Member Info for Dip666

Freddie, Bamps is not in the telegram groups and news flash... 1300 plus members with alternative views on telegram amongst member's.

Based from Shaun's comments in the last Q&A it appears they're still working planning on releasing by year end but are going to ask Newmont to peer review once they take over fully as they'd planned to do with Newcrest - and it should be released unless Newmont don't strongly oppose it. Also seems that they're still finalising the draft internally from his response than having gone out to external peer review yet.

Obviously there might be more going on behind the scenes or might occur before it's released (i.e bid or acquisition scenarios) which means it makes sense holding off or perhaps even releasing against Newmont's desires as they did around the Option Exercise.

Otherwise I expect if things stay as they appear, which seems to be potential early 2024 before Newmont express their plans for Hav/Telfer , I'm expecting an MRE update by year end unless GGP see a strong chance of Newmont looking at divesting Hav/Telfer and decide to hold off.

Notes from LSE WEBINAR & Live Q&A - 21 SEPT 2023

https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=798

* okay let's give you a simpler question about the independent MRE that you said you were going to going to publish what update can you give on progress and did NCM take up your offer of being involved in the peer review

- so that we continue to work on that technically we will so at the right time once that work is we think in more of a final draft form we would share that with them and who knows that might kind of enter around that transition with the Newmont ownership

- so you this a slightly more complex period than it was in March 2022 when I think we last independently released a MRE

- that said we're committed to getting the work done we continue to walk that forward I'd like to achieve that December quarter timetable that we set for ourselves I might just you know add that you know we will be mindful of you know we value the relationship with Newcrest and Newmont

- it's always been our preference to release Resources and Reserve updates with the partner so if Newmont does come in I think we would want to continue to give them that same opportunity for peer review but that work is being undertaken both internally we'll also get it externally reviewed for confirmation and of course my expectation is our joint venture partner would also want a peer review and we would appreciate and want that to happen

Hi Bamps

Someone in TG Groups said he repeated an opinion that a buyer would“want the shares i.e. GGP as a whole rather than purely Havieron. He wasn't disagreed with in TG Group which had plenty attending too so just assumed this was what happened ;-)

Hi Red, ranking is in order of probability of each scenario being the one that actually comes to play out after the deal is finalised :-)

- he considered NEM deciding to divest both assets as most likely outcome

- followed by them buying GGP as second most likely

- and the JV continuing as least likely outcome.

Personally I was thinking this a very open field with the JV still continuing as a very close leader to an almost equal chance in 2nd place of divestment or acquisition depending on whether

- NEM favour ROI from Hav/Telfer with a longer term focus VS short term outlook of meeting $2bn optimisation target ASAP.

Pretty clear cut mate, from his informal Town Hall he considered the three scenarios and ranked as more or less likely in his opinion as below :

1/ Divest Hav/Telfer

2/ Acquire GGP's stake (someone in TG said he stressed more likely buy GGP outright)

3/ Continue JV as planned with GGP

Link below to the notes (and link to view) the Webinar Q&A session that proceeded the F2F event:

https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=798

@Ace - Tymers 'sources' are as high up as you can get... in the table condiments market ... Heinz, and Daddies :-)

Food for thought... when Sisu was posting about his sources saying Oz II's being excited about GGP listing on ASX, many chose to believe it and now he usclaiming a 12p bid being considered, he's fallen from grace..

Does feel that while he was saying what folk want to hear he wasn't being questioned by many if us, had he suggested 25p today I bet he would have got less scorn?

Important to consider if we can verify any claims from someone anonymous claiming sources especially if no history of bringing real information to the table whether what they are saying is positive or negative IMO :-))

Simon - by this I mean I'm not sure exactly what SP or level of bid would need to be put in front of us exactly or rejected without doing so, as we saw with NCM, it was a leak that brought the whole scenario to light before the final price point was agreed.

And read my post properly, I said I wasn't dismissing it completely that they might be considering a bid, but a lot for NEM to be doing.

Nemwont have a huge transaction to conclude, then integrate all the assets into their own corporate framework,H/S procedures, restructure, cut staff, move quickly on strategising and confirming which assets to retain/divest to a target of $2bn within 2 years, look for $500m in annual synergies and supposedly focusing on the smaller detail already... won't completely dispute this but I doubt it personally.

And this 12p rumour almost seems like it might be to entice speculative buying for those looking for a quick 100% profit...

I have no idea if Shaun would be required to put this in front of us for consideration but this reminds me of Beetham starting bid rumours while he was selling... ironically also at 12p.

The DFS has a sunset date according to SD from a previous interview and from latest interview seems to be needed to be issued once decline hits ore body to ensure a mining plan has been agreed and also the rest of the development required to be initiated for production.

Once DFS issued the DTM is suppose to follow very quickly too from his comments - so it seems as if to delay the mine they'd have to actually vote against a DTM, which then allows GGP to acquire at FMV for 100%.

