Member Info for damofarl

Itsalottery;

I feel the RNS debunks your question, and debunks your concern as to whether viable. But judging by the SP reaction, your right.

jpp; just as i'm no *** of 5 bagger braggers, it irks me to see 'investors' struggling with a loss. i'm just the kind of guy that wants everyone to be enriched.

and whilst i feel your frustration, i do think it's emotional rather than rational. i'm not dismissing the losses inherent in your purchase around 90/95p, but frankly you paint it blacker than it is.

on the face of it you have taken a c. 50% loss in the last 3 years, which anyone, i, would consider a disaster, but that isn't the whole story..in that, in that time you have accrued 21p in dividends so actually your break even is an sp of 74p.

if you believe that the nav, (which is pretty much based on the property values) is truish, that's in excess of your break even. even if you don't believe it is, the rental income of those (overvalued?) properties, will yield a dividend over 3 years that gets you to break even.

the lack of housing, the premium and protected secured rents of vulnerable customer provision, the lack of direct govt provision will ensure those rents and those dividends, unaffected by house prices/nav of the properties.

frankly,.if i had made a disastrous investment, that got me my money back in 6 years, i'd be bloody delighted, and your doom is unwarranted.

patience, not petulance, is all that is required here.

Likeitornit;

You raise a good point. Is it that Birkenstock is overvalued or we are undervalued? Personally I think both.

Personal view is DOCS is very much undervalued. I have no user attachment to DOCS it's just a (value) investment to me, only ever having bought 1 pair for my daughter. Notwithstanding such, I am still acutely aware of the cachet, and with such comes appeal, and premium pricing/pricing power. Once the metamorphication into a listed company out of private equity has settled, and the US stocking/warehousing under control, that cachet will drive through into profits.

And the cachet, uniqueness of product, will sustain a 100 years (of profits, free from debt payments), albeit I particularly see the value of the brand being absorbed within (bought by) a wider apparel group,

The repairing, recycling initiatives to me are just side shows, not profit streams in their own right, but are valuable in reinforcing the brand, quality, the personal, trendy, (ie not commercial) attachment to DOCS.

The ONLY downside I see to a rewarding long term investment here, is the quality of the product. Historically, the quality, the longevity of use, facilitated a premium price point, brand loyalty, repurchase - that quality went down under PE stewardship, and I don't see that it has reverted positively.

Alas the key point in that report is:

" we are very optimistic that parties to the transaction will go back, look at the position of the regulator, and come back by abiding by the provisions of Nigerians laws....." - IE the oilcos need to change to be compliant, not the regulator.

FAIR have now bought back just under 5% of their 15% authority, so looks like a continuance vote at AGM to extend for another 2 years to completion!

That said the buy back daily volume has risen considerablly more recently Yesterday's was 87,904 @ 54, whereas the first was 18,082 @ 47.5

The £234,000 spent in the last week suggests they aren't short of free cash - but possibly short of new investments. Either way, you can't dispute these buybacks have been a good bit of business

The SAYE price looks about right. They are normally set at a discount to SP on the determination date, which is normally about 3 months prior to first start date. If you take 20% off the SP around that time you get the 49p strike price

Agricore; love the blog.

Just as you was topping up DEC, I was exiting. I think you do DEC holder's a great service in your blog, specifically with the breaking down of hedging 'liabilities' by your explaining that accounting wise 5 years of future hedges have to be stated in the one year, which distorts the picture when only 1 not 5 years income is similarly stated. I think this will help many to understand better that aspect of their business. Despite my long term often contrarian view, and high risk appetite, I felt there was safer plays to play.

Followed the blog, hope you will continue contributing here.

Good luck to all Fairies.

Be really interesting to see what the final purchase price will be once done.

if conservatively we assume profit per bbl of $20 net of overhead/costs/opex, production from backdated purchase date at 80k a day to date, gives $1.6 billion of receipts which was the maximum agreed purchase price so surely the purchase price must be renegotiated (upwards)?

There could be an opportunity for SEPL here. Bar wanting to focus on more productive assets, MPNUs motive for sale is probably also focused on jettisoning possible historical environmental remedy/claims.

If say SEPL takes on historical obligations for environmental clean up/improvements etc, say set up a $1 billion ringfenced but owned 20 year clean up fund to legally discharge such liabilities/claims, MPNU could walk away clean, SEPL could use this fund as leverage on a renegotiated purchase price, and SEPL could curry favour with the Govt, by being Nigeria's Clean up champion.

I wish Exxon broke down financially their operating units - that way we could get a true handle on the impact MPNU could have on SEPL.

I've held this stock for 5 years or so. I've seen 30% SP drops on more than one occasion, and hell that has frustrated me. It's lack of SP progress has frustrated me. But as a value/yield investor, I was attracted to the value, the disconnect of the free cash flow generation to the mkt cap. Accepted the jurisdiction/political risk, but invested on the basis that they were cash generative (profitable), and that if that environment ever improved, and would provide (SP) uplift. I think we are getting there. What I didn't expect was that SEPL would be so focused on what they do, so immune to distractions/follys.

This was as one of the first stocks I bought, when I began investing directly myself. And I didn't expect fireworks. And there has been none. There's been theatrics legal, and delays political. Notwithstanding such, this is in an elite, of the best stocks I've ever bought

Keep patience, the faith, Gwilerz79, this is the gift that keeps on giving, and the best is yet to come.

Gwilerz79; I thank many share your frustrations.

