Member Info for Dfens

Twiggy, thats fair comment, thanks for chasing PC

I too am a little frustrated as money tied up here while there are other good stocks out there (which may be why some people are selling), however I have a financial model which tells me 2p is not an unreasonable value for an operational business and my opinion that this is about as low risk as you get on AIM
I am sure discussions about offtakes or even a sale of the business are ingoing and so NDAs may be preventing communication
So for me I am sticking with it

Both exactly 135

I disagree that this is about luck as PC, slow though he may have been, has, subject to final AQ clearance, delivered a good to go viable business
“Luck Is What Happens When Preparation Meets Opportunity"
So I reckon this share is about as fundamentally risk free as it's possible to be, not capex heavy or complex to deliver so valuation is hopefully, shortly, about one thing
Size and value of the market
Welcome Fresh, I was about to ask about sales value too but SGD beat me to it!

you timed that perfectly, I was lurking at 21.9 but missed it

I was previoulsy invested here along with Kels
unfortunately he is right

er its not gradual

and as if by magic, RNS

I am getting a bit twitchy too but on other hand a bunch of ii's paid £2 not so very long ago

a placing was inevitable to get ball rolling, once contracts signed and operations started will be easier to obtain non dilutive funding

I basically concur with your post
one thing I noted was the difficulty in buying when it was on the up & up

bit of a political risk with ERIS?
could be nationlaised by Krankie?

agreed, but not too late to buy in

Hi SGD
the diff between their 8 & my 10 could arise from a combination of unknown assumption/calculation differences so it's not possible to say however the numbers are close enough for me to be satisfied am in the same ballpark
You are right to pick up the 20% as extremely conservative
Banks have depts working to figure out correct discount factors for NPV calculations however the basic principle is the bigger the risk the higher the discount rate and theory of DCF is to apply an equity risk premium to the risk-free rate which traditionally has been the rate on a 10 year govt bond (although the financial crisis and the invention of negative interest rates has made this even more subjective)
IMO this enterprise is essentially de-risked and something like 10% would be appropriate and probably still conservative
Your attitude is correct, you rarely get complaints about over delivery!
Just to say I have been in this for 2 years and I liked it because it is essentially low risk as low tech and low capex
The only real risk was permission and placings while in development
now the quality of the market will determine valuation

Just picking up on this thread from last week about the 8m valuation
That valuation is out of date and was a "risk adjusted" valuation which conflates DCF valuation with a probability of it happening or not, the 70% bit, SGD picked this up
IMO this is really pretty meaningless for a single stock more useful for estimating the potential value of a portfolio of investments
Looks like they used a 20% discount for the time value of money and then applied the probability
Plugging their stated assumptions into a simple financial model structured as above I came to a value of £10m vs their £8m, so reasonably close
Using their number of 8 and removing the probability NPV is £8m/.30 = 27m and 27/2736m* shares = 1.0p
If I change just 2 assumptions, life of mine from 15 years to 27 and no of shares to 3314 my model shows 1.6p
obvs all assumptions should be updated, Capex and its funding would be a big factor for instance
please regard this as no more than an attempt to sense check an external valuation and all usual caveats apply

never get tired of watching that, thanks

I used to be in here for the oil in Azer, just checking out the RNS
100 million to 2 billion ?
I know thats a guestimate but take heed

very volatile last few mins

Buy AND sell 230!

Indeed
news flow will become more frequent and interesting