Member Info for Davius

Well, with another 12% off the SP so far today you'll be picking up a sub 20p bargain before Christmas. I don't doubt the aims of the company, the worth of its market or the impact of government influence. I'm voicing doubts over it's huge debt in relation to valuation, and the therefore real risk that this company might fail. Although I think this is highly unlikely as an operation, more serious would be the need to sell the company to pay off the debt. Someone could buy out the company for say £50m debt repayment and take on £10m of debt, leaving the shareholders with practically nothing. See Eurotunnel and British Energy for examples (I had shares in the latter, was left with a pittance when they sold out).

That means yet another fund raising, diluting shareholder value once again. As they expect to tap the market for another £10m in April, I wouldn't be surprised to see further falls in the share price. The interims, although showing increased sales, still revealed a 6 month loss of £8.8m and the company is effectively £61m in debt (Liabilities of £99m less equity - including assets - of £38m) which is £10m worse than in March. The following statement in the interims signifies the companies future dependance on government intervention in the fuels market to ensure they get the sales needed to keep them afloat: ------------------------------------------------ The importance of mandation to the biofuels industry cannot be overstated. It will underpin demand for biodiesel, especially in two of the largest European markets. It is a pity therefore that we have to wait a further 16 months before mandation arrives in the UK. Nevertheless, we will be looking to work where possible with major UK fuel suppliers to put in place supply chains to meet these obligations well in advance of April 2008. ------------------------------------------------ Assuming they do survive (and I suspect this is highly likely) it looks to me that the SP will continue to perform poorly for several months to come. No doubt at some point the shares will be considered cheap, but even at a cap of £13m I would not invest at present.

211p in May, 29p today. Even from last Thursdays comment of SP back up to 42p this is a crash, 30% down in two trading days. Assuming they don't go bust then I would agree that the potential is significant, but the SP performance suggests a lack of investor belief and I'd want to see some recovery before buying into these shares.

Smaller trades means that the market makers are less likely to widen the spread, as they invariably do on large trades. Not likely to be higher broker fees as these were nearly all automatic executions and besides, trade often enough and you can get very low fees in any case. SP weakening all day until the close when it rebounded.

It looks like someone is quietly building up a modest interest, several 10000 buys in thin trading on MOB this morning. I would not be surprise to learn that these are from the same buyer, probably a speculation on the prospect of the ZED bid. Could also be linked to the Post Advisory Group Notification of a 6.929% (4.2m shares) stake released this morning. Little movement in SP though, market still waiting for ZED to put us out of our misery either way...

LONDON (AFX) - British drug developer Skyepharma PLC said US regulators have approved asthma treatment Foradil Certihaler, co-developed with Novartis AG. The product was recalled in Germany and Switzerland early this year on concern the inhaler was delivering variable doses of the drug. SkyePharma has since been modifying the device and resubmitted it with US watchdog the Food and Drug Administration. The UK company will earn a royalty on sales of the product, and is waiting to find out the Swiss pharma giant's plans for its commercial launch. ------------------------------------------------ I feel more confidant that SKP has started to turn the corner. No doubt it will be a long haul to significant profitability, but if they can shift the injectibles unit we should see some decent revenue over the next 12 months and perhaps a 50% rise in shareholder value. It still won't take us back to the highs of a year ago but I think there's finally money to be made on SKP.

Huge gas find, intra day peak of 160p then slides all the way back down to just above pre find SP. Then went up on rumours of a tie in with China Oil and Gas, subsequently scotched by an RNS from FEP. SP has remained up a tad from its lows though, and the word is that they'll be an update next week. Undoubtedly all hangs on an eventual joint venture to recover this vast quantity of gas, FEP is a tiddler in comparison to the big boys. As soon as some progress is announced towards actually getting hold of and selling the gas, these will show a significant rise. Of course, they also have other irons in the fire, another decent find from one of their other explorations and shareholders will be looking at further return on investment. The confusing thing is why the shares are so low given the vast amount of gas found. If this were VOG or EME we'd have a doubled SP and then some. Can only assume that profit takers and market makers have done the business on this company.

My average on FEP is 96p. They topped at just over a pound, but only until the RNS came out denying the tie up with China. With the huge find of gas it's only a matter of time that they announce a joint venture with one of the big boys, and then the shares will fly. My guess it will be Shell, given their serious problems with Russia, I'm sure they'll be keen to have access to such a large find. Apologies for posting this here, should be on FEP, but responding to the comment. Re MOB, anyone's guess where it might be in a fortnight. Breakeven is 57p so tempted to ditch the cheaper ones (avout 50%) at a profit now and perhaps breaking even on the rest if ZED does mount a bid. In a perfect world they hit 53p tomorrow, I sell my oldest and newest at breakeven leaving me with just over half at 60p...

