Member Info for Dalester

I think HMG may be keen to be seen to be doing "something" to mitigate the disaster of 2 years of the NHS being practically closed to 1000s of new cancer patients. The new BioNtech collaboration is not expected to bear fruit until 2030 so imagine their excitement if Lindy has pulled their tripes out of the mincer! They will be all over us like a rash.

Have Pfizer and BioNtech sorted out the Moderna lawsuit over the mRNA technology yet?
I'm not sure the UK Government should be getting involved whilst the IP is subject to a legal case
https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/clash-titans-moderna-sues-pfizer-and-biontech-patent-infringement

Google Finance showing it as a 400k buy...?

Following on from the National Geographic....I have had my guerilla marketing hat on and found a list of UK scientific journalists the other day, I am contemplating linking the Modi RNS to an email when it arrives, and sending it to those who are interested in biotech stories, always assuming it says what we think it might.
I am sure there must be journals, etc. in other countries that interested shareholders might want to make a note of too. Maybe some ot the more scientifically minded amongst us might prepare a "laymans translation " so that just about anyone might be able to understand the basic implications?
I imagine official press releases will hit the outlets that SCLP deem to be key, but there are thousands of places it won't touch, but a concerted effort by SHs might . Thoughts?

I think I would now prefer to wait until January for news. I think we have had a taster from the patient and the Prof's cancer vaccines comment, better now to hit the market with a massive RNS in January and then give the News and Media at large time to digest and recognise the magnitude of what we think is happening. Releasing news now will make it difficult for news channels to make as much of the news as it deserves, they will be able to give it their full attention in January, people will be back off holidays and available for interviews, the press and TV will be gagging for good news stories. All in all, I think it just makes better sense, we have had a little Santa Rally, lets enjoy Christmas and New Year and then we will all be ready for the medical earthquake.... As ever, fingers crossed....

I reckon he found a very cute way to send a signal to those who know without crossing any boundaries, certainly his comments will not mean anything to those who are not in the know. He is clearly delighted that there is hope for his patients after all the years of long drawn out defeats and disappointments. What did the Mm person say? A real buzz around the place? I think we know why ....

I think there are lots who will sell down some of their holdings to cover extra Christmas extravagances, an expensive cruise, a new car , a trip to see relatives abroad. My comment about January bills was aimed more at that sort of stuff than the gas bill, huge though it may be or the mortgage which may equally be much bigger.
There are 80% of customers at Lloyds bank with less than £500 in their accounts not withstanding savings elsewhere, I think 99% of the population is probably keeping a closer eye on their finances at the moment.
This from June this year... "Mr Nunn, who took over as the chief executive of the UK’s biggest high street bank Lloyds last August, said it was possible for the country to avoid the recession many have predicted.
He told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “Eighty per cent of individuals and UK customers and families have less than £500 pounds worth of savings in their current account and their savings account.”
https://inews.co.uk/news/business/lloyds-bank-customers-under-500-savings-demand-debt-services-1727555

To be honest, this is about the worst time possible for news to be imminent, the markets are flat, people are spooked by the economic outlook and Christmas is upon us. If news lands now, it will probably have a diluted effect compared to what might happen if we were in quieter waters. People are withdrawing profits from lots of shares even ones like this where news is just around the corner. Not that there are many shares that have the prospect of news that will echo around the globe. But a profit is a profit and if you are not habitually a long term holder, the basics don't matter as much as paying next months bills.

So, 5 years.. 60+ months for Keytruda to maximise their sales before half of China and India start manufacturing it and their sales start to fall off a cliff . Question is, how long would it take to build a new, better, drug with a relatively long lifespan, on a new , well patented platform , no me-too competition and perhaps even able to replace most of the competition? Do Merck go fishing now or do they hope something will emerge from their R&D in the next 2 or 3 years? Their problem increases with every month that passes. The results of the Modi1 trial, if conclusively good, will be a gunshot starting the race with billions of dollars of sales staring down the gun barrel.

Written 5 years ago 2017, predicting 5 years ahead, how accurate this prediction is would be an interesting read but IIRC Keytruda is now doing the amount in sales quarterly that was predicted as an annual sales figure. The market is clearly growing very rapidly, perhaps offering an opportunity for a breakthrough drug to capture a large market share at an accelerated rate?

