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You have hit the nail on the head Nondeplume - the Saudi's now have all the cards in their hands. Let us in on future aircraft or we might go elsewhere. A situation which may never have arisen if the Germans had not banned the sale of parts to build new aircraft. So we wait for the Typhoon order but if the Rafaele also get's in that is still a blow to BAe who considered Saudi as a home market.
The Germans have apparently dropped their opposition of arms sales to Saudi. The deal for 48 Typhoons will now surely be soon although the Saudi's may also buy Rafaele.
As for Tempest, and even Typhoon, the Saudi's will demand a bigger role as under their 2030 Vision plan 50% of defense expediture will be in Saudi. BAe will have to transfer more work to Saudi in exchange for aircraft sales.
Yes a deeply painful thought and a real kicker to BAe if the French get their toes into what is a major market. It would be a shock!
The Saudi's also have a skipload of aircraft that need replacing in the near future.
So far MBS has delayed his trip to the UK so nothing on the cards. Keep reading the papers - if Macron flies out to Saudi in the New Year maybe your fears will finally be realised !
But maybe, the Saudi's will be let into the Tempest program, the German Greens relent and more Typhoon parts are made or repared in Saudi to seal the deal.
For now all the cards are in the Saudi's hands!
If Saudi choose Rafaele over Typhoon then a loss to Rolls Royce :
They still make Typhoon engines
They repair Tornado engines which the Saudi's would have replaced with Typhoons.
The German ban is a big issue for BAe but will affect RR if Saudi's opt for French aircraft
If you are up into 6 figures and retiring in 3 years you should sell.
Being 100% invested in any 1 share is way to risky - take your gain ! Rolls Royce has done well for you up until now.
It just takes a dodgy engine blade issue grounding aircraft, SMR being a pipe dream, RR builds them at the size of a rice cooker for subs so lets not get too excited about covering the UK greenbelt with larger versions just yet. Sell!
AAL - Anglo American
BAe - but I hold for share growth eg Typhoon sale & will sell down
Rolls Royce - no dividend but share price growth. Will sell down once I hit my target
MKS - yes after 4 years Marks & Sparks now paying a 1p dividend ! But share price growth for me and sell out.
After that lot I hold ETF's. So not really a dividend seeker .
23 pence or something. If I read your post correctly then you have £1m in shares. A bit risky for a £23,000.00 dividend?
Long term Tempest may flop, short term Saudi's might buy Rafael and a possibility of a share price drop after Ukraine war bought to a negotiated settlement and the Americans equip the Ukraine airforce with F16's.
But I hope not ! :)
No. The German manufacturer or ( OEM ) hold all the 'rights' etc. And....
If you redisign from scratch then has to pass all safety checks etc
And building just '48' black boxes is too small an order for a new manufacturer to take on due to costs.
So, back to German approval or no sale!
Apart from reports :
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/saudi-arabia-requests-quote-french-fighter-jets-la-tribune-2023-10-21/
The Saudi's still fly Tornado. It's finished in 2030. They need aircraft so if the Germans refuse to budge then the French will move in.
A bigger drop will come if there is any truth in the Saudi's exploring buying Rafale.
German export ban still it seems prevents the 48 Typhoon order and the Saudi's need to replace a lot of aircraft. Nervous times!
I'm sure they know the answer already after all Sholze visited Saudi a year ago. More recently the Saudi defense minister visited BAe back in December.
And why would MBS visit the UK if there are no deals to be signed, no point in him subjecting himself to the usual anti Saudi demonstrations for just a hand shake and a bit of investment elsewhere.
So, I shall hold. Been waiting for this order for sometime. If it doesn't happen now that's pretty bleak news for BAe in Saudi.
MBS visiting UK in the autumn
The FT today have a story on the Saudi Crown Prince coming to the UK in the Autumn.
The Saudi's have a massive ageing aircraft fleet which needs replacing and in the case of Typhoon upgrading. Surely this will be the time for that long talked about and delayed 48 Typhoon order from Saudi to materialize.
Yes drones will be the future and ultimately a pilotless aircraft and I'm sure aircraft manufacturers as you say are into looking that.
But today you need aircraft to deliver heavy weapon loads such as Paveway & Storm Shadow and will do for many years to come.