Member Info for dall01

I'm baffled by the reaction of the share price today. I would of expected a solid rise yet it has gone down.

I understand a lot may of been priced in already but surely announcing your first ever profits warrents a share price rise of some description.

Your not an idiot, I'm jealous. I wish I could too but I'm already at my limit.

If the price is still like this after the 16th March I may sell some Bango shares and join you.

Yes agreed Strangy, I am wondering how long this can go on for.

Should it be right that the value of a company can decrease by 25% and potentially 50% awaiting a Government decision that is past due?

I too have been patiently waiting for this opportunity and have topped up at 2.85 :-)

Are you blaming 2 people (or is it the same person?) for being able to ramp up a share price then make it drop by 30%??? err ok.
No one is posting because until there is news on the planning permission or from SAE. There is nothing to say.

And you know the saying "if you haven't got anything nice to say...."

The share price has dropped 1.6% in the last hour. If it hits my entry point, i'm out.

Ade, I agree, if wanted to invest in gold price I would do that directly , but for whatever reason value of the company is not being reflected here and I have no confidence that will for the foreseeable future. If it can't rise after such a great results release, when would it.

Such a good stock, such a disappointment.

Agreed Ade, I don't understand what's happening either. The results couldn't of been any better, increased profits, reduced debts, excellent dividend and already cheap price. Opens 4% and falls back?. Something is wrong here, I've no idea what though. Makes me wonder if investing is here is a good idea if excellent value is not going to be recognized.

Thanks Ade, wise words indeed. Let's see what next week brings.

I've just joined at 1430 because I think this is well oversold and i think next week's results will reverse alarming share price falls.

That said, market sentiment and a falling gold price is making me nervous.... have I just tried to catch a falling knife?

For the record, i'm a massive fan and have been invested in SAE for 18 months and hopefully for many years to come.

This board doesn't/shouldn't have any impact on the share price but it allows us to discuss all the drama. There's nothing sinister in that. :-)

Hi Chasable,

thanks for posting the link, I've just read the objection and frankly it made my head hurt. It seems to object on the following grounds. I've included my thoughts about them too.

1) It is counter to the stated objectives of Wales of reducing carbon emissions by 95% by 2050.
2) Pellets should be classed as a fossil fuel as they are derived from Oil based plastics
3) SUP emissions should be classed as new because old plant decommissioned in 2017 and
4) Increasing in emissions for this plant will require reductions in other areas to offset it
5) Air quality will be impacted by the new plant.
6) Emissions will have detrimental impact to health of Welsh residents and will be the equivalent to 68% of all Welsh road traffic.
7) Waste will need to be imported into Wales.

Point 1 is an issue but given all the steel , coal and other industries based in Wales, using this point to justify not progressing this plant pretty much kills the future off the future for the majority of Wales industrial economy and the thousands of jobs it supports. SUP is tiny in comparison.

Points 2-6 can all be dealt with by the fact that the emissions from the plant will be less than stated environmental guidelines on emissions and will be heavily monitored. SUP had the best emissions rating off all coal plants prior to decommission and the waste generated will reduce waste to 12% ash. Yes thats not 0% but you can't make matter disappear

Point 7 - Waste being imported to Wales is valid point but it solves a bigger problem that is that it is currently exported to other countries (Turkey, Indonesia) and dumped. This will stop that problem but the argument is basically not in our back yard Gov!

The rest is basically promotion for the circular economy which is a pretty bold statement for an organization with 4 people in it and a group of volunteers.

Its a well researched objection but if the Welsh govt uphold the objection how could any industrial project be progressed in Wales in the future? Its a case of ideals meeting the real world in my opinion.

Hi ST,

I read it in the Arden Research Paper on SIMEC from 17th July 2020 (page 20). Someone posted it here back then and it was such a good document that I've kept it as the basis for my SIMEC research. I've tried to find it online but I can't seem to locate it and you can't upload documents here or I'd share it. Looks like I may of misread the WasteNotEnergy figures though. If so, thats good for SIMEC.

Does anyone have a link to the Arden research paper they could share with ST? If not, I'll take a look in the SIMEC annual report documentation later and see if I can find it.

Simec need to provide contractual proof of closure for all 4 NPA sites to complete financial closure.

But agreed OHS, they only need to build 2 for phase1 and 2 for phase 2.

I've looked at the post and yes it does look like this WasteNotEnergy would be a direct competitor to NPA. Also the product they produce has the same fuel output but is 100% cheaper. (£2.1/MT vs £4/MT for NPA).
That said, NT are not selling their fuel to the open market. It is a JV based on vertical integration for the purposes of fueling SUP and not for commercial sale. Fuel security is a requirement of the SUP financial Close and I imagine the price difference is based on scale of production.
It does raise the question though, Why set up the NT production plants if they can just buy it cheaper on the open market.

My faith in the SIMEC business model is as solid as ever but WasteNotEnergy will make it easier for competitors to challenge SIMEC which is a little disappointing. ....

....One final thing, I believe NPA are looking for 4 sites not 2.

Also the there were a few other projects that got a name check. I have been researching them a little today.

Morlais in Anglesey - Seems a group of mainly American partners and local organizations which is at the consent stage.
Ptec - Isle of Wight project which uses German technology.

By contrast, it shows how much further along SAE is.

Yep. Portland also got a mention. Being from the area it reminded me that a potential project here was what peaked my interest in SAE over 18 months ago. Kind of got forgotten with all the SUP developments.
I re-checked the SAE website and it now says the Portland project is dependent on a CFD being in place. Understandable I guess. Need the govt to notice this sector and its potential.

Agreed, this is a great watch. So much detail about the Marine energy industry and governance

I dont understand the augment of wanting to sell because permit approvals are 3 months away? Financial close won't be until July at the earliest and then there is an 18 month build of the 1st powerplant to come after that.
This is a LONGTERM investment and getting upset and selling because an approval gets deferred by 3 weeks implies that you have not done your research properly, dont understand what you have read or you are only here for a short term trade.
There is always a risk that these investments don't work out. But I haven't seen anything that would indicate this is the case here yet. In fact the Welsh government should be investing in this project as it could be technology GB may wish to export to World in the future.

I'm feeling more and more confident that SO4 are going to go into production on the timelines they are currently communicating.
I'm having a hard time estimating what that might do to the share price though. Anyone else got any estimates/suggestions?

i'll go first...... I'm thinking it should reach at least 34p. That is that the last high point.

Has anyone invested in a company that has gone from construction to production before? What happened to the shareprice on go-live? Was there a noticeable jump?

I've been holding SAE since July 19 and this news is something to get excited about. Its an indication that a key milestone will be achieved (but its not their yet).
I've always been confident about the permits given that it use to be a coal PowerStation and the alternative to approving it is that it sits idol. Its in everyone's interest for it to be granted.
The key milestone has always been financial close and this has been moved to H2 from Q1 this year. Dependent on that is securing the 4 milling sites and SAE don't want to give any information that for commercial reasons. Basically the permit information is all where going to get before an avalanche of news leading to financial close well into the Summer. The fuel is the USP here, not the PowerStation.
I believe in what SAE are done and the believe SAE can deliver it. Just don't expect lots of news updates on a regular basis until the summer.