Freddie, does it make financial sense for NEM to start the process of decommissioning Telfer and caretake for 5 years to then recommence Havieron/Telfer accruing more costs, applications and approvals and no doubt safety checks etc. and trying to employ so many staff in such a hard market to retain and find staff which won't be solved in a mere few years?

Alternatively, they just need to spend a bit more time and money and have a profitable asset with ability to grow production profile within the next decade through bulk or more selective mining of other zones. Or just sell it of course or if so desperate to own outright - then buy us out.

I thought it was a funny response Freddo :-)

But if you meant what you said - you've seen my rebuttal thanking you for illustrating my point made to Toffers earlier insinuating things like sharing sat pics are done to trick folk.

Take in any information shared if you value it, verify it and then make up your own mind on what it might mean.

Simple as that really!

Find your own answers Freddie, no one's forcing you to read my posts or anyone else's for that matter?

Most of us mature enough to use these boards to share and debate opinions to try and form our own conclusions, what you conclude with any research or information after verifying the source should be through your OWN analysis not listening to everyone else - which goes back to my earlier post today really on that matter doesn't it?

THANK YOU for helping me demonstrate my point :-)

And follow up with a The Price Is Right special with Tymers.... LOL

freddie - i think we should set up a special blind date episode on ggphelp's youtube channel for you, dobbs and iot with toffers.

the one who ****s off fellow shareholders the most get's the date... wonder if br can pull off a cilla black scouse accent 🤣

Freddie- let's explore the CONTEXT you were sharing my full name and also making a point to mention the city I live in shall we? Definitely acting like a weirdo so you got banned... .you've apologised previously so I assume you now saw the error of your ways.

Also, predicting the Option Exercise outcome and a FMV was going to be difficult which is EXACTLY what I concluded after looking into the mechanism of the 5% exercise and studying valuation methods for exploration projects and warned that massive disparity of values could still be termed 'FMV' and and remain compliant with the Valmin Code.

At least through some of our efforts in research and contacting GGP we were all able to understand what was happening, understand that we'd end up with a conservative value based off PFS and why GGP was creating it's own MRE to minimise this as much as possible.

The same applies for clarifying matters such as Last right of refusal which will be critical in how various scenarios are played out. It's not always about predicting an outcome but gaining a better understanding of what is going on, knowledge gained is never wasted.

Also in relation to questiosn about GGP ability to fund and last right of refusal the excerpt below was during March Town Hall Q&A in the webinar:

https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=678

Excerpt from a long answer to question below and also mentions last right of refusal:

*Okay now everyone has been very patient and they've listened for a very long time and that it really is time that we talked about the consequences of Newmont attempting to you know bidding for Newcrest, Chris T sums asks an excellent opening question, what's the latest on the Newmont bid and how may it affect GGP which is a great first question I think..

- I think you know the and that would be really interesting for us and then the opportunities that come out of that and one of the things that Tom Palmer who is the CEO of Newmont has said is that they're not trying to make their business more complex

- they would then consider their portfolio and try to optimize it such they have a smaller number of bigger assets

- now I think Havieron is an unbelievably good asset, I think it sits in the portfolios major and effectively presently does having said that the scale is not the size of some of the other assets so to compare it to Cadia which is 32 million tons per annum about in my mind whilst we're doing three million tons per annum, 70% is distributable to Newcrest or Newmont in time

- so that's 2.1 million times per annum it is a different scale so if a mining company wanted to focus on its larger assets perhaps that creates an opportunity for us, I think some of the steps we've taken over the last well particularly the last six months to have the debt in place which is scalable. to have the equity support and the institutional support in place is really important

- to have a Cornerstone shareholder particularly the nature of Wyloo which has a track history of supporting sensible acquisitions I think is a huge opportunity for us

- the credibility of the board we have the credibility of the management team we have to be seen as a preferred counterparty and counterparty with the financial resources to complete I think all put us in a really good position to take advantage whatever opportunities come

- I think in addition to that just remind people we have a really strong last right of refusal, we would absolutely pursue those rights under a scenario but our base case is really good too, we own 30% of a world-class asset that will develop a stream of cash flows that we can leverage but it's a really exciting time for us and I think the optionality or the option value in our stock right now around those events is really significant

Also, just a bit more food for thought on the approach Tom Palmer has voiced for the growth portfolio optimisation strategy.

"Asked whether portfolio optimisation was code for divestments, Mr Palmer said there were many ways to optimise a portfolio.

“It will come from two areas, we are certainly looking for value over volume, so as we work our way through understanding the portfolio, we will be making judgements about what our go-forward portfolio is,” he said.

Mr Palmer said the second aspect of portfolio optimisation would be to assess, rank and sequence the growth projects within the combined group, which he said was an “embarrassment of riches”.

“It is understanding each of those projects, their sequence, their competition for capital, ensuring we have got a good capital allocation strategy,” he said.

“As you combine the two portfolios we are likely to look at the rate at which we spend money, look at how the different projects come together and we are likely to be able to generate cash that comes from potentially that re-sequencing approach.”

