Member Info for Danielm89

Heating up, stockbox interview pencilled in for the 15th and stage 2 potentially starting march according to the prospectus.

https://www.africaintelligence.com/central-africa/2022/03/28/un-assigning-consultants-to-establish-battery-precursor-factory-in-katanga,109763445-art

https://www.theafricareport.com/100130/lithium-mining-in-drc-could-make-it-a-top-global-supplier/amp/

“Management will investigate various other shareholder value-add activities such as further exploration along the 3 km strike, increasing mine production output, and potential Phase 2 drilling. Phase 2 drilling will allow a new JORC resource to be released.”

“New potential investment opportunities have emerged in the DRC region while preparing for LSE readmission. Management aims to study these prospects in the near term.”

“Additional potential brown-field targets of interest already identified in Africa.”

Wonder what’s next? We know there’s potential in cobalt, but it makes me think there’s bigger thinks coming.

I’ll go full blown speculation and suggest the natural “next opportunity” is a lithium play in DRC….

Glencore have a huge lithium mine in Katanga.

“ The Molulu Project is an ex-producing medium-scale copper/cobalt asset in the Katangan Copperbelt, adjacent to producing mines”

Pure speculation… but imagine.

Ahhh, so the plan is to mine the mine. Not to process and sell 280,000 tonne of waste (not lithium), the waste processing is a means to an end, to pay for the mine and hopefully pay for mining activities.

I think a few have it twisted as currently the waste pile is valued at £2 billion or something according to some. Oops…

Very interesting model, hope it comes off.

https://www.annualreports.com/HostedData/AnnualReportArchive/a/ASX_AVL_2018.pdf

Page 9

Following the receipt and analysis of the results at Blesberg, the company has concluded that there is only localised development of low-grade LCT mineralisation. The drilling has, however, identified extensive pegmatite development containing a high quality and proportion of glass/ceramic quality feldspar. Since the value proposition of the project has changed significantly compared to the original earn-in deal, which was centred on lithium and tantalum mineralisation, AVL suspended the remainder of the cash payments of USD750,000 due under the agreement to the vendors of Southern African Tantalum and Lithium Mining Pty Ltd (SALT) and renegotiated an agreement that more accurately represents the potential value of the project.

Report done by AVL, essentially the mine is not workable…

The anything of value (lithium grade 5% or above) in the 280,000 tonne waste pile is owned by the lender.

Am I missing something? Guys on twitter and telegram claim this to be a ten bagger, but all I can find is a “dud mine” and “pile of rocks”?

What are you most looking forward too?

Focus from Interview:

Early November being 60 days from the date this was aired.

30-60 days
- 4 pits, 3 underwater
- Road Works / set-up 20 person camp and equipment
- Equipment from SA to DRC (circa 30 days)
- Mine upside seam of mine not underwater (Copper ore body only 1.5m to 2m under surface to mine immediately)
- In conjunction, exploratory trenching (every 250m to know where to mine)

60 days
- 1st Ore sales
- 1st Reporting of revenues

Rest of '22
- JORC Compliant Report
- M&A maybe 2 this year and 2 next year - 5 cashflow and assets

Strategic Plan
- 5 Mines / 5 Countries targeting polymetallic mines (e.g. Cobalt + Copper)
- Sub-sahar and Africa being targeted

Warrants

JV is just a brucey bonus, he stated on a webinar at the start of the year that “doing a JV has to come from a position of power, or you end up with a bad deal”. The fact that they approached him is a very good sign.

Even without the JV COPL has enormous potential. As far as sp predictions go I’d go for £100m+ mcap by this years end/q1, £200-300m mcap by the end of 2023 with shares in issue around 350-400m. I think that is very reasonable to expect.

15.5 being the previous bottom has to hold imo, but it’s definitely looking better than it has since June. Gla

The need for the RBL is above everything imo, even the JV. It can remove next years hedge and risks associated with the bondholder and credit lender, which awakens institutions. It’s literally 2 of this years goals laid out by the company.

Restructure COPL America, Inc.’s Hedging Program

Refinance COPL America, Inc.’s credit facility to reduce the Company’s cost of capital

COPL has been a slog for us all, putting it lightly. The attractive nature of the assets is salivating especially when you compare mcaps to our peers. But we never seem to move in the right direction??

Why?

• Production never reaching the proposed potential of 5000bopd and if fact decreasing.

• Dodgy lenders, warrants and equity raises.

• Random information lumped on our lap (technical default and convertible bonds).

• Brutal hedged oil swaps.

Not one is alone responsible, but all have built up to the point we’re at now. At this very moment the share price is on its knees. So what is next?

• Appropriate fixes, upgrades and methods implemented to streamline the field to maximum efficiency. With more to come, along with additional wells.

• Replace dodgy lender with “gold standard” bank provided RBL. Equity raises in future to be carried out by “investors” using vwap (instead of randomly raising at a severely reduced levels), through a bond scheme where every bond is RNA’d and accounted for.

• No doubt we’ll still get random information lumped on our lap, but Iv heard the company is planning on providing Vaseline with every share purchase.

• Oh the hedge, what a poisoned chalice you are. If oil wasn’t that disgustingly low, atomic would never have been bought. I’m interested to see the plan with this one, other companies have deferred hedges, if SCF can be replaced by RBL I can’t see any reason we can’t do the same?

Big plans, small mcap. High risk, high reward. We all want the same thing, “to win” in our investment weather short, medium or long term. Most of us are everyday folk taking a chance at improving our capital position, let’s try to all settle our differences and help each other to reach that goal.

