Member Info for Deadgrateful

What the group should look like when captures a slice of the ~£500m/month UK GLP-1 market. Built off their disclosed unit economics...

> Pharmacy (NHS) — 500k items/mo @ £9.70, 34% margin

- Revenue ~£58.2m | Gross profit ~£19.8m

> Clinic (private GLP-1) — 15,000 patients @ £180/mo

- Revenue ~£32.4m | Contribution ~£15.3m

(after ~£17m drug cost paid to Lilly/Novo — stripped out, that's not profit)

> Diagnostics (blood tests) — scaled, ~55% margin

- Revenue ~£5.0m | Gross profit ~£2.75m

> App / Epassi / B2B — optionality, not baked in

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

TOTAL: ~£95.6m revenue | ~£37.9m gross/contribution

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

Against a £20–28m cost base at that scale = roughly £10–18m operating profit

Increase the GLP-1 figures to something meaningful and you can start to see the potential here...

The pharmacy ramp is the engine, but it's the optionality stacked on top that's mispriced. What I'm watching over the coming weeks:

Oral GLP-1 UK launch (expected current year). Injectables put a lot of people off and an oral version widens the funnel hard. MedPal's one of the few with direct supply from both Lilly and Novo, so they can actually fulfil it end-to-end rather than refer out.

Diagnostics rollout. Started with the weight-loss blood test; men's health, women's hormonal and wellness panels flagged through 2026. Each launch is a mini-catalyst, and blood tests carry fatmargins.

First confirmed breakeven month / combined run-rate print. That's the de-risking moment, the RNS that says Runcorn's relit.

Care-home channel. The Care UK contract (200+ homes) is the boring, sticky, recurring base sitting under the flashy GLP-1 story. New wins on that template add stable volume nobody's really looking at.

Stop cross ramping Sbds you div.

Raised their fair value to 9p per share.

We have an expectation that once in production extensions to the orebody(s) can be found (e.g. Dokwe NE extension) and that Dokwe Central will grow bigger and may even become an underground mine once the open pit is exhausted. We will know more of the exciting exploration potential as Ariana goes through its drilling and exploration over the next 6 months or so. Suffice it to say there is enough properly categorised mineralisation, in our view, to justify the mine – as the PFS numbers show. It is also our experience of the geology of Zimbabwean mines that the starting reserve is very much the minimum; we expect mine life extensions in what is a new gold district in our view.

From the new note:

Ariana has delivered a truly impressive PFS update for the 100%-owned Dokwe project, with a 42% increase in Ore Reserves to 1.13Moz and a pre-tax NPV10 of $1,056m underpinning what looks like an outstanding scalable, long-life, high-margin gold project. The decision to increase throughput to 2.5Mtpa, informed by strategic optimisation work, has materially enhanced project economics, driving peak production of 100koz/yr and total life-ofproject output of 1.1Moz gold. We expect through the DFS and FEED process that cost savings will be found. With an already competitive AISC of $1,995/oz, a low pre-production capex of just $164M, and Ariana holding $38m in cash and assets with zero debt, the pathway to development looks well-defined and will be increasingly de-risked. Ongoing drilling will form the next catalyst with a major update in Q1 2027 with the DFS. On current evidence Dokwe is shaping up as one of the more compelling development-stage gold projects in Africa.

Agreed, but these are often the best shares to be sat in. All indicators are positive, we have a huge stockpile of cash (well over half our mc), a resource that seemingly expands on each set of results and a funding partner that doesn’t mess around. Market might be missing it a present, but it’ll wake up to the facts soon enough and there won’t be any hot money in. Gold could quite easily roof again before the year’s out, which strengthens our already rock solid foundation.

Will be a portfolio maker this thing.

Nice little pre-market buy there. Presumably the news will be released Wednesday for both us and the Aussies. Which leaves UK buyers with a rather tasty opportunity today 👀

Let’s see. The trading halt specifically mentioned an RNS relating to the completion of a revised PFS study

Solid RNS that. 6m to be received this year… flying well under the radar

Just a note to forum members that the filter option (to be used for trolls like guidfarr who's post history is rather telling) is surprisingly effective ;)

Excerpt below:

Ariana today announces the sale of a 13.6% stake in its Zenit partnership to the majority shareholder Özaltin Holding. Zenit operates two mines in Turkey: Kiziltepe and Tavşa set to produce c.30koz gold at full production. The sale represents gross cash of $19.5m (net $17.2m after estimated local taxes) and will leave Ariana with a 9.9% interest in Zenit and a board representative. This reinforces our view that Ariana is a development company and is looking to fast track its Dokwe gold mine project in Zimbabwe – which Zeus view as a company maker. Post sale Ariana has £29m ($39.1m) in cash (and cash value of its remaining investment in Zenit) which we expect to get Ariana to the completion of the Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) – which is well underway. Ariana will still be entitled to dividends from Zenit out of the profits from the production of gold (and silver), but we stress, this sale is good business, and a well-timed partial exit, bringing forward cashflow and giving Ariana a cash pile with which to advance Dokwe. We see a fair value at 7.9p per share and view the focus on Dokwe as a strength.

Zeus increase its valuation (Exhibit 1) very slightly from 7.8p/sh to 7.9p/sh on reduced risk but note that the sale leaves Ariana with non-dilutive funding for a significant advancement of Dokwe. We also point out that a gold price of $3,000/oz is used in our DCF valuation of Dokwe and only shows production of up to 76koz gold per year – if Dokwe can be brought in quickly it will obviously benefit from a higher gold price (in our view) and we expect, following recent RNS’ from Ariana, that Dokwe could be c.100koz gold per year. The 100% owned Dokwe project will have a big impact on our valuation going forward. We expect news soon.

Poor reaction today has nothing to do with Ariana and is more a reflection of the sorry state of the UK markets in general (despite what a couple of stale ex holders living in imagination land will tell you).

Value will prevail here, and sooner than many might think. It’s all about Dowke and today’s deal tells you that management agrees.

No debt, 💸 plenty of cash and a potential reserve increase that would make EDV blush.

Don’t look a gift horse in the mouth. This is the start of major news flow.

Account created 2 days ago and a couple of random de-ramps. Not remotely dodgy lol

No, they sold a little over half of their interest, and for a very tidy sum (especially when you consider the current MC). Dowke is the real prize and this completely de-risks it. Will be 200m mc plus this time next year, if not substantially more.

From the note today…

“If Dokwe can be brought in quickly it will obviously benefit from a higher gold price (in our view) and we expect, following recent RNS’ from Ariana, that Dokwe could be c.100koz gold per year. The 100% owned Dokwe project will have a big impact on our valuation going forward. We expect news soon.”

Excellent news, and now an even easier hold for that resource update (which should be quite something) in the coming weeks.

Cleardusk definitely adding here imo. Still very cheap all things considered

*Substantial* not Su Stanton (I’ve no idea who she is 😂)

Looks like that resource update will be Su Stanton when it comes. 7.8p fair value (not taking the upgrade into consideration) according to today’s new broker note. It’s going to be well worth the wait 👌

Something brewing here 🤔