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@Freddie, we were told in TH webinar that decline work is recommencing in H2:
https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=896
* Okay that's a very interesting answer and slightly different from the one that you gave to it previously so I'm intrigued by that, okay Shaun let's turn to some more operational questions and here we go this is this is today's favourite question by a mile and it's not the Newmont question actually, it's the aquifer (Lower Contained Aquifer).
Alan, Dip, Wendy, Alan, Philip, Steve all ask about the aquifer, I mean basically they're saying has the lower aquifer been dewatered yet, I think you indicated it was still work in progress and if so when will drilling restart, will drilling restart and will the water cause any long-term problems? So I've sort of bundled all those questions into one really.
- no look it's good to unpack and I did try to talk this a little bit on the slide but let me augment that
- so the dewatering continues there's no change and the depressurization from memory there's six bore holes into it which is extracting that water
- look this has always expected to take us into the second half of the year when we first articulated it, there's no change as we sit here today I don't think I've received any information which suggests it would take longer or that the flow rates are higher
- at the margin I think you know we've received at least anecdotally pretty you know positive indications of where that's headed
- I think importantly though you know, we in parallel with that depressurization and dewatering process we gather data we gather flow rates, we get an understanding and then that needs to be effectively reassessed in a model to re-calibrate for the actual flow rates we're seeing from those bore holes as opposed to like the initial test bore holes
- so we think you know that's you know a positive to have more information, we think once we have that information we can recalibrate and give more definitive guidance but right now I don't see there being any changes to where we spoke you know when we first talked to the market about this I'll just say in the December quarter of 2023 where we see the dewatering and depressurization just continuing into that second half of the year and I don't see this being particularly different to how we tackled the upper contained aquifer or the middle contained aquifer
- the approach to the lower contained aquifer is exactly the same it's punch into it put some bore holes in depressurize, dewater, get flow rates down to their sustainable level set up the pumping infrastructure and then drive through it as you do with any mine that generates water which is most mines in Australia because aquifers are just a part of the landscape
- but you know the flow rates at this mine are not particularly high so I think you know timing is always something people have a focus on but I think from a technical risk this is a pretty understood feature in the Australian underg
What was he going to say Freddie besides:
- aquifers are a normal part of underground mining
- perhaps a bit of geo related info. on how they are formed that you could google
- that he doesn't have any access to information we don't as a normal (albeit major) shareholder now
- and that he expects it to be dealt with and decline to be restarted... but unsure of exacttimeframes outside the loose H2 given by Shaun
- and that would have just ended up with some saying 'oh he would say that' etc.
Actions talk louder than words in this scenario now, that decline should be restarted at some point IMO around H2 and in meantime all we can do is keep asking Shaun or Newmont IR for an update, no one else can really give any meaningful updates, only opinions.
LOL Ace, I always say a White Knight is only ever one step away from turning into a White Shark :-)
I see you posted earlier you thought Twiggy might pick up Winu too, certainly won't discount as I know you know the local landscape and industry particularly well. All i can say is in that eventuality, hopefully we get a decent offer, more than a few might be happier for a shorter term cash-out due to the last few years.
Notes from GGPHelp interview with Callum Baxter - 08 Mar 2024:
Callum Baxter, Former Chief Geologist, and finder of Havieron stopped by for a chat and a catch up with all things Greatland Gold PLC with Liam at GGPHelp TV.
https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=900
GGPCHAT is back up so notes also posted on there now:
https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=896
PDF inc. Slides as below:
https://tinyurl.com/2bhjb3dv
Hi Rotherby, hope all good mate - don't forget the very dated data cut-off point as GGP themselves mentioned as below in an RNS in a protective capacity on 08th March after the valuation was published, these points could now work from Newmont's perspective. I suspect though that NEM will be in a mood to get a quick good deal based on the GS valuation to help meet that $2bn target within the next year as their shareholders are less focused on the minute detail on each asset.
From 08/09/23 RNS:
As is customary, the Newcrest scheme circular attaches an independent assessment by an Australian valuation advisory firm, Grant Samuel & Associates Pty Ltd (Grant Samuel), as to whether, in their opinion, the transaction is in the best interests of Newcrest shareholders. The assessment was produced by Grant Samuel independently of Newcrest. The Grant Samuel assessment includes a valuation for each material project in the Newcrest portfolio. In respect of Havieron, it is noted that:
§ The approach taken by Grant Samuel is to assess Newcrest's interest in Havieron (70%) on an aggregated basis with Newcrest's interest in Telfer (100%). Accordingly, Havieron has not been separately valued. The combined valuation therefore includes significant closure costs and other liabilities associated with Telfer (which Greatland has no exposure to).
§ Grant Samuel has applied its own assumptions and adjustments to arrive at their opinion as to the current combined value of hypothetical Telfer (100%) and Havieron (70%) scenarios.
§ Additionally, because Newcrest did not complete its own planned update to the Havieron Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) in August 2023, the Grant Samuel assessment is based on Newcrest's August 2022 MRE update, which only incorporated drilling results up to November 2021.
As previously announced, the feasibility study for Havieron is ongoing, with value enhancing options being assessed to maximise value and de-risk the project. The feasibility study will therefore be a up-to-date, comprehensive and optimised assessment of Havieron.
Assuming that Newmont's acquisition of Newcrest completes in November 2023 as expected, Greatland looks forward to the opportunity to work constructively with Newmont to optimise the development of Havieron, finalise the feasibility study and progress to a decision to mine.
