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This is the latest episode
https://audioboom.com/posts/8467454-sunday-roast-featuring-rupert-verco-ceo-of-cobra-resources-and-shaun-day-md-of-greatland-gold
It's been posted :-)
https://audioboom.com/posts/8023506-midweek-takeaway-with-shaun-day-ceo-of-greatland-gold-aim-ggp
Still plenty of questions to put forward related to JV and how matters proceed while assets on sale etc. Nemwont seem to be continuing FS and wil they also commence work on decline once aquifer depressurised enough etc. are some examples not related to market sensitive plans I'd have thought...
TBF to Sand who has always been a thoughtful poster, there are 2 parts to this in both the acquisition price and costs required to bring Havieron to development that need to be considered for us or any others. Shaun certainly will be I am sure and we also need to factor into our thoughts.
On the one hand it adds commercial value to the project but on the other also aids funding for prospective buyers with how advanced or near completion it is so an interesting update...
Hopefully also correlates to continued work on the decline once LCA depressurised enough, like everything we shall see how events play out I guess.
Interestingly someone in TG has heard back from Investor Relations in Newmont that they continue work on the FS and also confirmed what Tom had said about a focus on divesting assets in 2024 by end of year and already being in talks with various parties for various assets but wouldn't be free to specify details.
Hey dh, hope you are doing well mate ;-)
Trust me I feel it too mate and I know some folk here are closer to or retired so much less luxury of time. This was deffo not my most desired path but it is the one we have potentially unless outbid.
But in a way mate, at least we are out of limbo and closer to getting on with things albeit plenty of twists and turns to go, has kind of felt like being stuck in a rollercoaster right at the apex of a loop upside down for a long time now...
Let's see where the winds of fate take us now mate, I'd like to think the guy I've spoken too in person has some inkling of interest for us little guys :-)
Grant Samuel valuation of the Hav/telfer assets from Newmont's ownership perspective for the Newcrest acquisition was $500-600m incorporating all decommissioning etc., read page 280 onwards and it goes into detail on everything but the data cut-off is very dated so in reality based on their methodologies the price is higher now.
But who knows how it all works out and read GGP's RNS response too as very insightful too, this is the price range considered last year however accurate it was or not.
https://www.newcrest.com/sites/default/files/2023-09/230908_Scheme%20Booklet%20registered%20by%20ASIC%20-%20Market%20Release_1.pdf
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/GGP/newmont-newcrest-takeover-progress-update-fd54h8l08g4outd.html
He's not just here to visit retail shareholders and a march TH has been commonplace from memory with Shaun last few years, despite this one after such big news.
These are useful for clarity around information shared in RNS format or other Comms and more detail can be obtained on specifics from well thought out questions. Plenty of evidence on this on GGPCHAT where feedback by attendees is given and things such as planned tolling fees, attitude towards joint ventures in future, plans if Havieron had been divested have been clarified as some examples.
And yes if a deal is being put together to buy Telfer and Hav outright then we will at some point see an RNS with details of a planned equity raise, debt funding, ASX listing and IPO etc. so we know what we will be voting for and judge how the numbers play out.
Freddie, some are deffo going to TH and I'm 50/50 on whether I go but if so will also be asking as much as i can to get info. on what he is allowed to talk about certain matters. All we can do really at mo mate, no point in arguing with each other.
Ultimately we now know for certain both assets are being sold, talks are in progress as stated by Tom P in various interviews, there may or may not be 2 other bidders as well if that article is legit speculation - a fair approximation of current situation I feel.
What we all need to see now is an RNS to work out how much needs to be raised, how Shaun intends to do it (Equity raise, debt funding, other methods such as royalties, ASX listing and IPO, Director buys etc. etc. ) if as most of us think we are to be the most likely new owners of both assets. Then we each sit back and work out how that all looks for us from our perspective I guess.
Personally I look at the Grant Samuels valuation (on outdated data TBF ) suggesting a $500-600m range taking into consideration the 'Telfer burden' and 70% of Havieron and wonder if NEM want to offload quickly they don't try pushing up using new data such as latest MRE, whilst any bidder might question the assumptions in the valuation and cite issues such as the tailings dam etc. There are other points such as POG, scenarios and synergies assumed that may differ from GGP perspective too.
Malva had similar thoughts to myself in terms of a valuation range so these alongside the need to fund Havieron into development IMO are all part of the equation here. Very hard to predict how this might be funded though given all the options but no banks or insto will find a cr*p deal fullstop. GGP team knows what kind of funds are needed to close a sale and will be working on finalising things IMO if we aren't being counter bid.
