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GLEN is world's biggest coal trader...massive increase in coal price last year was largely why she made $18bn in free cash flow
warm winter weather is bad for coal (coal down massively over last few days) and gas (Cenrtica/British Gas is biggest faller on FTSE100 today, followed by GLEN.....
GLEN is nicely up today - along with a big rise in the whole of the FTSE100. Odd as overnight the FTSE futures was showing no sign of a rise on opening. Not sure why?
Happy New year evi, billi and the GLEN stalwarts. Hoping for a nice rise this week.
GoroM posted earlier about copper output falling to ask will this impact GLEN SP? Anyone know?
Nice rise this morning. Is that because China reopening?
nice movement upwards toward 560s again - guess its also because FTSE is going up
yes i see...and more hopeful news out of China re Covid easing
sudden jump up to 548...2 per cent in a few minutes...anyone know why?
thanks Evi, that's one of the best things ever written on GLEN.
It seems the Investor call last week disappointed because production forecasts had fallen. That article explains how that might actually be positive for the SP in the short to medium term.
The other reason why last week's investor call disappointed was that annualise free cash flow for 2023 was "only" $14.6bn - a fall from $18.6bn for 2022. But $14.6bn is still a massive figure - just compare to nearly all other FTSE100 companies. This is shed loads of cash.
Now Glen only gives away $1bn plus 25% of FCF before any special divi - it is notoriously mean to shareholders like that. That still leave 75% of FCF for 2023 or nearly $10bn of spare cash after paying interim and final divis. This is just such a lot of money, I think people are forgetting. Remember also that in April 2020 the SP was 146p, so that's an incredible 400 % increase in two and a half years. Every tine the SP drops i think about those days...
SP now back to within 1p of what it was before the Investor Update
This is the policy for shareholders returns on p19 of the report today:
Sustainable base distribution
comprising a fixed payout of
$1bn from Marketing cash
flows plus 25% of Industrial
attributable free cash flows
Additional cash periodically
returned to shareholders via
special distributions /
buybacks, as sustainable
surplus capital materialises
SHAREHOLDER
DIST
Living, p23 of today's slide report: free cash flow for 2023 is projected at $14.3bn
How does that compute in terms of shareholder returns?
From Motley Fool....
2 FTSE 100 dividend stocks Hargreaves Lansdown investors are buying!
Hargreaves Lansdown investors are loading up on these FTSE index dividend stocks today. Should I join in to boost my passive income?
Royston Wild?
Published 5 December, 3:39 pm GMT
BP.
GLEN
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I’m searching for the best dividend stocks to buy for 2023. Here are two that Hargreaves Lansdown investors like at the moment.
9.3% dividend yield!
1M
Glencore (LSE: GLEN) sits at the top of the list of most popular stocks with Hargreaves Lansdown investors. The mining business has accounted for 1.55% of all buy orders during the last seven days.
Its share price has soared 61% during the past 12 months. This leaves it trading on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 5.9 times for next year. It also carries a market-beating 9.3% dividend yield at current prices.
Encouragingly for dividend investors the predicted dividend is covered two times over by anticipated earnings. This gives a wide margin of safety in case profits come in lower than expected.
Watch for the supercycle
Cyclical shares like commodities producers could fall in 2023 if the global economy tanks. Weak growth translates into lower demand for raw materials. But I believe Glencore’s rock-bottom valuation reflects this possibility.
In fact, signs that China is loosening Covid-19 restrictions are a good omen for mining businesses for next year. The Asian economic powerhouse accounts for around 70% and 50% of the world’s iron ore and copper alone.
I think metals and energy producer and trader Glencore could be a great investment for the long term too. The world looks set for a fresh commodities supercycle driven by the transition to green energy and urbanisation in emerging markets.
"which reduced Net funding and Net DEBT to $28.0 billion and $2.3 billion respectively"
Chaps, this is simply a matter of understanding the grammar of the sentence. The word "respectively" is designed to order the meaning of the sentence thus: the first given figure ($28bn) refers to the first subject (Net funding) and the second figure($2,3bn) refers to the second subject (Net Debt).
Daytrade, a nice rise again today - along with other miners. Record highs again. Potentially dangerous territory obviously.
Does anyone have thoughts on why the Investor Call tomorrow could move the SP up even more? These things can often be a damp squib especially if too much expectation is built in...
On the basis of what Living has spotted about Copper and Dow just going up and coal going up and I see FTSE100 futures are up I would expect , in the absence of something nasty overnight, our GLENDA to move towards the 570's towards lunchtime tomorrow.
No worries QZQZ. Google is very good but its easy to google an old article. I recall that in 2015 Glenda was in debt to the tune of around $50bn. As the market cap of the company was only about 10/£15bn, she was basically owned by the banks who lent her this money. In other words, she was worth less than nothing - and therefore so were the shares. Ivan, God bless him, saved the company from almost certain death. The shares were at 65 p. He managed to re-negotiate the debt terms. He saved the company and the shareholders from total oblivion. Nobody said Ivan was Mr Perfect. But for this single act he deserved a medal.
The turnaround since then has been one of the most extraordinary stories of FTSE100 companies
QzQz I think the debt is now only £2bn, at least according to the last half year results
can someone explain why it's gone up today and yesterday? It's now record high. It's very nice for those of us who are holding and are long but it would be good to understand just a little...I know coal and copper are going up is that the reason?
564.50 It's actually quite hard to believe what we are seeing this week. It's not that long ago that she was 440 (1 Sept) and 400 (July 5). Despite all the v bad background macro news, Glenda appears to be motoring onwards and upwards. Surely this can't continue? I would be very grateful for your thoughts on why December 6 could be even better news.