Peter Tomsett said the deal would bring forward the value for Newcrest shareholders that lay in growth projects that could take years and billions of dollars to develop.

“Our shareholders stand to benefit for decades to come from being part of the world’s leading gold company; one that will have a sector-leading production profile, global growth opportunities, and increasing copper exposure,” he said."

https://12ft.io/proxy?ref=&q=https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/newmont-wins-with-its-basic-plan-to-grow-newcrest-20230515-p5d8cv

Toffers - plenty of folk onTG, Twitter or otherwise who've collaborated with others and work very hard in personal time to share useful information for the benefit of everyone. It is up to everybody to firstly ensure they do enough homework to actually understand certain things and evaluate for themsleves. I don't need transcripts, usually I keep short-hand notes but issue is only I woudl understand them and not effective as copying and pasting excerpts from a transcript to verify matters.

Let's look at 'aerial updates'... I know how to research sat pics myself and initially when I invested here made sure I was logging in and seeing what was being shared with my own eyes and then I waited for drill results to reflect the intel before I started treating them as useful. I don't take anything at face value until I've verified and understood it for myself and gained trust in the source.

That includes sat pics, shorting info. , GDXJ or any geo or engineering opinions around Valuations, MRE's or the DFS as I ensure I understand something before I factor it into my decisions and liek many I've shared my work in breaking down and understanding these areas.

Human nature in that if there is a bad outcome such as current SP, many turn on those who stick their neck out and have opinions and shared information rather than take any accountability for their own investing decisions.

You seem unable as many others to separate fundamentals such as those Havieron offers against business challenges and events which also factor into the SP. No one was ever wrong about the fundamentals around Havieron, what has been an issue is the Option Exercise (which on the surface seemed as a funding instrument initially to ensure we could meet our obligations ) and Newmont transaction delaying DFS/DTM and macro headwinds, who was going to predict the first two?

Toffers - surprised you haven't sold if you think we're going to get ripped off so strongly... cut your losses now? You were going on about 25p share offers from Rio or something the other day weren't you, no one can keep up with you :-)

'Don't blame me TomE and the rest who like to have a go, blame Tom Palmer of Newmont, he's caused this situation and the whole scenario is out of our control. We are a JV partner with Newcrest yet we have absolutely no control, and therein lies the problem. So if Palmer divests, then what? we either have to fiddle to his tune as to what he wants for the 70% or we risk him selling the 70% to another miner, who we may or may not get on with, and the transfer of power goes to them, '

- We have last right of refusal across the asset according to Shaun, so I think on a potential change of control we can also match any offer and surely there would have been something in JVA about this as par for the course or any party being unable to fund their share of costs etc. Standard protection for either party etc.

'or he takes our stake for very little no doubt, and sells the whole lot for Newmont to another miner, probably for far more than what he will be willing to give us. We're powerless when it comes to Newmont and unless Day is prepared to possibly pay a very extortionate price for the 70% on first dibs, then we're stuck with whatever happens, providing, of course, that the vote goes through?'

- Perhaps your mates at Rio lol

- Any buyer is going to want a good price not overpay

- NEM know Wyloo have a history of pushing bids up where they have a stake in a target company/asset.

- Anyone wanting sole ownership of Havieron will also need to negotiate with us for 30% or be stuck with us including Newmont and need to put across a deal that Shaun has to put in front of SH's to vote upon.

- GGP don't have to pay an extortionate amount unless one comes in from elsewhere and decide to match which SH's would have a say in

- I think as these things go, NCM and NEM won over their major shareholders (some mutual) and the deal will be voted through, the scheme booklet was written to help grease the deal vs negate a positive outcome as NCM BOD have approved it, no major shareholders at NCM seem to have been publicly upset at lack of MRE updates for instance... just a few PI's perhaps on HotCopper chat forum I imagine.

'If he doesn't divest, then it's a different scenario alltogether, but the press have given the impression that Palmer has said that he intends to divest non core assets.'

- Many would agree that the NEM team will likely consider Telfer/Hav as non-core with SLOS production profile and time required to build up with bulk mining,

- You either trust our team will negotiate an acquisition well

- Any funding partners won't back a poor deal and nor will shareholders

- If so convinced GGP will end up shafted you and others such as Dobbs and LoftMonkey should play safe and cut your losses now?

It's LAST not first right of refusal guys, he reconfirmed this right at the outset in last weeks Q&A during the webinar while making a long answer to the question below from Donald:

* I think we should start at the start today and let's go holistic , mining giant Newmont are taking over GGP’s JV partner Newcrest what are the implications for GGP’s 30% stake they have of Havieron and indeed for Telfer (full ownership) so what are the different ways that this might play out Shaun let’s let's start you big and strategic?

- and of course we also hold the last right of refusal across the asset itself so I think there's plenty of opportunity there I think all are good outcomes I think Newmont will be decisive but the development importantly of Havieron will continue unimpeded regardless of whether it's Newcrest Newmont or Greatland or what combination there is of these groups

https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=798