Mine are a quivering on a daily basis. We've had a couple of attempts to sustain a rise into the 50s followed by a drop off, this week down to 40p. I did manage to get a sell order at 50.3p on the system for my entire holding, but wimped out when about to click on 'Place Order'. Probably should have gone ahead with it as the SP has dropped back since. Did you get back into anything? PRTY? If I do get shot of MOB short term I'll be topping up on FEP, been reading some interesting comments re likely news releases coming up in the next week or so.

Glue said his broker suggested a shakeout and that looks to have been correct. I just tried dealing but to no avail, at least auto anyway. Might be back to matched bargains or at least MMs keeping a firm grip on buys and sells. The price is jumping around quite rapidly between 49.5p and 50.5p (mid) at present. I just put in a prospective buy order and it came in 0.57p above the quote price. There seem to have been a lot of buys today, I think speculators are jumping back on the bid bandwagon.

My gut feeling is to avoid like the plague! It's very easy to get caught up in the euphoria of a rising share price. In some circumstances it can still pay off though, eg a good RNS on an oil stock for example. However, in the case of SOLA we've already had the 'good' RNS (November) but still have no income and profits are a long time away. To my view we have a 'China based SEO' in SOLA, huge potential but no income and an aweful lot of hype. With SEO we have a £32m cap and arguably rather more visibility (being UK based) than with SOLA, and it's staggering £429m cap. My gut feeling suggests that they'll use their high valuation to raise more funds for the expansion plans, if this happens we'll probably be looking at an SP crash. Incidentally, EK stated he shorted at 470p, so is already doing nicely on that one. My broker won't let me take a short position, but I'm an investor that takes the occassional punt, rathern than an all out gambler, so not a problem for me.

EK advocates shorting on SOLA, here are his reasons: ------------------------------------------------ Renesola stands out. Firstly, its shares have raced ahead in recent weeks for no apparent reason. Secondly the stock has been pumped by Bulletin Board morons in a way which I have not seen since the peak of 3dimmery. Such lunacy must presage a fall. Thirdly the rating is a joke. Even back at 422p this company is valued at 422 million pounds yet its last quarterly net income was less than 4 million pounds (on a miniscule tax charge). Its net assets are not much over 20 million pounds and it is consistently cashflow negative yet was down to net cash of just over 3 million pounds at the last period end. I am not convinced that its production methods provide a sustainable platform for long term stellar growth and everything convinces me that this is a cracking short. ------------------------------------------------ I've been viewing this share for a couple of weeks and almost piled in, but the SP is surprisingly volatile and it has run ahead spectacularly. I like to think that I'm not particularly affected by any individual comments but as I'd already expressed concerns that it might have gone a bit high I'll stay out of this one for the time being.

The trouble with RTO is it's a bit of a dog. The only thing keeping the SP above 150p is persistant talk of a bid. I owned these for quite a time and they did very little. Personally I'd be surprised if there was enough profit in such a business to attract much interest. Even if it happens there's unlikely to be a counter bidder. Don't chase them too high.

The release this morning seems innocuous enough, Teather and Greenwood reporting a fairly small transaction in shares. However I noticed at the bottom of the release something which made me take note. Read into it what you will... Date of disclosure 13 DECEMBER 2006 Contact name COLIN WOODS Telephone number 020 7426 7714 Name of offeree/offeror LA NETRO ZED SA with which connected Nature of connection ACTING FOR OFFEROR

PRTY looks a reasonable move at present, I think it has less down side than MOB, definite support around 26-27p and regularly takes a peep above 30p so not hard to make a quick profit. Was that your 70 odd thousand buy just before 9am? Already showing profit as the shares are up if so. MOB static at 44p this morning. At least with much less volatility it should be easy to trade.

I posted a sell opinion on the expectation of having got shot of them, but when I tried to sell and was being offered way under the offer price I held on trying again later, only to find the SP continue to fall, although it did recover a bit towards the close. If we open down again tomorrow I shall feel very sorry for myself indeed. On the plus side the cakes came out very well, so all not completely lost today.

Every time I get an offer the SP has moved, seemed to bottom out at 40p, 44.5p as I started typing this posting, will check again before hitting post lol. Am off to bake some fairy cakes for the basketball group tonight, it will help calm my nerves. Ridiculous that such a news release should do this to the SP. 44.25p bid 45.75p offer...

I've been posting on ADVFN too, here's my comment: Of course this could be a shakeup to get all the profit takers out, encourage lots of selling (if so it's working) and give the MMs a fat profit if/when ZED makes its bid. I think there's a huge amount of shorting going on and in your shoes I'd probaly stick with the 25000 (roughly the same number I have now) as it would be tragic to get caught out on the rebound. But that's me, I did try to sell half but cancelled when I thought they were taking the pee on the offer price. Just can't tell where this stomach ulcer inducing share is going next.

Doubt you'll get 43p, but 46p looks like a good result.

The last half hour has seen a 6.5p crash in the SP. If ZED are in any way serious about bidding they must be rubbing their hands in glee.