Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Can anyone give me a reasonable estimate of the situation, cash wise, in the club as it stands -allowing for last years CL money and this years transfer dealings. Also, adding seperately what can be expected from this years CL assuming a 3rd place finish and a move into the CL? I've estimated that the club should be, as i write, around£18m in the black, and should, by January, be about £28m in the black. these seem like very high sums. but i recall Celtic were in the red to the tune of c£800k last year, but since then there was last years CL money and the transfer profit this summer, bring it to in or around£18m (allowing for running costs, distributions to 3rd parties etc). if the figures are as above...and given how Celtic benefit from the Champions route into the CL...doesnt the Clubs valuation of £50-£60m seem very low, especially as The Rangers football Club 2012 have a valuation of only £20m less from a standing start?
http://harryhood67.wordpress.com/2013/03/22/proven-collusion-and-the-need-to-unite/
http://www.emfootball.co.uk/attend.html Add in sevcos numbers are higher than ours, our bums on seats - attendances, not ST, are between 25-28k ( I can confirm this having attended 3 league games (I live in dublin) this season at those numbers) that puts us outside the top 15. As a fan that doesnt want to see what happened to sevco - happen to us - I want us to address each of our problems front up. As you'll know, PL admitted at the CT meeting last night that he was colluding with the police to have fans lifted in the GB. If you are going to try argue with someone - at least know the inside track. I suggest you read their press release from last night.
I ask you simply to address the issue of attendances - and you hide behind ST. Im 43. And a well established investor and great fan of Celtic - like you i am sure. but I am not a flag waver - if we do not get into the CL next season - crowd numbers at SPL games will dictate how many transfer requests are put in by the Lustigs, Ledleys etc. I blame the fans for the pathetic numbers - I blame the board for the issue with the GB. I'm not wasting my time on showing you the figures - go do some research on attendances - NOT ST sales. I still say Celtic uis a buy - because i believe the J Park/Lennon axis will gwet us into the CL again next season and that players will be foung to replace Wanyama and hooper...who i imagine will go for £15-20m. Add that to the current finances and it is madness to have the club valued at aropunf the £60m mark....but - its all predicated on keeping the players onside.
I'm sorry to say you are falling into the same trap as sevco. 1 - i specifically asked to address attendances. We know season tickets. I'm talking attendances...ergo atmosphere - a pleasant atmosphere to encourage players to satay. i agree ST sales. biuit I specifically addressed the other. Our attendances make it an unpleasant atmosphere for fans and players - in my opinion. Id rather 35k ST sales and 35k attendances than 40k sales and 20k attendances. i note you do not challenge the fact that celtics attendances have gone from top 5 to outside the top 30 in britain in 3 years. 2 - Again - i specifically stated attendances/bums on seats. there are many fans who think we are in fine fettle with 42k crowds. We dont - we have around 28k-30k. you know that your self as you'vre attended games last season. i blame the fans for that. I blame me , us, our fellow fans. We are not the old rangers - lets not lie to ourselves. And i note you are rattling on about how great we are. Get off that train - self praise no praise - we are not turning up. We are not as good as we were. to hell if we are better than others. since when did we measure ourselves by others? We are not turmning uop like we did only a couple of years ago. 3 - i believe you should be penalised. Leave your St with a supporters club or a friend in Glasgow, let uit be used for free - get that person to buy a pie and programme as a fee. God sake man - you are responsible for an empty seat. Leave it with a charity or a school or something - and let them use it. Let them maybe convert a youndg boy to the cause instead of letting it go to waste. 4 - In my opinion - the board are on the verge of splitting the fans,.. already , friends of mine have very mucgh split on the issue. 2 years ago - we were all honky dory on the GB/NL and the board. We were happy with the way the club was going. now - my friends an i are split on the GB. There is your proof. I belive the GB are 100% right and should be cherished by the board with regular meetings etc...my friend thinks that the board should shut them down and spread their tickets about. Thats proof enough for you i think. dont bury your head - celtic have deep fubndamental problems. To hell with sevco - we dont need them. But if we do not address our own issues - we will pay a si9gnificant price. We were here before in 2003...look what happened then. 4 -
As an investor and fan of the club, i don't want to make the same mistakes that the old rangers and their fans did. Namely, live on the never never and hide their heads in the sand. My case is now proven that we have exceptionally poor attendances. Arguing this point with me is now futile. So - what to be done?. in my opinion - there is little to be done by the club, barr a few things - 10 match season tickets, half season tickets etc. The club have done their bit, given us a great team - made us one of the most profitable british clubs last year etc. Its the fans who have to look at themselves. Sevco, granted - lower prices, are attracting more and I believe that celtic attendances have dropped out of the top 30 in Britain. Now - I said attendances - bums on seats. thats the key. Selling 40k season tickets is scant comfort when Ledley et al look up at 30k crowds on a wet winters evening. so - this is the clubs greatest threat. My solutions 1 - The fans must look at themselves. If there is no 60k fans in scotland and ireland every 2nd week - then celticc is not a well endough "supported club". 2 - The plc stop lying about numbers and let the fans know that all must question this "greatest fans in the world" nonsense.Outwith the GB, Celtic fans are no better than the next club.The word "spoilt"comes to mind. 3 - The board come up with an incentive/stick approach to season tickets - say if a season ticket is used for 90% of the season, a voucher for a cash sum to be used in the Store is given to the holder. Or a cash back scheme is put in place. Basically, if you have a season ticket and don't use it - (you can always give it to a friend for a game) - you either get punished or dont benefit. 4 - The board and fans sort out their distrust issues. The board have played a v v dangerous game with the GB. It needs sorting. On this point i would lay the blame at the boards door. If celtic face up to these problems - things will be fine. If they don't - we will not progress any further.
