Member Info for discopablo

Thanks Troajan. I found how to search for comments by members and have got his comments. I need to read and understand and then update I think.

Thanks again for your help.

Thanks Troajan. A reply from a proper person. Honestly, I don't know why people come on here and simply post horrible unhelpful comments.

OK, so if we're in agreement then in reality it shouldn't take too long before we get up to break even given the fact that the plant was only operating on a reduced basis in December plus the fact that October and November were not as good as December.

Is southwesterner a poster on here? I should like to see their comments for myself.

Cheers! All the best.

That's absolutely wonderful of you Goingunderground. Thanks so much for your help.

Opex per the FID was $145m. Based on 1,380,000 mtu that equates to $105 per mtu.

In the same FID, opex per mtu is stated at $94. I am going to go with the higher of the 2 figures.

That would mean per the FID that we had opex costs in Q4 of $703,290, resulting in a profit before interest and tax of $904,230. I am assuming that fixed costs are included in the $105 as there is no mention of them being excluded in the FID.

Interest I think is something like 12.5% on $50m of BR loan which equates to $1,562,500 per quarter.

Loss after interest will therefore be $658,270.

$658,270 in profitable production terms equates to a further 4,876 mtu per quarter, meaning break even on the above analysis is only 46,296 mtu per annum.

That seems quite low - does anybody have an opinion on my calculations? I feel I must be going wrong somewhere!!

We've just done 6,698 in Q4 - does that roughly equate to $1,607,520 if the price is $240 per mtu?

Apologies for this - there just seem to be a lot of units being banded around with not enough equivalent financial information in the RNS.

Ah - just found it!! First 2 years 180,000 mtu/a and then next 4 years 255,000 mtu/a.

This equates to 1,380,000 mtu over 6 years.

Hi All

I've been doing a bit of reading this morning and trying to calculate a P&L based on what we know from frankly the very little amount of financial information in the public arena.

I'm coming unstuck over the units of measurement. I went back and had a look at the FID which predicted $341m of revenue over 6 years, based on I think 2,700 mtu in years 1 and 2 and then 4,000 mtu in years 3 to 6 inclusive. That gives total mtu production of 21,400 over 6 years.

Can anybody tell me how 21,400 mtu equates to revenue of $341m at a price of, say, $240 per mtu? I am clearly missins something and would ask that somebody in the know points out where I'm going wrong!

Thanks in advance!

I think that's an excellent point. an updated plan would be welcome. However, production has to be fixed first. You wouldn't look at a burning building and think ' i wonder what this will look like when the fire is out.' you'd put it out first and then assess.

A positive and encouraging update. I've topped up this morning also. Interesting to note that December was the best month in the quarter which shows the improvement continues to be an upward spiral and ought to just get better and better. I wonder if we start to see a push to 0.15.

Ollcity, thank you for that. I am prepared to assume your knowledge of how plant works will be better than mine, given mine tends to zero. To clarify, what you are saying is that my simple calculations, whereby I have scaled up production by simply multiplying by 7 over 3, will more than likely not provide the complete picture and that there are scale benefits by operating for longer periods. I suppose that makes sense to me due to time spent 'stop-starting'.

So if anything, my calculations, everything else being equal, almost paint a worst case scenario.

Bob - hope all's well with you.

Thanks for your help GIT. I need to go away/ find time to look at the break even point.

Safety - that would make sense to me.

Thanks GIT - knew I could rely on you to reply.

So tonnage was 54.7 tons, of which 21.6 was September, albeit on a 3 day week.

For a 7 day week at September levels, tonnage could be per month 51.84. Break even is 125 I seem to recall, so assuming all else is equal, we need to double plus a half our current production run rate, not increase it 6 fold.

Dear Great and Good of this BB, not for the first time I am a little confused.

What is the difference between 'concentrate production' and 'contained metal' please?

Many thanks in advance!

dreamingof, I'm pretty confident that this will come good to be honest. I don't know when, but I don't mind waiting.

BlackHopper, speaking for only myself, I should imagine if I thought about it for a long period of time then gutting would indeed be the word. Fortunately, I have plenty to occupy my mind and I hope that's the same for all LTHs.

Just topped up 2.7m at 0.1133.

Don't understand sorry!

Could be me lol! I thought I'd read somewhere that drilling had started in a different place to that which was originally intended? I am highly likely to be wrong!!

AA - I assume GIT means that he would not expect Blackrock to throw good money after bad - and I would tend to agree.

I honestly don't think there's any need on your part to talk to him in the way you are. It's all rather unsavoury and needless in my opinion. Perhaps we should all take a step back.