From forums like this to twitter, the general activity has fallen considerably as the hot money chases a new horizons.
Let’s not forget that the expectation of news from our last update grows every closer and our steadily increasing share price is starting to move before the event.
With news imminent on multiple fronts, anyone patiently waiting will be rewarded handsomely. Just think of the reaction to the share price when the Avacta test is being reported by mainstream media.
Our time is coming.
Volume was incredible in the auction and further volume was reported this morning from late yesterday.
Market makers are prepared to buy significant levels of stock off me this morning above bid as they must be trying to balance the books.
Technically the chart now looks very strong.
Today should be a very good day imo
That drop was short and shallow, Fcap May of just got aggressive and this will go blue Imo.
With 40% of the share register having been traded in the last 11 trading days we can be reasonably confident that the shareholder register would have got rid of many of the bed wetters, profit takers and bored shareholders and that new shareholders with new time frames/more patience/new share price targets are present.
I for one originally missed the extensive Covid gains and had been waiting for the share price to fall back as an opportunity to join the affair, and what a time to join.
Some will be hoping for the normal morning drop to buy slightly lower, but imo even if it comes, further new money is desperate to join the story at the business end of proceedings.
In conjunction with the AZN update which was a fairly immaterial event in terms of share price reaction, I think it’s fair to say that the market has now done a good job in forward pricing the best case scenario for future vaccine news. One could argue that the risk now lies to the upside as far as vaccine role out is concerned.
Risk: Neutral
BAMS test is making very good progress and various reports have suggested that the results are at least as good as a PCR test, but cheaper. Commercial progress is being made and evaluation is further down the line than I think many have given Avct credit for.
Risk: Low
Elisa test is also making good commercial progress and I believe will be announced in conjunction with the BAMS commercial agreement.
Risk: Low
Nasel LFT has achieved sensitivity within range and mass production. With many near term catalysts/milestones, a great addition to the product mix. When sensitivity and specificity is announced in conjunction with a wider trial, I expect this to gain significant traction as it fills the massive void in supply that is obviously apparent.
Risk: Neutral/Low
Saliva LFT, while great progress has been made it provides the greatest risk but perhaps the highest upside if it does achieve TT. Knowone is giving it any chance of success, for the right reasons? Maybe, maybe not.
Risk: High
My point being at the current market cap of £275m with net cash of £40/50m, the proposition is materially more attractive at 109p compared to 185p. With many near term catalysts likely to deliver a strong level of newsflow, yes I can understand the disappointment in terms of delays and empty promises, but at the same time the share price offers the greatest level of opportunity given the current risk profile.
Everything we hoped the government would introduce in terms of mass testing and the moonshot has been delivered, and more. It’s the perfect storm, we WILL have a number of tests, we have a secured a percentage of the sovereign supply chain, and we WILL generate significant revenue. It’s just a case of time.
This for me is not the time to be influenced by others and trade on emotions, my position is clear.
https://www.***************************/avacta-group-make-significant-progress-with-its-highly-scalable-lateral-flow-test-interview/412940598
Great progress made on saliva LFT alongside nasel
LFT which will provide direct competition to foreign LFT’s.
Also confirming that this is a very busy period for AVCT and therefore further material updates will drive the share price at the business end of product launches.
Seen this every day for two weeks now, fall wasn’t as much but that is a gift from the mm’s.
A direct competitor to the current LFT tests on the market. Made in England and less invasive.
BAMS also close to market that provide results similar to that of PCR testing but quicker and cheaper.
If I was to be worried I would be over at NCYT looking at AVCT as a massive threat to my market share. Luckily we need all the testing we can get, but when that market need reduces, the most competitive tests survive.
Welcome AVCT - we have an LFT test that can be mass produced. Massive tick.
It’s great to get an update, an update that further derisks the proposition and will no doubt be expanded on in an interview in the coming days.
Progress on all fronts and more importantly sensitivity within range for a product that can be mass produced.
Massive derisking event today and the share price is yet to reflect this due to the drop of two weeks ago. Back to £2 and above
Mapsciences have completed their MS validation, now awaiting approval. It can only be Avacta.
We didn’t get a speeding ticket on the way down and imo we are unlikely to get a speeding ticket on the way up, unless the share price was to move from here to ATH in one sharp sustained move over a short period.
Fact of the matter is, we have a significant number of updates pending:
- TT and professional use validation timelines
- BAMS validation results and commercial contract disclosure
- Confirmation of affirmer in house and external production expansion
- Increase in manufacturing capacity
- Submission of AVA for phase I trials
And without going over the top you get my point.
Now assuming they deliver, 100p and even 140p is to lower base to start from for all this news to drop as the risk reward is very attractive at these levels. When significant shareholder returns remain possible below a certain price (200p imo), the market will move before the event and allow the RNS to surprise to the upside as a derisking commercial event.
With the rise likely to continue to factor in the above, this is the reason for the move. We also know that the market has now priced in the vaccine news, yes the mm will continue to play games on vaccine updates but as per this mornings update from AZN, the reaction across the board was relatively muted.
To confirm if Finncap steps away from 139p, then we are on our way Imo.
Still undervalued with a massive bottleneck of news due to support any continued rise likely in the immediate/short term.
It’s not only cheap, it’s woken everyone up to what will happen when a deluge of news hits the market between now and year end.
I am as excited as a pig in sh*t
I hope it does, it will catch the traders out. What would be good to see is the intraday RNS that catches out the hot money and preserves the higher gains for those who had the balls to hold during the last drop.
Patience will be rewarded.
Yesterday from 15:00 you could see the book flip in such a way that the volume was not representative of a technical breakout or dead cat bounce.
Abnormal volume and price reaction was indicative of a leak of some description. Someone knows something and an intraday RNS is as likely as a 07:00 RNS in my view.
To many Robinhood investors or squealing shorters constantly looking for an excuse. Patience will continue to be rewarded, that how the market works.
Alastair Smith said in an interview that whilst his preference was to source production in the UK as far as possible, this would rely on its manufacturing partners expanding capacity beyond its current commitment.
Abington intends to list to raise capital which in turn would increase its production capacity. What about Odx? Will we enter into a partnership with them, with a view to Odx raising capital to fund production capacity?
It would be a highly profitable venture for all concerned as rapid testing demand far outstrips supply.
A material change to the LFT would of required an RNS.
I believe the website content has been updated, nothing more, nothing less.
A ‘national initiative’ evaluating BAMS MS. Very surprised to see a reply to that to. Must be pretty special to be a national initiative.
When listening to the presentation around BAMS and the words used to emphasis just how impressive this test was, it comes as no surprise to know that commercial agreements are in place and waiting to be disclosed upon conclusion of these results.
It’s all coming together, as painstakingly slow as it might seem to frustrated short/medium/long term investors.
On completion of BAMS validation and commercial launch alone I can see the share price recovering to £2 +. If you include the TT for the LFT and the level of national attention those tests will receive on a national basis it’s not impossible to see the massive blue sky potential when they deliver.
And it is ‘when’ and not ‘if’ and exactly why I’m a shareholder.
Has anyone had any dialogue with either of them recently?
ODX were torn to shreds during a period of inactivity a few months ago and then addressed the issue accordingly, assisted by news flow. This reminds me of ODX as 35p as it melted down.