I might not have made myself clear. I was looking at Celtics performance mainly. Of course sevco have a lower price, perhaps I shouldnt have not even refered to it. My point was that if there is no CL next season, I think many players might look to move on unless the crowds turn up for SPL games - forget Sevco for now. Lets just focus on Celtic. I think its fair to assume that STs will drop to around 37k next season (this is in line with the recent trend) - this is exceptionally poor, exceptionally. As we have seen, more often than not only 32k turn up. Thats my warning, no CL next season and not only will it be a loss of the major bonus - I guarantee it will put downward pressure on ST sales too. As tims, we should not make the same mistakes the OldCo fans made over the years - thinking everything was grand and that the refs/system/white knight would help them. There is a very clear danger that next year could be a major let down re our STs. Thats my main point. the Celtic fans have been v v v poor this season, some should be ashamed of themselves. You dont really get a pat on the back for attending a CL match - you get a pat on the back for turning up on a cold wednesday to watch Dundee.
Celtic fans may bury their heads in the sand on this issue, but the league attendances have frankly been abysmal. If unfortunately Celtic dont make the CL next seasomn, the financials will be veruy poor indeed. As the leagues is celtics next season anyway I do not expect to see a dramatic increase in attendance. So, financially, expect a major roller coaster if Celtic dont qualify. Theres 3 qualyfying games, I think, even without wanyama and ghooper, they shoud negotiate the first 2, the 3rd game could be very hard though. Grantyed if celtic come through them, they will pocket considerable gate receipts etc. So, my view of the value of the company is that this scenario is allowed for in the current Valuation - namely a fall off in profits to zero . But if they do qualify again, and pocket 20 m for some players and allow the scouts to do their stuff - the numbers could be good again. but......many plyers might reconsider their positions due to the shocking home attendances. all things been considered, the Rangers/Sevco are getting great numbers and will get better next season. Celtic fans cannot blame the board for the attendances, the ST prices arent bad and indeed 42,000 were sold, yet on 32,ooo turn up. so, if celtic fans want to push on - they have to make playing in CP attractive to players, esp if the CL doesnt come around again. On the whole, i still think the company is undervalued given the manager/scouts/players assets and reasonable chances of qualification for Cl over next few years.
The club is still valued below the (new)rangers and again looking at the basic maths of potential annual profit, this is clearly supported. Looking at turnover, and smoothing out good years (2012/2013) with another year where there might not be CL footbal and no sale of a high value player, then the accepted multiplier of 1-2 would indicate that there is alot more to go. the spike in the last month and especially in the last 2 days, still doesnt value the club to its full value based on fundamentals.
the spike i was thing might happen, seems to have happened/be happening. I'm also mindful of steady eddies comments. Rangers is largely a business run and owned by business men who will possible seek to sell to the highest in the shortest time. But will there be a demand for them? yes, it would seem that monies will not be re-invested and the transfer ban will mean that season tickets sales can be split out in dividends. so it would seem that rangers are over-valued simply by the fact there is a small pool of people with a large holding. Celtic is undervalued as fans might simply refuse to sell (emothional attachment etc). But again looking at the basic maths of the situation and notwithstanding the 45% increase in 3 months or 105 increase in one day, the saleable assets and likely income this year, combined with the likelihood of CL football at least once every 2 years for the next few years, it would still seem this business/club is undervalued somewhat.
I'm perplexed with the M.Cap of the club too. If you strip out the value of the stadium and lennoxtown (as you need these to carry out the business of a football club and they are therefore non reliseable, non saleable assets), we can look at likely profit, turnover and value of saleable assets. At this moment in time, the club looks likely to make a clean profit of £25-£30m this year and will be left with zero debt too(having been largely wiped out by the sale of Ki). Player assets, like Wanyama at say a sale price of £12-£15m, would still leave celtic in a position to function as a successful football team. Add into this the system in place seems to be unearthing high quality and low cost players - its very hard to see how the club can be valued at £47m, when this season alone, after the possible sale of wanyama - a tot profit of £35-40m will be realised. Then valuing on a common 1 or 1.5 of turnover, would indicate that the club could, without much controversy be valued at c£70-£100m. finally - looking at the value (and the best comparison is an open market float) of the new club, sevco/rangers, we see it is valued 20% higher than celtic, notwithstanding the fact the club isn't out of the woods, has player values of no more than a few million for the entire squad, unproven board and management and no likelihood of a decent run in europe for at least 5 years. ....then, one can only but deduce that there is a major spike going to occur in the Celtic share price, or a dramatic collapse in the new rangers share price - or a combination of both.