But gladly also share your believe that without Mobil, this is undervalued. I think mgmt could have resolved this quicker, if they had sacrificed their higher corporate standards (given the usual bung), and not distracted by spurious legal actions, yes, but actually, I like the steady (if unspectacular) but sure style of mgmt. The dividend is constant, and rising, the use of a special is recognising a moment of time/the priority to return to shareholders success, without being held hostage to fortune.

What I really like is SEPL sticks to its knitting, and as unspectacular/unexciting as that can be, delivers constantly and reliably.

I like seatanks, think they could considerably increase dividends here

I like you, think the trajectory, without Mobil, is enriching.

When, and it will be when, Mobil gets the yes, this will explode both in SP and in wider investment community understanding and belief.

Gwilerz79;

It's Nigeria - in the absence of a brown envelope, nothing moves fast. SEPL's jurisdiction of operation is integral to why this is so so undervalued.

I don't think it's 'wasting 20 months', I think it's been 20 months of receiving 8% yield to be patient.

And when that patience on Mobil is realised, the backdated agreement date, that wait ,means that actual adjusted acquisition cost will be insignificant compared to the forward looking income, economies of scale, utilisation of best practice, terminal/route to markets improvement, and gas oppurtunity.

As an addendum, I think the tightly held (70% in 5 hands), means that this will never be bought out by a Lafarrge etc, and the value isn't in such. The value is in the tightly, basically privately held interests to secure a continual cash cow, demonstrated by the previously missed/delayed dividend, due to owners wanting to maximise tax efficient returns.

I've long been a fan of STCM, and do think it's misunderstood, some of the expectations of it are unreasonable.

The winter performance was poor, but it's never great, exacerbated this year by extreme weather, transport failures and currency fluctuations, and I do think the impact of nature, and the seasonal nature of product use, has been wrongly been inflated to this being a dog.

It's a lowly traded small stock, it's going to be vulnerable to the vagaries of small stock holders, trades disproportionately impacting the SP, both negatively and positively, and if you are trading represents both oppurtunity and risk. But looking long term as I do, I don't see a business that is going to grow 50% but I do see a business in a long term need, with the nation's need to build infrastructure, be it homes or roads or hospitals. The trajectory on that is constant and long term. Whilst rebuilding Ukraine (at some point) isn't really an opportunity, building Kazakhstan is.

And the economics of importing cement means STCM home production will long be a part of that. Will it grow, I don't know - I doubt it. But it doesn't need to, it can continue to pump out like levels to yield profits (dividends).

And on dividends, well they have stated an intention for 2-3p by November, and yes that is a reduction on the previous 5p but that misunderstands the 5p which was a catch up (due to the desire to avoid tax) of previous missed dividends. A like for like dividend, based on the preceding (generous) regular unmissed dividends would suggest an annual dividend in the 3.5 to 4p range. I believe it will be 2p and whilst some might suggest that is a 50% cut, I'd argue both that they were very high before, and that they are being prudent in paying an amount each year reflective on that year. A 2p payment this time would be acknowledging the importance of shareholders, and a confidence in the long term profitability of the company, and at that level is covered by (backward looking winter impacted) cash at hand.

Yes they need an environment both weather and politically which improves demand/pricing, and then it's fairly fixed cost base will through off excess cash, which will be leveraged by the considerable amounts of money STCM has spent in upgrading, making more efficient, their production, in the last 18 months.

If you are here for a quick trade, a dividend churn, I think their is a risk, oppurtunity. If you are here for the long term, as I am, I think there is reward.

Good luck whatever your position, but for the patient long term, this will always deliver.

Of note in the fact sheet was this I thought...." We have been selectively adding risk in recent trading sessions to deploy cash and remain invested including adding AAA positions"

They certainly seem to be trading up to quality.

Report post after;

Disregard the green agenda, go through the sums. Make your judgement. The Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, a state regulatory body, assessment of viable wells is the key here.

https://ohiorivervalleyinstitute.org/diversified-energy-a-business-model-built-to-fail-appalachia/

https://ohiorivervalleyinstitute.org/diversified-energys-questionable-financial-practices-continue-in-2022/

GavsterNBC - BGLP

Aye, I had the same problem, due to my work position!

Conkersdeep,; just seen your comment about SLFR which I've long held - SLFR just got it wrong with it's investments, jumping on anaerobic bandwagons without thinking the sums through - they just aren't in the Marble/Blackstone/Fair class. I actually bought in at wind down, so for me they have wip d their face. BGLF is a different ball game altogether. I believe they will realise most of that NAV discount - with patience.

Observations form today's interim report:

$33m in cash receipts (against $45m last year) which alone is 15% of mkt cap.

Defaults at 0.30% and CCC rated debt exposure at 5.03%, both below industry averages of 1.8% and 7.11% respectively.

Whilst confirming that the current elevated rate environment was very beneficial margin wise against previously secured lower loan origination costs, FAIR 'does not foresee a near term catalyst for the CLO primary market to pick up', stating it is hard to generate attractive returns for new issues

Was hoping it might be a little more ebullient, but boringly predictable is good too!

Good luck all Fairies.

Kentio; a lot of detail in these results, but positive is undoubtedly 'uninterrupted' cash flows, and that cash inflows will continue to be paid from inflows.

The difference between BGLFs NAV and IFRS navs....well if you take the IFRS value, basically on selling up today, firesale style, that's around 15% above current SP.

A lengthy but informative positive read