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I was previoulsy invested here along with Kels
unfortunately he is right
er its not gradual
I am getting a bit twitchy too but on other hand a bunch of ii's paid £2 not so very long ago
I basically concur with your post
one thing I noted was the difficulty in buying when it was on the up & up
Hi SGD
the diff between their 8 & my 10 could arise from a combination of unknown assumption/calculation differences so it's not possible to say however the numbers are close enough for me to be satisfied am in the same ballpark
You are right to pick up the 20% as extremely conservative
Banks have depts working to figure out correct discount factors for NPV calculations however the basic principle is the bigger the risk the higher the discount rate and theory of DCF is to apply an equity risk premium to the risk-free rate which traditionally has been the rate on a 10 year govt bond (although the financial crisis and the invention of negative interest rates has made this even more subjective)
IMO this enterprise is essentially de-risked and something like 10% would be appropriate and probably still conservative
Your attitude is correct, you rarely get complaints about over delivery!
Just to say I have been in this for 2 years and I liked it because it is essentially low risk as low tech and low capex
The only real risk was permission and placings while in development
now the quality of the market will determine valuation
Just picking up on this thread from last week about the 8m valuation
That valuation is out of date and was a "risk adjusted" valuation which conflates DCF valuation with a probability of it happening or not, the 70% bit, SGD picked this up
IMO this is really pretty meaningless for a single stock more useful for estimating the potential value of a portfolio of investments
Looks like they used a 20% discount for the time value of money and then applied the probability
Plugging their stated assumptions into a simple financial model structured as above I came to a value of £10m vs their £8m, so reasonably close
Using their number of 8 and removing the probability NPV is £8m/.30 = 27m and 27/2736m* shares = 1.0p
If I change just 2 assumptions, life of mine from 15 years to 27 and no of shares to 3314 my model shows 1.6p
obvs all assumptions should be updated, Capex and its funding would be a big factor for instance
please regard this as no more than an attempt to sense check an external valuation and all usual caveats apply
I used to be in here for the oil in Azer, just checking out the RNS
100 million to 2 billion ?
I know thats a guestimate but take heed
very volatile last few mins
Buy AND sell 230!
Mystic Meg is right in that its binary but I question why he has got nothing better to do this afternoon other than come on here and say you are all going to loose your money
I have been invested here before but fortunately got out with a small loss
lately been lurking & contemplating a re entry but cautious in expectation of a placing
didn’t expect it to come so soon
This share is basically a punt, IMO only invest what you can afford to lose
you will also need to be patient, as commented already, winter is not far off
I have some experience with public consultations in the renewable energy area
This is out in the desert so no people in proximity , relatively low environmental impact , a desirable green product , creating local employment and revenue for authorities.
Whats not to like