You can't be successful in business without taking risks. It's really that simple.

Adena Friedman

This seems to cause quite a stir in the Q2 financials:

As at August 15, 2022, the date of filing this interim financial statement, the Company received conversion notices from Bondholders to convert two 2024 Bonds and ten 2025 Bonds with a total principal amount of $2.4 million. Further to conversion provisions and calculations provided by a calculation agent of the Bond instruments, the Company issued a total of 11,994,002 Common Shares in respect of the conversion of these Bonds.

Bondholder's option, are as follows:

• settled in shares if a share settlement notice is issued by the Bondholder on or after 45 days from the date of conversion notice. The share settlement option provides for the conversion payment to be settled by issuing a number of Common Shares that is calculated using the 5-day lowest market price of Common Shares, being that of the next five trading days from the date of the share settlement notice; (or)

• deferred until the Bonds original maturity date and the conversion payment will bear interest at the same interest rates as applicable for the Bonds, but accrued for periods commencing six months after Bonds issue date and payable at the Bonds original maturity date.

Notice the (or), some seem to think bond holders get $1.6m and 12m shares but they get 2 options either:

Shares or money deferred till the maturity date.

My own interpretation, hope it helps. Hopefully we’ll get some clarity.

This is my interpretation of the bonds (simplified):

Each bond (200k) are worth:

shares (1,194,029 at 0.1675p)

or

money (200k + interest + dividends if any)

The shares are just the bondholders backup if anything went wrong.

Fractions of Shares will not be issued or delivered on exercise of Conversion Rights or pursuant to Condition 6.4 and no cash payment or other adjustment will be made in lieu thereof.

* (However, if the Conversion Right in respect of more than one Bond is exercised pursuant to any one Conversion Notice, the number of such Shares to be issued and delivered in respect thereof shall, in accordance with the definition of “Reference Shares”, be calculated by the Calculation Agent on the basis of the aggregate principal amount of such Bonds being so converted and rounded down to the nearest whole number of Shares.)

** Conversion Rights may not be exercised (i) following the giving of notice by the holder of a Bond then outstanding pursuant to Condition 10; (ii) in respect of a Bond in respect of which the relevant holder has exercised its right to require the Issuer to redeem pursuant to Condition 7.5; or (iii) (except following receipt of any notice requiring the redemption of the Bonds pursuant to Condition 7.4) in the period from the Record Date falling two London business days immediately preceding an Interest Payment Date.
The Issuer will procure that Shares to be issued on exercise of Conversion Rights will be issued to, or to the order of, the holder of the Bonds in accordance with the Payment Details in accordance with the provisions of Condition 6.10. Such Shares (other than Additional Shares) will be deemed to be issued as of the relevant Conversion Date. Any Additional Shares to be issued pursuant to Condition 6.4 will be deemed to be issued as of the relevant Reference Date.

I think this explains the reason:

*if more than 1 bond is issued the shares have to be issued and held.

** just because their issued doesn’t mean the bondholders wants to execute their rights.

It’s stuff like that that keeps me here shaa, Iv managed to get my average down to 22p from 40p because I believe in the asset that much.

People moan about the bod (rightly so at times) but I think we’re close to a point where we the potential will outperform the grind we’ve been through.

I’m fairly confident that 3000-4000 bopd will be achieved by the end of the year, I have that down to be between £1-2m profit per month. Once we reach profitably the potential grows exponentially.

Your next post is your 1000 make it count livelong

Ryder Scott has reviewed the proposed spacing of Phase 1 drilling and has indicated it will allow for the booking of 2P producing/ developed reserves and 2P undeveloped reserves

I don’t think your far off livelong

500-800bbl/d of production capacity is restricted due to surface facility working pressure constraints.

• Nine additional wells to be drilled, completed and tied-in in 2022
• Optimization will unlock >4,000bbl/d (gross) over the next 1-2yrs
• Cost (gross): US$49M

8 production 1 injection well, in addition, 2 production wells will be converted to injection wells;

Gas Gathering: $12M,
Crude Oil Production Facility: $16M,
Wells: $21M

This will attract the building of a sales pipeline twinned to the High Pressure Gas supply line for tie-in to a regional oil transmission line. This will increase oil price net-backs by $2.50/bbl

• Ryder Scott has reviewed the proposed spacing of Phase 1 drilling and has indicated it will allow for the booking of 2P producing/ developed reserves and 2P undeveloped reserves
• AFEs are being prepared for drilling of the first five wells in 2022- 2023 for circulation to WI partners
• Current estimated cost (gross): $15M

That would make low ball from that 2500 bopd.

The $49m a further 4000bopd over 1-2 years

6500 bopd ?? before even touching the “new find”

5 wells 150 bopd for argument’s sake= 750 bopd

Grand total= 7250 bopd

$238,162,500 revenue per year at an average of $90 per barrel at an estimated cost of $64m. Carlsberg don’t do potential………..

I wish I could answer that, going off the “comparison for comparison sake” I’d say 70m to the mcap especially on the run up to the first drill. We had a mcap of 40m pre find just atomic with zero interest (sub 1m volume days December 2021), CUDA using that method another 20m. If I had a target for the end of the year 130m mcap which would be 54p (excluding the warrants which would dilute it down 30% to 39p) but doesn’t factor in a profitable quarter, over 2000 bopd production or RBL. I think those could add 20m each as a baseline which gives us 190m which again take us 50-60p.

But this is COPL, it’s impossible to quantify it.