Member Info for damofarl

Well take your view, your conviction, and put a sell option on it. That will be a more valuable use of your time, and this board.

Seatanks; on regular special dividends, I think this is the first time I've ever disagreed with you!

Whilst I agree, that fiscally they could easily/sustainably raise dividends, I'd rather they were quarterly incremental, with a one off annual 'special'. Yes because I like consistency but mostly because I don't like the hostage to fortune that the quarterly specials could create. As soon as one is missed, invariably people irrationality ignore it's special status are subsumed by the 'drop' the loss, and a worsening environment syndrome. And also because, I like Bismarck would rather debt is minimised/reduced.

I've put my thoughts on this before, but actually, because of the longevity of the Mobil deal, I actually think, numbers wise it is already a free ride/purchase, if one number crunches the agreement. It's zero cost. That said, I think purely from a good business point of view, to acknowledge Mobil's continual unstinting silent support, a revised higher 'notional' purchase price will be agreed, albeit that such in reality will be from Mobil's own earning on the transferring assets in such time. The net off is always going to mean it's going to cost less than the agreed price. Such notional increase maybe in my prev suggested 'rehabilitation' fund, and it, in my opinion will include a giving up of a percentage to the Nigerian state copartner to get it over the line, which actually could solve their lack of cash (even bankroll a loan to purchase a % from SEPL paid down against production) whereby the govt can claim they are taking control of the nation's resources for the benefit of the people. In truth, and I know this would probably appear unpopular here, if SEPL were to instead offer a % of itself rather than the deal, that would generate constant income for the govt, a vested interest in the govt supporting SEPL's ambitions(read approving acquisitions/expansions/other consolidations), whilst extolling that Nigeria is open and supportive of private investment, demonstrating that Nigeria's people are benefitting from it, and harnessing SEPL's professionalism.

Other than the assets of oil/gas, I really think that is great value in the experience/knowledge transfer that will come with the Mobil staff, which I think will drive a wider SEPL knowledge/ability base, and greater economies/efficiencies.

I disagree on quarterly specials, but otherwise, I don't think there's a cigarette paper between us in our belief in the enriching quality that SEPL represents.

Canetoad;

March Rich. Nick Leeson.And that's without thinking about it.

And they were both dubious crooks.

34adsaddsa;

Your make a pertinent point about honeycomb. I too feel pollen hijacked the certainty/focus/profitability of honeycomb into the uncertainty of asset mgmt/PE. A classic example of trying to be all things to all people and ending up as nothing to nobody. That said, I'm a fan of POLN, mainly because the heritage honeycomb assets are still throwing off cash (due to their origination time and rising rates) but also because I believe all asset managers are undervalued in the context that their are too many of them, with high fixed costs that are ripe for consolidation/economies of reducing such overhead in their increasing shrinking in the face of the popularity (rightly in my opinion) of ETFs to deliver equivalent performance at lower cost.

But then I am a contrarian/esoteric/patient investor. For now I'm holding firm, but if/when it transpires that the old honeycomb is CONTINUALLY propping up/flattering the PE/asset mgmt side, I'll exit.

I feel I'm in the minority here, but actually I'm quite comfortable as is.

Some excellent posts today, thanks all.

I find the unsecured nature of this bond, even for properties more favourably considered at issue unusual. They are invariable linked to a (sellable) asset, and where they aren't, at a considerably higher coupon than this to reflect that all or nothing risk. My understanding of this is, that even at the rosier issue times, unsecured, the coupon would have been nearer to 10% to reflect such. That it wasn't, that it wasn't secured suggests to me their was a (special?) relationship, which to me bodes well to this being rolled over, albeit at an eye watering rate. But frankly, I'd rather renew the bond at 12% allowing time for the market, and stock market perceptions to normalise, than a 30% firesale haircut on selling properties.

And the market, RGL will normalise.

Good luck all, whatever your view. Really valuing the breadth of contributions here at the moment

Generalmonty; good spot that. And the long standing relationship suggests at maturity, there won't be a problem rolling it over albeit at a higher rate.

https://www.chathamfinancial.com/insights/debt-raising-and-refinancing-regional-reit

Tom48; your posts to todayfhave provided much levity (and honesty) to this board.

Keep it up.

Craig; maybe it's the realisation that there would need to be a firesale of all properties at greater than 30% discount to book price before this wouldn't repay current debt/mkt cap?

Maybe it's the realisation, that even if their rent roll remained static over 10 years it would pay off the debt, with cash to spare, and deliver a free property portfolio to boot that would need to crash 70% not to equal mkt cap.

Maybe people are waking up to the long term value/income embedded here.

Some excellent recent contributions/thoughts. Thanks to all.

I'm a big fan, not remotely concerned at current trajectory; don't think bonds/AUM is an issue at all here, the misconception of there impact is, hence the SP being hammered.

I'll just keep Lurkioing, enjoying the dividends, and wait for the day the unrealised potential here, is realised. I've time!

Agricore; indeed, and that NAV rise is even more impressive considering it encompasses the dividend payment in September.

Monty888; wolverine make CAT boots (and Hush Puppies amongst others). DOCS would be a perfect fit for them

Holders can take comfort in the accelerated amortisation being undertaken by DEC.

For example, in the alternative performance metrics in their presentation, the ABS (VI) debt of $460m is now only $184m, less than a year later.....

Rylidan; excellent post - albeit that I see some of those weaknesses you suggest as actually being strengths. I think our difference only lies in timelines. Where you think govt constraints is a concern, I think therin the oppurtunity.

So there's at least 8 people here in la la land, who don't have a scooby. No one with any sense, and definitely no one that's been here more than a nanosecond, will think payment is arriving on Day 1. That's not ramping/deramping - it's just considered pragmatism as opposed to delusional desire.

Bismarck; in one of SEPLs more recent updates, it reconfirmed that the original banking syndicate were still on board, ready to go, which is the most important consideration to me. That it may have to be adjusted for interest rate changes, well yes I think that will be at a higher cost. But frankly, I'd take a 19% loan (short term) as the benefit will far outstrip even that elevated cost.

Frankly, due to the delay, depending on how it's reconstituted, they could almost pay for it out of accessible cash

Jrlomax; - "The first news we will here is that we’ve been paid the $151 million we are owed, along with cast iron guarantees around future payments"

Wow, someone is in la la land. From the whistle, it'll be at least 90 days until the first back payment, and probably a 3 year paydown

Thanks boogles; I just couldn't believe I'd read that right as it's a mind boggling amount compared to the current mkt cap!

Agricore; thoakbloke piece - the potential value of the 2.5% royalty - is that figure right? Surely that's in thousands not millions?

Falconer-flyer;

I wasn't referencing you, just referencing how un glamorous I find both extremes generally.

Specifically to you, I do note your encouragement to jpp that all is not lost, I'm merely trying to reinforce that.

Everyone has their own way of operating, but agree whole heartedly that research is the answer. And if you didn't do that at the first point, of investment, it is even more imperative that you do when sitting on a loss - was your original belief valid, is it valid today? And an acceptance that within a wider portfolio, some will lose, albeit insignificant within the wider context of your winners. We can only speculate jpp didn't, but as you say, we are here, Jpp et al, with regard to this particular stock to highlight that all is not lost.

Personally, when sitting on a chunky loss, I pretend I've never invested. Look at it as a new investment, and ask myself, would I invest; if not I sell, if not I hold tight, however long.

Good luck to you too Falconer, albeit patience is all that is required here.

Oh how I miss the posts of PUTUP and opulentia....they seem like the glory days of this board now.....