Good luck to all...6 Feb 2015 20:54
Well this day next week we should know a little more as to the direction of FTO......If you are unsure...then selling in to the market may be the best decision...If you are holding then vote, one way or another....
If the board get the 75% they need, then we will get our 10p cash and move on. The cvr, in my view, looks highly unlikely (Page 15 note 4....."the Independent Fortune Oil Directors believe that a sale of some or all of the China Gas Holdings shares is unlikely.") So the offer is 10p cash in my view.
If they don't get the 75% needed, then we are in a different game and who knows where the sp will go.....so if you are nervous of this out come...then sell...The way in which the offer document is presented, allows for an offer only without the scheme, if the consortium so wish....but weather they will or not, is a gamble that may not be to many investor's liking...
I remember a few years back when Sinopec/ENN made their opportunistic HK$3.50 a share bid for CGH and refused to increase their bid in the face of a group of investors holding out against their terms......They lost face as well as the bid target by not increasing the bid......and what happened to the sp of CGH after the failed attempted bid?
They are currently sitting at HK$12.50 per share after a near 25% correction since late November 2014!!!
So nobody really knows what may happen to the sp next week in the event of the scheme failing... Simon Thompson has an article in this week's IC.......'..... However, the minimum cash offer of 10p would be a bargain buy for the acquirer and having a close look at the offer document I feel that an outright cash bid of 15p a share is more reasonable, given that Fortune's NAV is closer to 20p a share if the stake in China Gas is marked to market value. Sit tight.'
Good luck to all.....