Sonora31 Aug 2023 10:40
This not “new” news that the Sonoran lithium licences could be in
danger of expropriation. The matter has now been brought to a head and we
expect a binary decision from the administrative review. We already gave the
value of the Mexican assets a high-risk rating in our fair value (report 02.02.2023),
understanding the potential difficulties in country, giving them a 7.8p/sh value in
our SOTP fair value out a total fair value of 71p. In that respect today’s news does
not change our view significantly as we see the bulk of value in the Amapa iron
ore project in Brazil. However, if the Mexican government does not cancel the
licences, we would reduce our risk rating considerably from the 20% of NAV we
include now meaning that the licences, in our view, would hold significant value
to Cadence. This process is necessary, in our opinion, to remove the cloud
hanging over the licences and could, given a favourable review, provide a value
uplift for Cadence.