The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Https://energynews.pro/en/angola-oil-production-returns-to-the-kwanza-basin/
Needs a 🚀
If you watch this video from early Sept, looks like production facilities are already in place
Remember to translate into English using CC
https://youtu.be/if8Fm0TWgT4?si=DWCTXE_NFjp0utsq
Mkt cap £14m
Net contingent resources 11.7mmbbls
Priced at just £1.20per bbl
Should be between $3 -6 per bbl,
in the ground $3,
on discovery $6 per bbl
Flowtest $10 perbbl
Production expected Q2 so quick turnaround and value needs to increase significantly
Both wells have multiple zones to test, with each zone a potential producing zone over very large oil columns in both wells 120m & 80m which is highly fractured
It's now becoming clearer the potential production numbers discussed on here many weeks ago become reality
6,000 bopd net to corcel 2024
6,000 x $80 x 365 days =
$175,200,000 gross revenues to corcel
12,000 bopd net to corcel 2025
12,000 x $80x 365 days =
$350,400,000 gross revenues to corcel
Asset sales due covers £6m
REM update also pending
Lithium update pending
BRAZIL Opps under review for sometime
Angola exploration upside 300mmbbls +
Angola tenders submitted for additional licences
So much going on 💥🗯💥🗯💥
I think they'll also re-enter the old producing wells, sidetrack from the vertical wellbores to drill horizontal wells, these to have multiple branches off to intersect the reservoir to create numerous production lines , 2 or 3 per well
to significantly ramp up production from the historic 7 producing wells as well as the 2 new wells just drilled
FDP# 💥💥💥
Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NabwdbFK5mU
Bit of upside to the £2bn valuation
🤣🤣🤣
Obviously we didn't know the drill locations, info shared has been limited but it's such a hugely significant RNS TO14 as this location is top of the crest , where the oil migrates too, so most optimally drilling spot.
"The location of the well is at the top of the field's anticlinal structure, set over the larger of the two compartments that constitute the reservoir."
What they encountered...
"TO-14 drilling encountered high fractured Oolitic Limestones in the reservoir with good porosity values. Initial pressure readings support Corcel's predrill thesis that the reservoir has returned to its original pressure levels through active recharge of the system."
HIGH FRACTURED WITH GOOD POROSITY VALUES...
Very good for high flow rates #gusher
Initial pressure readings similar to original well as they state "returned to original pressure levels"
And we know the original wellflowed at its peak
12,580 bbls/d despite only penetrating the first 8m of the reservoir.
We have potentially 10x to test
But also the original well would have been a vertical well, horizontal wells could increase flow rates significantly which have been mentioned in all RNS
updates plus this last time also the additional of sidetracks
It's time to get excited 💥💥💥
My thoughts are stop spamming the boards
GBP have 1 asset that although offshore Namibia the structures aren't on the migration pathways so unlikely to get a farm out hence the low mkt cap as they have been trying for some time
CRCL on the other hand we expect £200m mkt cap in the near future
Https://www-expansao-co-ao.translate.goog/grande-entrevista/interior/estamos-a-negociar-a-aquisicao-de-mais-blocos-de-petroleo-e-gas-em-angola-115129.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp
Our new leader, interview from Oct
Mkt cap £11m
Net contingent resources 11.7mmbbls
Not even priced at £1 per bbl
Should be between $3 -6 per bbl, in the ground $3, on discovery $6 per bbl
Both wells have multiple zones to test, with each zone a potential producing zone over very large oil columns in both wells 120m & 80m which is highly fractured
It's now becoming clearer the potential production numbers discussed on here many weeks ago become reality
6,000 bopd net to corcel 2024
6,000 x $80 x 365 days =
$175,200,000 gross revenues to corcel
12,000 bopd net to corcel 2025
12,000 x $80x 365 days =
$350,400,000 gross revenues to corcel
Let the 10% have their day, the real money is to come on flow rates, field development plan and production into 2025
Then hunting 300mmbbls in KON16 once in production
Let the testing begin 🔥 🔥
Valuation
Sale of assets
WWG $2.8m
Mambare $4.1m
Mt weld $1m (partial)
Total $7.9m
c£6.4m
Crcl mkt cap £9m
Angola
REM
Lithium
For £2.6m ?
