BEM Preproduction Valuation26 Mar 2012 11:45
This is a theoretical enterprise valuation using an explorer/miner to highlight that Beowulf Mining are undervalued on the stock market.
Drawing a comparison with Northland Resources a valuation can be developed.
EV = £430m
Iron ore:
Near production = 176Mt (no discount to EV)
Measured and Indicated = 193.3Mt (32% discount to EV)
Inferred = 144.8Mt (70% discount to EV)
From this it can be concluded a production tonne in the ground is around £1.20/t. A Measured or Indicated tonne is 83.3p/t and an Inferred tonne is 36.8p/t. A further discount is applied to non-JORC assets of 90% giving 12.3p/t
From this it is possible to value Beowulf on the stock market and highlight its true value.
Inferred = 131.6Mt + 140Mt = 271.6Mt which is £100m
Non-JORC = 230Mt up to 468Mt = £28.3m to £57.6m
Giving a total value now of £128.3m to £157.6m
With the whole deposit JORC'ed to Inferred this becomes 600Mt + 140Mt = 740Mt which is £272.3m
Measured and Indicated will further add to this and take a 600Mt deposit to £500m with a 140Mt Inferred at Ruoutevare on top giving a total of £551.5m
This does not represent the premium paid for by a buyer. Currently an Inferred tonne will typically sell for £0.50/t at 36% premium, implying that a Measured or Indicated would sell for £1.13/t in the case of a buyout of the resource.
With an Inferred the iron assets will sell for around £370m and with Measured around £750m.
This gives a dividend after corporate tax and Beowulf keeping 20% of the sale:
Inferred JORC Kallak and Ruoutevare = £1.18/share
Measured JORC Kallak and Inferred Ruoutevare = £2.40/share