RE: The oil will find its way.20 Aug 2023 22:00
Given A and B are inextricably tied (ie they can be summed together) you can even estimate the probability the market places currently on a good (things are resolved before 4Q) versus bad outcome (worth only current cash). Perhaps unsurprisingly, that probability currently works out to be about 50:50.
To say "we're in shape for the long haul" beggars belief in the face of current circumstances. On the contrary, everything is at risk. I'm long and I hope I'm not wrong. Place your bets, but it could go either way.
You are sitting on a 50/50 that could go either way. Something just doesn’t add up with you.