Add in funding of £10m @ .80p, 50% premium to current sp
Brazil onshore oil and gas assets underreview
Additional Angola onshore and offshore assets under review
Current Angola apraisal drilling
The first two drills are appraisal wells, of which Corcel has net interest of 11.7mmbbls contingent resources
As a current valuation per bbl we are valued at just £0.76 per bbl
Even less if taking out the sale of assets of £6.4m... but let's disregard the cashpile
£9 mkt cap / 11.7mmbbls = £0.76 per bbl
3 different value creation events on an oil discovery
a) in the ground value $3 per bbl
11.7mmbbls x $3 =
$35.1m mkt cap / £28m mkt cap
b) on discovery $6 per bbl
11.7mmbbls x $6 =
$70.2m mkt cap / £56m mktcap
c) on successful flowtest $10 per bbl
11.7mmbbl x $10 =
$117m mkt cap / £93m mkt cap
The current drills a proven oil field , the tobias oil field first well T13 confirmed 120m oil column
current estimate is 65mmbbls of recoverable oil remains ,the current recovery factor used is 31%,so suggest the oil in place is around 200mmbbls but the operator and corcel believe there may be more oilinplace by completing the wells with modern techniques
Once T14 completed and as per July presentation, expectation is for horizontal drilling from the vertical wellbore.
Horizontal drilling will access more of the reservoir , we know the reservoir is upto 120m thick but the area of closure has been mapped to 3400 acres , so if Google is correct this is an area of 3709m x 3709m
hTTps://www.propertycalcs.com/area/acres/3400
Please review the following link ,item C , increase the length of payzone
https://geology.com/articles/horizontal-drilling/#b
This will ramp up production, multiple times that of vertical well produces
As per timeframes , first oil is a quick turnaround expected in the next 6 months
Once into production, we will be cash generating !
No more dilution to shareholders
from the current mkt cap £9m there is huge upside to the forecasted aggressive production numbers , the plan looks to quickly drain the reservoir by production from horizontal drilling...
Item B on the below link
https://geology.com/articles/horizontal-drilling/#b
Potentially could ramp production x5x6 times
Forecast for corcel to be producing net 000's bopd
Very cash generative
buying now and holding for a few years ..
multiples in value
Then any other success in Angola especially from KON16 where our share is 300mmbbls net ,although this is exploration there was 12m oil found in previous well, so not your wildcat licence area
Lots of upside from current £9m mkt cap
Corcel's estimated unproduced prospective oil resources are 65 MMbls with 11.7 MMbls net to CRCL. The field will qualify for marginal field fiscal terms, as outlined by the Angolan government, resulting in advantageous royalty, tax and depreciation regimes.
About KON-11 and the Kwanza Basin
As previously announced, KON-11 is considered a brownfield development and includes the historically producing Tobias field, drilled, and developed by Petrofina in the 1960s and 1970s, and inactive since the late 1990s. The Tobias field constituted 12 historic vertical wells, and Corcel and the operator believe that a revised interpretation of the existing structures along with the application of modern drilling and completion technology, including potentially adding sidetracks or horizontal drilling to the Field Development Plan ("FDP") will lead to a higher Original Oil in Place ("OOIP") figure recognized in the reactivated field and subsequently more producible field resource potential
The TO-14 well found no presence of water during drilling, despite the fact that the offset TO-4 well had been reported to have watered out by the end of its production life, further indicating that the field has fully re-equilibrated.
Tobias-14 Initial Results
The TO-14 well penetrated the entire Binga reservoir section (~80m column) with potential pay zones seen in multiple intervals. TO-14, with a total depth of 781m, was drilled in close proximity to TO-4 as an offset well from the best historic producer in the original Tobias field; a well which produced at its historic peak 12,580 bbls/d despite only penetrating the first 8m of the reservoir.
That is a cracking result 👏
Value creation as the project develops on each de risking event
In the ground
Discovery
Flow test
Production
As we are onshore and production is expected to be a quick turnaround c6months , hence why $10 perbbl on flow test as it will quickly be In production potentially $40 per bbl , so 4x flow test succesful valuation
Obviously key is quickly getting into production
Thanks Dream & luke
Rock do you know manners doesn't cost anything ?
Once T14 is completed and both wells T13 & 14 are flow tested , all the data , oil columns , net pay, porosity, flow data, will be used to calculate oil in place and recoverable , so once all is complete we will have a better idea
But as it stands although they've mentioned horizontal drilling there's been limited info , so we are buying in to £9m mkt cap where we are currently priced just on the tobias field at around £0.74 per bbl, as I mentioned in the ground value generallyed viewed at $3 perbbl , so 200% from here just to this level
Discovery $6 per bbl , so 400% to these levels
On confirmed oil flows $10 per bbl , 1000% from here
Then it's about getting into production
As we are onshore costs will be low, likely to be around $35/40 per bbl resulting in $40 / $45 payback per bbl
Horizontal drilling has been mentioned in RNS updates, and this is key to quickly ramping up production accessing more of the reservoir, info and potential productions are limited but 5k bopd netto corcel for year 1 and double this year 2 has been rumoured
5,000 x $40 x 365 = $73m net cash flow
10,000 x $40 x 365 = $146m net cash flow
Mktcap £9m
That's before we look at galinda in the same block as tobias or the salt leads in the same block or the exciting KON 16 where we have 300mmbbls net prospective resources to hunt or Lithium, REM