shareholder register is dominated by private and high net worth investors. We need to see the resources proven up during this drilling campaign to attract the appropriate partners who would perhaps take a stake in the company and inadvertently fund the Capex to production and also provide other key corporate strategic benefits which is the more valuable benefit to any partnership.

In affect we are putting our capital at risk for this potential payday whereby our investment is derisked by partnering, strategic investment or debt following a commercial discovery. All indications would suggest that the size of the prize and that it is strategic in nature would attract such interest.

Helium as a commodity is of particular interest to me. While many early investors have seen 4/10x return, my recent investment still feels derisked on the basis of the gas shows to date and the additional 2/3 wells that are yet to be drilled. It’s not until the end of this drilling campaign that the full early revaluation will be realized.

An interesting note on ARB and the respective rumors.

In an earlier post a week or so back I mentioned how strategic assets would be of interest to both countries and large corporations alike. For example Tesla purchased a percentage of Piedmont Lithium thus securing lithium supply for its own means. Many other examples can be provided, however the strategic nature of what could transpire to be a resource price sensitive asset at Rukwa will not be left unfunded and IMO it would be in Helium One’s interest to get major corporation involved to both accelerate commercialization and to help build a strong long lasting relationship with Tanzania with the clout of a major corporation/country behind it.

As is the case with most African countries, China has a major strategic relationship with Tanzania and is a major contributor towards the countries national debt.

Exxon Mobil is one of the main suppliers globally of Helium, again offering a strategic advantage to Helium One in terms of distribution, finance, expertise and it’s obvious ties to America.

But you get my drift, a strategic partnership would both fund major production facilities, help reduce a countries or corporations environmental footprint and more importantly help control a strategic resource in terms of both supply and price.

Yes we have to find it first, but this is now a proven active basin capable of producing significant amounts of Helium at a level that could and will be considered world leading. As a primary Helium resource with historical O&G drilling identifying the appropriate rock formations for the potential commercial storage of helium, even the most inefficient of seals has proven to be effective during the drill to date. In itself significantly lowering the benchmark and derisking what could transpire to be a World class asset. Its not often you get to say that we have a UK/European listed small cap asset for those looking for Helium exposure within their portfolio, and only one place to turn to without looking to Canada/U.S/Australia.

The next two weeks could blow our minds and surpass all expectations.

I would say that some cohorts of the market will always have a tendency of over estimating. (Drill depth).

For me, with what has been clearly communicated to date through various media steams, the well has been successfully sidetracked and as of Tuesday cased. Cased to a level approaching the late 400’s or early 500’s prior to drilling down through the previous gas show and beyond.

As a geologist, I believe the data from the previous show will be analyzed for early release next week with the ‘potential’ for an additional show lower down in multiple instances.

They will continue to report all elevated gas shows as they go deeper, for every show the probability of a successful payzone increases. These truly are exciting times, the next two weeks will more than demonstrate that.

We are privileged to be in a position whereby real time data is shared as they drill to depth. This somewhat derisks the investment.

If you get the opportunity to read in full the article shared earlier today from Bloomberg, I would strongly advise you do. Any serious investor would be and should be drooling at the mouth right now.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-08-28/we-re-running-out-of-helium-and-helium-one-might-have-a-fix

See the earlier link to bypass the payment firewall.

I am enjoying that chart, looks pretty spot on from where I am sitting.

Mentioned in a previous investor presentation and more importantly in the last RNS:

"Visual identification of bubbles in mud returns also offers circumstantial evidence of free helium gas in the sub-surface. However, it is important to note that this interval needs to be logged with wireline before a pay zone can be determined.“

Then in fact the probability of a sample or more importantly a successful flow test has increased.

“We move our first exploration well into our first discovery drill”.

With a big smile.

Also note, this interview was done on the Tuesday. He references ‘news from yesterday’. So casing will have set and they will be drilling down again now.

Would love to see an intraday RNS to wake this market up.

So they were casing the sidetrack, (a very sensible move), this would explain why we haven’t heard more about this exciting gas show, nailed on for a Monday RNS IMO, unless the show continues over a significant number of meters.

DP - the auction you refer to is not what was being referenced. L2 for the last few trading days has represented a strong book going into the last ten minutes of trade, often positive. Without the stock being in auction the book then flips and the gains are whipped out. I must admit, the volume has been fairly weak and no one trade represents any rational for neutralizing the book.

As pointed out this morning, you could sell stock on the offer, not a common theme. Bottom line, they are keeping the price within a trading range, awaiting further news.

As things stand, it is only down to significant personal restraint that I don’t buy more of these due to portfolio allocation. I have no doubt that in the next few weeks/months/years that Helium will be the new buzz word with large institutions positioning due to a significant supply squeeze.

While I recognize that I am late to the story, when looking at the size of the market opportunity and also taking carbon neutral production into consideration, knowing that the ESG funds have trillions of capital to deploy, the environment for what could be the next Saudi Arabia of Helium could be exactly where to place your chips prior to what is like to be exponential growth.

We all know that to date the company likes a Monday RNS, let’s see what happens today, as at some point a bit of market recognition with what the drill bit has achieved so far is not an unrealistic ask.

So I can sell larger chunks of stock right on the offer, hmmm.

Standard pattern for sure. News tomorrow or Monday for me, will change the game

It feels as if that once the churn has finished, with decent demand for stock that this will continue north in short order.

How big*

You simply can’t rule out news at any point at this stage IMO. Intraday is a strong possibility due to the price sensitivity of what could be disclosed.

I wouldn’t put it past them to cement casing following the penetration to depth of this recent gas show in order to protect the potential zone and secure the sidetrack, thoughts?