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Three additional factors now worth bearing mind:

1. We now have a proven high re-charge helium basin
2. We should see a significant revision to basin P50 reserves based on inefficient but effective seals trapping helium
3. America’s National helium reserve reaches depletion in September this year which could cause significant publicity and increase money flow into the Plc’s

Perfect storm, not to mention that this is Primary helium

Hi Trek,

I am confused, If you have no cash to trade how can you then invest heavily if it drops?

I agree that in many instances, especially when it comes to high risk exploration, it is perfectly normal to see opinions change in line with an individuals book. This will include but is not limited to, reducing exposure prior to results and/or in the most blatant and disrespectful or cases, a significant change of tone on public forums. It only grates as it insults existing investors intelligence.

In all honesty, DM’s latest interview and stated hope that this first exploration well becomes our first discovery well must be based on the data he has seen to date. It would imply that the second gas show is likely to be presented as a discovery IMO.

Having benefited from first move advantage, the land grab to date and multiple identified prospects have now been further derisked due to the proven helium charge within the basin, and of course a better understanding of the geology.

We can also now consider that with an inefficient seal now being characterized as an effective seal in two instances, our COS has also increased significantly.

I totally agree that in the event that this well has to be abandoned due to technical issues (IMO, pure speculation at this stage and highly unlikely), a drop in the share price would be matched by willing buyers, many of which will be those that have derisked prior to results. Especially when this is the first of four wells and who is to say that drill bit will ever stop turning in the event of success. PANR fall from 35p to 18p and then rerating to 60p odd is a classic example. For an exploration play, it remains a well balanced risk v reward investment with plenty of scope to the upside.

Expect the ESG funds to flow at some point during the drilling campaign in the event of a confirmed discovery and then commercial milestone.

https://www.reuters.com/article/sponsored/esg-fad-or-future

With DM on the drill site, I see little reason for him to communicate with the Nomad/broker about progress to date until any data has been analyzed prior to notification (RNS).

Taking into consideration the last gas show that was known several days prior to its announcement as they were fishing and then sidetracking, it is evident that not all gas shows are announced in real time.

We are now drilling through vertically stacked targets, do you think he would want to announce multiple gas shows a day, every other day or concentrate on hitting a particular depth (700/900m) and then report?

While I realize he is not the driller, he is analyzing data in real time to allow him to consider his next drill target.

Chips are on table, you game!?!

Nice chart Josh, it was possible to sell lots of stock in large quantities throughout the day and including into close. Next week I would expect an RNS of some description, the next two weeks should be full of excitement. Can’t wait!

That’s Pollack’s first post. I have L2 and unless Pollack term of ‘big steady ’ refers to the £800 smaller trades that I am seeing, then I suppose it’s depends on the size of your pocket :-S

Based on what we know so far and assuming drilling is ongoing I expect the following:

End of day drill depth

23rd - 800m
30th - 1040m
4th - TD
9th - Wireline and sample attempt completed

Looking past the obvious overrun in the drilling schedule I believe it is due to this lead time that the demob of drilling to a new location is yet to be announced. With DM on site accessing the underlying data in real time, I think he will want to gain as much data as possible before making a decision on this.

In the interim we are drilling through what has been described as vertically stacked targets between 700m and 900m, and with the additional shows we have had to date via what has been described as an inefficient yet effective seal, god knows what else. For this reason rather than having to release multiple updates, it is my opinion that they will drill to 900m before casing and providing an update as soon as Monday but as late as Wednesday.

At this stage in the drilling program and due to the delays to date wild speculation and opinions such as mine will lead to everything being on the table. But what is clear is that I’d rather we drill a promising well slowly than a dry hole quickly.

All to play for still!

Looks like @shagged got the boner he was looking for, do not engage! He won’t be able to play!

Just to add, the previous $1.2m cost per well is so inexpensive in relation to current market cap, even if that number doubled for the first well on the basis of the encouraging and invaluable data they are gaining, I could more than live with that.

I have minimal drilling knowledge and therefore rely on others. My question is, if the highly encouraging gas show in the red sandstone formation continued over a longer depth, would it not make sense to case the well at more regular intervals in order to protect the formation from mud saturation that would make it harder to recover gas samples as part of the third stage of the recovery process? This in turn justifying the slower drill speed?

To date we are aware via RNS of three casing intervals to approx 500m

I think they would be drilling at 740/770m today if we assume that the cementing of the casing that was referred to in last Tuesday’s interview was dry and ready to drill from Wednesday. I am again assuming 30m drill depth a day.

As was mentioned in that interview, a dry well would be drilled faster, an encouraging well would be drilled slower and would also allow them to gain significant knowledge as to how to drill the next 2/3 wells in quicker fashion regardless of the outcome.

Beautiful rain, beautiful :-)

Intensify. It is my opinion that the market will get wind of a submitted RNS if we were to see a week day publication that doesn’t fall on a Monday. They will potentially swing it low or high, this won’t necessarily be indicative of the result once RNS’d but will be enough to cause an increase in volume and wild speculation.

Can’t wait!

We won’t even enter the primary zone until the 2/3rd August at a drill speed of 30m a day as per previous drill rate discussions.

I can understand why some peoples risk tolerance is different, but I’m not sure why anyone would want to exit during the drilling of the effective ‘Payzone’, or more specifically the stacked targets of interest.

However, it’s a very good sign for when the next RNS lands in terms of forward projection of price in the event of good news.

It was a ‘UT’ and the book still very much remains at the mid price before close. Watch it open at that mid price. Chill!

DM is now known to hold info. and specifically gas shows back from the market. It was possible that he could of announced the last gas show earlier, but decided to hold it back which was a smart move.

I think further information will be provided on that gas show once they hit the next. IMO we should be entering the first zone at around 700m today, the next 4 trading days could offer some excitement.

This could be the perfect storm. If/when further positive news is delivered to the market, as investors have taken money off the table across a broad range of equities, we should see plenty of free capital waiting to be reallocated to those with positive momentum.

I really hope that the next RNS ‘gas show’ will contain percentage of helium as well as total thickness.

I have wondered that if the last reported gas show continues over an extended depth that they may drop the wireline for this area early. This early data may help them choose their next target at an early stage, especially if the red sandstone is more prospective than first thought. Is that possible at this stage?

Your welcome.

Posts from 16th May I believe, hope that helps

D,

Taken from @seisprocessor and his/her valuable contribution to date. Well worth clicking on historical posts as lots of useful contribution, i am sure you have engaged before?

Reported as a buy given the spread but in all honesty it could just as easily be a worked sell as the booked turned a little negative in the last 10 minutes or so. It’s anyone’s guess, but if it is our persistent seller, that could be one and done.