The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
Nothing of what anyone is writing here will have any influence on the share price!
What is does do is influence retail investors. An investor is someone who effectively lends a company money and expects a return.
Now look back and tell me when an investor made a return on this in the last 10 years? - if you were lucky and traded at certain periods maybe yes, otherwise a big big no.
Just a few month ago at over 3p the consensus was that it can only go up (together with a deluded 9.5p valuation). Today the sp is 2.3p… so anyone who has urged caution should be applauded. This has potentially saved any retail investor a lot of stress, money and aggravation. - Fact!
Is it now low enough to risk an investment? If you look how many shares the directors are buying the answer is a big no. They are happy to issue new shares for free, but not risk their own money to buy 2.3p shares that are apparently worth 9.5p right now … this tells you all you need to know.
The 9.5p valuation was pants years ago and won’t be achieved anytime soon which makes it completely meaningless.
Palm oil capacity won’t be at 100% for years (never mind the second mill that was promised years ago).
Cashew production nowhere near break even (let alone making a profit).
No dividend or buy back for 2-3 years.
Do your own research, but I know where I’m going to look for a return for my money (not here!!)
I’ll add this to the bingo:
- volumes continue to gradually improve
- issue of equity
- AC12
- Hastings, like the battle
Unfortunately retail investors are helpless when it comes to companies that are controlled by large shareholders.
By their own definition the board values the shares at over 40p and there is a $25 million cash voucher sitting in the cupboard (to be redeemed on FID).
Any sane person would take out a loan to cover this short period of a (possible) funding shortfall rather than gift away shares that are worth 40p (their words not mine)… but don’t worry it’s not their money is it?!
Just ask them when they are going to resign for incompetence.
This is not a technology company. - Let alone that there are a dozen projects outstanding that haven’t been completed in the last 5 years; - if the numbers were that great, why can’t simple things be paid in cash rather than issuing new shares that no-one wants to pay a fair price for?
Why haven’t the directors bought a couple of million shares each rather than ripping off retail shareholders?
When are we going to see the 9p valuation, suggested by the “independent” broker (we are paying)?? - For years by the way!
This thing has been a complete gamble for the last 10 years. The previous board never developed anything or created a revenue stream so it was a sitting duck.
The new team took over to release the cash that was sitting in the account and that’s what they’ve done.
It’s shocking to hear that the government is sitting on their hands and still haven’t approved the sale, but judging by the speed this whole saga is taking it’s not surprising.
The fundraising isn’t worrying as such as the current board sees the true value above 40p. The smart thing would be to take a loan and not dilute the share price.
There is potential here with this company, the main fault is the management.
While staff and directors get paid on a monthly basis. Investors who made it all happen have seen no reward in the last 5 years.
Your slice of the cake isn’t worth anything if the board keeps issuing more and more shares and no dividends are being paid.
The external signs are all positive (for cashews and palm oil), but it doesn’t matter how much revenue or profit is being generated if they are being divided by an ever growing cake.
“production will gradually increase” … from what to what??
What a great update let’s see how close it’s finally moved to the 9.5p valuation from the experts … ah 0.7% rise to 3.25p - genius!!
Aww that brings back memories… gone are the days of those fancy PowerPoint presentations… never mind.
Plenty of positives there… let’s see how closed it moved towards the 9p… ah 2.95 got it!
Current market capitalisation is 3.5m if memory serves me right £50m is still due on FID, so that would mean the share price should move closer to 15p.
Management has previously mentioned that the see the value over 50p but that was years ago.
It’s difficult to price this now with years of dilution, hidden cost and staff bored from years of thumb twiddling.
It’s beyond my understanding what they do all day except getting paid.
I wouldn’t get too involved with day to day trading.
There could be any number of reasons. Someone short selling the share, someone having to sell at any price or someone having to close a leveraged trade.
What is more concerning are the overall goals management what to achieve. I guess the second palm oil mill, the sustainability certification, the third commodity and the renewable energy project are off the table. Let’s find out what they are planning now?!
I don’t really know what to think here.
Since the takeover and the change of management this is a pure investment play, whereby they are waiting until the thing is up and running and it will be sold.
What are they spending £200k a month on? An admin person on £25k a year can do that job. Answering calls and doing PowerPoint presentations. Get rid off all the staff and the office space and just sit there and wait until the £50 million fee comes in than sell the remaining stake to the highest bidder.
I don’t think it’s a good interview.
He is trying to deflect by saying someone sold some shares in Feb that’s why it dropped to 1.8p
Interestingly he even had to correct himself that the shelling machines are still not operating and are still being commissioned.
No mention of the endless printing of new shares and not addressing previously raised issues:
- 24,000 hectares of land planted in Guitry and second CPO Mill built (as promised in 2016)
- RSPO member - certification (as promised in 2019)
- Processing 30,000tpa of RCNs (as promised in 2019)
- Third commodity as well as clean energy (I think first mentioned in 2020)
I hope you met him at a bar and he bought you a drink, so you got something out of it.
As an investor I’m not at all interested at things management can’t control. I’m happy to explain to him the reasons for an increase in wholesale prices, but understanding that it might have got something to do with the lower availability of stock due to a poor harvest can be difficult to gasp.
What management is responsible for is failure to deliver, promising something and doing something else, failure to communicate and hoping we forget what has been promised for years!!!
If I invested £1000 five years ago I now have £220 left. How much has he earned in the last five years for that achievement?
He should do the right thing and walk or get fired.
Just a quick pulse check how close we are to the 9.5p target… ah ok 2.2p … never mind.
The lack of updates is just baffling.
Kevin’s team spent most of their time creating lovely PowerPoint presentations which looked great but never came through.
I don’t understand what they have been doing on a day to day basis over the last two years?? We know there is stuff in the ground, we drilled into it just open the tab and start selling it or liquidising it or making fertiliser out of it.
Or sell the whole thing (like others did). What are they doing???? What is going on????
After having a target price of 9p on it for over a year … while the share price remained around 3p all year - they have now raised it to 9.5p.
We don’t know when, but it will shall be 9.5p eventually, what a relief.
On more positive news another 600k worth of shares have been issued. Beers all around !!
At least the broker has reiterated their 9p target so it’s all good then.
The market is one thing, but the company’s management is another. This should be trading at around 45p and if I were management I would have said to any potential investor “look the market is down and it’s a great opportunity to come in now”.
The fact that they could only get a fundraising done with a 30% discount at a heavily depressed share price speaks volumes. If management rates the share at 10p why should anyone pay more? It’s only small retail investors who get suckered in.
I will not buy any more.