Member Info for Dicko80

Tobias-14 Initial Results

The TO-14 well penetrated the entire Binga reservoir section (~80m column) with potential pay zones seen in multiple intervals. TO-14, with a total depth of 781m, was drilled in close proximity to TO-4 as an offset well from the best historic producer in the original Tobias field; a well which produced at its historic peak 12,580 bbls/d despite only penetrating the first 8m of the reservoir.

That is a cracking result 👏

Morning all

Hope you had a lovely Christmas with your loved ones

Now with a Good experienced team in place, here's to a great 2024 👌

Value creation as the project develops on each de risking event

In the ground

Discovery

Flow test

Production

As we are onshore and production is expected to be a quick turnaround c6months , hence why $10 perbbl on flow test as it will quickly be In production potentially $40 per bbl , so 4x flow test succesful valuation

Obviously key is quickly getting into production

Thanks Dream & luke

Rock do you know manners doesn't cost anything ?

Once T14 is completed and both wells T13 & 14 are flow tested , all the data , oil columns , net pay, porosity, flow data, will be used to calculate oil in place and recoverable , so once all is complete we will have a better idea

But as it stands although they've mentioned horizontal drilling there's been limited info , so we are buying in to £9m mkt cap where we are currently priced just on the tobias field at around £0.74 per bbl, as I mentioned in the ground value generallyed viewed at $3 perbbl , so 200% from here just to this level

Discovery $6 per bbl , so 400% to these levels

On confirmed oil flows $10 per bbl , 1000% from here

Then it's about getting into production

As we are onshore costs will be low, likely to be around $35/40 per bbl resulting in $40 / $45 payback per bbl

Horizontal drilling has been mentioned in RNS updates, and this is key to quickly ramping up production accessing more of the reservoir, info and potential productions are limited but 5k bopd netto corcel for year 1 and double this year 2 has been rumoured

5,000 x $40 x 365 = $73m net cash flow

10,000 x $40 x 365 = $146m net cash flow

Mktcap £9m

That's before we look at galinda in the same block as tobias or the salt leads in the same block or the exciting KON 16 where we have 300mmbbls net prospective resources to hunt or Lithium, REM

Valuation

Sale of assets

WWG $2.8m

Mambare $4.1m

Mt weld $1m (partial)

Total $7.9m

c£6.4m

Crcl mkt cap £9m

Angola

REM

Lithium

For £2.6m ?

Add in funding of £10m @ .80p, 50% premium to current sp

Brazil onshore oil and gas assets underreview

Additional Angola onshore and offshore assets under review

Current Angola apraisal drilling

The first two drills are appraisal wells, of which Corcel has net interest of 11.7mmbbls contingent resources

As a current valuation per bbl we are valued at just £0.76 per bbl

Even less if taking out the sale of assets of £6.4m... but let's disregard the cashpile

£9 mkt cap / 11.7mmbbls = £0.76 per bbl

3 different value creation events on an oil discovery

a) in the ground value $3 per bbl

11.7mmbbls x $3 =

$35.1m mkt cap / £28m mkt cap

b) on discovery $6 per bbl

11.7mmbbls x $6 =

$70.2m mkt cap / £56m mktcap

c) on successful flowtest $10 per bbl

11.7mmbbl x $10 =

$117m mkt cap / £93m mkt cap

The current drills a proven oil field , the tobias oil field first well T13 confirmed 120m oil column

current estimate is 65mmbbls of recoverable oil remains ,the current recovery factor used is 31%,so suggest the oil in place is around 200mmbbls but the operator and corcel believe there may be more oilinplace by completing the wells with modern techniques

There has been 12wells drilled historically, the area of closure is mapped and the 4previous wells that failed were outside the closure

Info on the below link

https://www.corcelplc.com/project/onshore-kwanza-basin/

Once T14 completed and as per July presentation, expectation is for horizontal drilling from the vertical wellbore.

Horizontal drilling will access more of the reservoir , we know the reservoir is upto 120m thick but the area of closure has been mapped to 3400 acres , so if Google is correct this is an area of 3709m x 3709m

https://www.propertycalcs.com/area/acres/3400

Please review the following link ,item C , increase the length of payzone

https://geology.com/articles/horizontal-drilling/#b

This will ramp up production, multiple times that of vertical well produces

As per timeframes , first oil is a quick turnaround expected in the next 6 months

Once into production, we will be cash generating !

No more dilution to shareholders

from the current mkt cap £9m there is huge upside to the forecasted aggressive production numbers , the plan looks to quickly drain the reservoir by production from horizontal drilling...

Item B on the below link

https://geology.com/articles/horizontal-drilling/#b

Potentially could ramp production x5x6 times

Forecast for corcel to be producing net 000's bopd

Very cash generative

buying now and holding for a few years ..

multiples in value

Then any other success in Angola especially from KON16 where our share is 300mmbbls net ,although this is exploration there was 12m oil found

Still no stock to buy !!!

Is Mr 60m buyer buying more !?

Any buying volume from here 🚀

Charlemont capital been increasing stake

So nothing to report 🙄 and no idea when 🙄

3% of the shares in issue is 48m (1.6bn)

So the 60m bought on Tuesday is over 3%

So guess we will find out soon enough who's hoovering up lots of shares

Late prints

60m from yesterday at .45p

3m from today paying .53p

Offer .52p

Should be a good end to the week going into the Christmas break

#accumulation

Yes sorry Aussie Jan 24

Yes and very little available online..

just 100k @ 0.52p

FOK for anything larger

Been on the watchlist for some time.... has anyone spoke with the company regarding when the authorities were reviewing the case ?

seems a lifetime ago it was to be rushed through , markes as high importance !

Summer spud then

i looked into the company currently using the rig and its BW Energy, they had an option to extend their contract for the rig beyond Jan 2025 which has been exercised so i would prob agree Summer for Spud

Upcoming TD and subsequent drilling report will be all about the detail and plan moving forward, hoping for a lot meat on the bones than previous TD announcement !

If... they mention horizontal drilling to aggressively ramp up production numbers then 2p will be low..

heres hoping !

Nice 110m buy 👌

Was on the basis of £3m dilution and 10.7bn additional shares taking it to 21.5bn

Actual only 3bn to be issued

So 0.12p target price and Bere used upwards

21.5bn - 12.5bn = 9bn

9bn / 21.5bn = 41.8%

0.12p x 41.8% =

0.17p coreNAV

Upside 0.17 -0.022 = 0.148p

672% confirmation of Farm outs

Then once into production previous sp target. 83p would increase to 1.17p

1.17 - .022 = 1.148p

1.148 / 0.022 =

5118%

Abit of upside from here

Then there's a further 100mmbbls in Cameroon of known potential, plus a much bigger resource potential in the deeper plays, numbers unknown at present

And Namibia we await updated volumetrics , potential 3bn + potential

And SA ... similar mutli billion bbl potential

What an opportunity today

Buy and lock away for 2 years

Indeed

Its not all about Cameroon

But the recent sp angel broker target highlights the discrepancy of mktcap vs Cameroon deal happening

27 / 28 bags

But Namibia is going to be huge ...

Current mkt cap £2.3m

Time to buy or top up

Merry Xmas

You lot need to stop being so pathetic

JA holds over 511m shares bought much much higher

probably cost him a million quid

Of course he's got the best intentions and he needs it to work with such an investment

STRONG BUY