Worst case we get outbid, you know for sure that the new owners plan to mine Hav so they either continue JV or buy us out with Wyloo pushing up the price. If no other bidders, we get a better price.
Then if GGP can't afford both assets then why not do a JV approach with Wyloo as Shaun articulated in a TH webinar when I asked him about alternative arrangements... Shaun's kept telling us he wanted this so let's see what he can cook up and how he looks after us too hopefully, this was always a feasible outcome since the Newmont bid, now we ride the risk and see what fate holds for us :-)
LOL Toby I heard you the first time and thank you for the distinction, yes I was aware of that as been pointed out before and should factor in.
But they seem to be looking to move quickly as per Goldcorp from strategy being displayed - we'll find out soon I guess and of course these kind of divestments take time if talks are not advanced.
Hi UIM, nothing wrong in thinking around all risks and concerns as this is kind of crunch time now for GGP and for us as shareholders, there are instances where majors sell off assets of all types that are picked up by small companies and run more efficiently with less overheads and a singular focus in every industry. You need a damn fine team to do that, funding capability and as always some luck on your side IMO and we seem to have the 2 ingredients in principle that you can have some measure of control on.
The facts we know for definite are that Newmont have put the two assets up for sale and that Greatland holds a right of refusal on Havieron and nothing much has been divulged in terms of specifics of the process, we may not get that level of detail akin to The Option Exercise where we were just given the basic framework.
The 2 assets look primed for a quick transaction though given comments from the NEM earnings calls and progress evidenced already with one deal being confirmed. Unsubstantiated rumours of two other bidders via a press article are as of yet unconfirmed and in all truth as you know, we haven’t yet heard officially from Greatland on what their plans are but they seem pretty obvious to many of us.
I have the thought that if other parties are bidding and GGP are aware it makes sense to see what is being offered to match the highest offer Newmont negotiate, while establishing the ceiling of what you might be able to match any offers at. Otherwise, I assume the team will be working on preparing and/or negotiating the deal they’ve been planning in this eventuality since Newmont bid for Newcrest depending on how advanced talks are.
Newmont Corporation (NEM) Q4 2023 Earnings Call 1
https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=888
IOT - you popping to London on the 5th, let me know and I'll make sure to attend, looking forward to our inaugural Town Hall tea bag lifting competition :-)
'doesnt mean the bod are infallible or smart'......who else could that apply to?
- Definitely you mate, you come across as if you've got the IQ of a lump of rock!
The man who was blindsided by Ncm not taking up the 5% option, after they took up every other at the earliest opportunity?
- You mean the one where GGP's valuation was selected as being closest to FMV despite some rather restrictive metrics and limitations agreed to by the previous leadership team?
- https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=365
The man who put an Rns out, trumpeting the Newmont jv, the day before they announced plans to get rid of it?
- You mean following legal requirements to share material news in Newmont publishing updated Reserve and Resources?
Or maybe as the largest gold miner in the world they know a thing or two about it?
- I'm sure they do and they've decided to sell assets that don't fill their corporate remit in accordance to their own strategical goals and focus as the world's biggest gold mining company, doesn't mean that those operations won't suit smaller entities and we've already seen them close on one divestment.
BIG thank you to Stuart H on twitter for just sending me the text :-)
Newmont confirmed on Friday that it plans to sell Newcrest’s share of the Telfer mine in Western Australia.
The expectation is that the most likely buyers are Regis Resources or Gold Road Resources.
Northern Star Resources and Evolution Mining, which flagged in its results last week that acquisitions were off the agenda for the year, will sidestep the auction.
Macquarie Capital is expected to emerge as the adviser to the sale, which is said to have been worked on since at least August last year.
US-based Newmont launched a buyout of Newcrest Mining last year, paying $29bn for Australia’s largest gold producer.
Telfer produces copper and gold and is the largest processing facility in the Paterson province.
The valuable Havieron deposit, which is 70 per cent owned by Newcrest and 30 per cent by Greatland Gold, is 45km away.
Greatland, which has listing plans through Bank of America, has first right to buy the asset, and many think there is a real possibility it takes up this option.
The question is which buyer is best positioned, with share prices down and the S&P/TSX Global Gold Index off 16 per cent this year. The asset is worth hundred of millions of dollars.
Hi Goldworm, i caught this last night as JC shared on TG but seems quite speculative and also places both companies as more likely buyers than GGP for some reason?
Also competing bidders means a higher price tag for us surely :-)
I can see obvious links in the leadership teams of both firms to previous roles in NEM and NCM inc. one being a former GM at Telfer so perhaps how the author links them unless very sure of negotiations being ongoing, also they see more mid-cap so perhaps less capable than if someone with the firepower of a Rio came in to compete for the assets directly.