I'm not having a pop at you CP, just looking at the potential plan GGP might have in mind to extend Telfer LOM from reading the GS Valuation and two scenarios and comments made. If folk look through the team, plenty of operational experience in the team that might aid extending LOM at Telfer if there are still some economically viable areas (not my area of expertise by any means) , especially given the way the Gold price is now trending.
Projects that wouldn't interest a major with 10 x T1 mines already as Shaun says, plenty of proven success in projects shed by majors for 100's of millions being used to propel the growth of smaller companies to mini majors after major industry M&A and the optimisation that is action afterwards and where the laser focus of a smaller mining company can extend LOM of older assets too.
We've had some good feedback from TH where Shaun discussed potential ways to economise by reducing workforce and looking at staggering mining and maintenance teams for instance. Just food for thought and again, look at the team as plenty of experience of Telfer itself or of doing the above at other mines or just general operational knowledge at a world class level. This is where they will begin to earn their worth in spades I imagine if the deal comes through.
https://greatlandgold.com/about-us/team/
Also important to remember that having the likes of Gaines, Barnaba, Wilson and co. greatly increase the ability to attract funding by their very presence, we wouldn't have achieved the existing funding agreements with ANZ, ING, HSBC and Wyloo without them also being present - as Shaun said it was all interdependent. Still, a deal needs to be made and the numbers presented to us to judge individually how accretive we consider them.
Excerpt 2
* Okay Shaun that was a very considerate answer, I wouldn't expect anything less of you of course, a question next question from Mark, what cost savings and efficiencies would Greatland like to implement at Telfer and Jon’s getting involved as well, he asks can you see any additional value which might be extracted, so cost savings and additional value?
- yeah look I think like the way I might answer this question is to go back to my experience at Northern Star and Northern Star acquired Canabel, East Kandana, Plutonic, Jundee from a combination of Barrack and Newmont
- so that sounds familiar and I have direct experience you know around the integration of those assets, the cost efficiency and the revitalization of those assets
- they were well-run assets by global Majors run safely and well but there's a different time in the cycle where a midcap whose laser focused on an asset can just sweat them a little bit harder and can look for those cost savings, use those cost savings to reinvigorate the mine plan
- and that's what we were able to do at Northern Star I think hugely successfully
- Northern Star is now the largest gold company in Australia, it's worth some 10,12,15 billion dollars without looking at the market cap today and built off a number of you know low $100 million transactions so the value creation that uplift the value for shareholders was remarkable
- so this is a well-trodden path in terms of Juniors being able to come in, look at assets and on occasions being able to drive those cost efficiencies and being able to unlock value of mine life because you're willing to go in there and do some of the you know the smaller opportunities to bring out new mine life and open up new parts of the ore body
- and even if the heyday is behind it there's still an opportunity to create value
- so I think I've got… and a number of members of my team have direct experience on that and so you know we're excited about the opportunities that affords
I'm familiar with it and posted here too and think it will be important to negotiations, NEM could push up using asset prices, DFS draft, MRE's considering the outdated data cut-off and look more at scenario 2 whilst a buyer could pull down stating Telfer liabilities, other risks and concerns towards Scenario 1. Some of it did indeed seem nonsensical using an AIM SP to try and assist - mind you the price of something is only ever what one is willing to buy it at fundamentally.
Any thoughts on the 2 different scenarios and final valuation range they concluded? I found the upside at Telfer in Scenario 2 interesting alongside the following excerpts from latest Town Hall Webinar:
https://tinyurl.com/2bhjb3dv
Excerpt 1:
* Okay Shaun which takes us neatly to Telfer, can you take us through the potential purchase of Telfer please Shaun… is Havieron economic without it and how do you deal with the liabilities associated with Telfer?
- yeah well look to some extent I spoke about the choice we have before where I think Havieron can be really attractive either way or although I think the most likely outcome is from a Newmont perspective that they'll if they're looking to tidy up their portfolio that they might think of them as a single asset
- but we don't know the mind of Newmont and I think we can be you know we can see value under either scenario
- but you know when we think about Telfer we also think about a mine in a very different stage of its life cycle to Havieron, like Havieron has all of its best days ahead of it we're excited about a multi- decade future there, by contrast Telfer has been a top five Australian Gold Mine for some 30 of its 35 years but father time captures everyone and including Telfer
- you know it's as we understand it's kind of trending towards the end of its life
- now that's actually very complimentary in many ways with Havieron and the Havieron discovery but you know it is it is a very different thought process and it does come with some rehab liabilities
- would rather those you know liabilities not be there, having said that if that… we think about the net value of the two assets combined
- so without really knowing intimately Telfer if you have a view that Havieron has a positive value but Telfer has a very small value or even a negative value, you're only paying the net value which reflects those liabilities
- so I don't see it as concerning for us, I see it as part of a very thorough due diligence
- I see it making sure you calibrate that value and in some ways it allows you to buy Havieron cheaper than you otherwise would
- so I see it as like all things there's benefits and you know and issues associated but on balance I think it's a very manageable scenario
*CONTD.
Notes from LSE TOWN HALL WEBINAR - 05 Mar 2024
https://tinyurl.com/2bhjb3dv
Link above to download interactive PDF version with slides, I'll add to GGPChat once the site is back up 🙂
Magical Mystical Powers gained from the God of AIm after completing 4 arduous years of hard labour to please them being invested here... or the more boring answer is that another poster in this thread called AmBasteir asked earlier and I was typing in the answer as you posted :-)