Review31 Jul 2020 10:03
It’s amusing to see the usual faces deramp, probably more today as results haven’t quite gone their way. The FTSE as a whole is down this morning, including all travel and tourism stocks for a start. However, analysis below and I feel IAG are in a great position going forward, a lot better than expected.
- £8.1b in the bank (far from the £4b prediction by whatamess yesterday, laughable yet again)
- Q2 loses of £1.3b (Better than my prediction of circa £1.6b yesterday)
- £2.75b RI, price to be confirmed (gets the media and the unions off their back IF it actually happens by the time they restructure their staff in the August deadline, this brining their cash reserve back to £10.3b) (pre pandemic levels)
I would also note a deflection of the update
“Based on our current capacity planning scenario, we would reach breakeven in terms of Net cash flows from operating activities during quarter 4 2020.”
This statement alone tells you that IAG are very strong, they will recover their losses within the current year, their handling of covid has been exceptional considering the financial impact its had and that going forward the only way they can go is upwards unless travel shuts down forever, which I highly doubt.
We expected a loss today so nothing has changed. Everything we knew prior to the release has been confirmed. The price is moving down because of the market sentiment, the traders making a few quid and the panic sellers not to mention we are still in full scale COVID with travel shut down.
IAG don’t always do sunny destinations therefore assuming the US reopens, we still have 5 months of transatlantic travel of this calendar year, not to mention the US, the UK, Russia and France all having a proven vaccine in its final stages.
The only way for this company is upwards and I stand by what I’ve said, you check this back in a year or two, you’ll find these prices are long gone.
Sit tight, soak up the negativity and SP volatility, your patience will be rewarded.