I thought I would look back at the Juno deal, it makes interesting reading .....
https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/celgene-confirms-9bn-juno-buyout-sees-3bn-sales-for-jcar017

I didn't realise this Government knew they could spend any less than a Billion on anything........

I think that the cat has escaped from the bag and that frankly there isn't much point in worrying about how or why,. Trish has shared her good news with her online friends who frankly need to hear it. its probably the best news many of them have had in a long time and their spirits and hopes will have been raised. We know more about what the expectation was from a clinical standpoint than probably Trish did, our leaps of faith were financial, hers was existential . I salute her bravery and thank her for her ongoing updates in what must be an avalanche of emotions right now. Imagine how she will feel if some of her online friends benefit too and that the effect is long-lasting. And the satisfaction many here will feel at having put some mere money into what began as an idea in Lindy's head and may turn out to be one of the biggest healthcare breakthroughs since Penicillin.

I wonder if doctors at these new centres that have opened are talking to each other and buying a few shares? If what they are seeing is remarkable , you would , wouldn't you?

https://www.uptodate.com/contents/epidemiology-and-risk-factors-for-head-and-neck-cancer
EPIDEMIOLOGY
Worldwide, head and neck cancer accounts for approximately 900,000 cases and over 400,000 deaths annually [1]. In the United States, head and neck cancer accounts for 3 percent of malignancies, with approximately 66,000 cases annually and 15,000 deaths [2]. In Europe, there were approximately 250,000 cases (an estimated 4 percent of the cancer incidence) and 63,500 deaths in 2012 [3].
Males are affected significantly more than females, with a ratio ranging from 2:1 to 4:1. The incidence rate in males exceeds 20 per 100,000 in regions of France, Hong Kong, the Indian subcontinent, Central and Eastern Europe, Spain, Italy, and Brazil, and among African Americans in the United States. Mouth and tongue cancers are more common in the Indian subcontinent, nasopharyngeal cancer is more common in Hong Kong, and pharyngeal and/or laryngeal cancers are more common in other populations; these factors contribute disproportionately to the overall cancer burden in these Asian countries.... I will leave others to figure out the value per share of 300,000 courses of treatment @ say £10-20K per patient or more, but its a lot more than £1

I think its worth remembering that Redmile is a major investor in Pharma companies, they have a decent reputation to uphold for getting the best for their investors. If they had a reputation for forcing companies to sell at lowball numbers, they wouldn't have been as welcome at Scancell or many of their other investments. They know what innovative solutions to intractable problems are worth and they know which companies have the deep pockets required to buy those solutions and ensure they are ultimately brought to market, they are rubbing shoulders with them on a daily basis. They have the same objectives as most of us and have long experience doing the sort of deals we want and expect. Who knows , they may be lining up suitors as we speak, maybe the beauty parade is already under way. These people are tuned in to the US Pharma and its wants and needs , they fully understand what products like ours may be worth if they work as expected and will want the best deal available because they also know how desperate the US health insurance companies are to cut the costs associated with lengthy cancer treatments so many of which will ultimately end up as payments of death benefits too. Its not just the "cure" that they will be looking at but also the long term savings for families, workplaces, hospitals and insurers. The Billions paid for Keytruda and the rest is just the tip of the iceberg of costs associated with these awful diseases.

Hmmm, another overseas trip.. well, the last one seemed to go OK. I wonder who they will be talking to this time?

Well said Ray, I said at the time we should forget trying to get FDA permissions. A large slice of the FDAs income comes directly from big pharma. I think we too often imagine the USA is a benevolent friend and ally, it isnt, its a ruthless competitor that allows its companies and organisations to simply run over other " foreign" competitors by any means at hand including " bribing" the FDA with the threat of loss of " donations". Make no mistake the US is a huge market, but it is also a graveyard of British corporate failures. If they cant beat you or buy you they will tie you up in BS legal cases for decades.

Google reported what looked like an 839k buy at 17p at 10.09 this morning....maybe they have been working it all day

There have been collaborations on the Mabs and Avidimab going on for 3 years now assuming Genmab was one of the first, they should have a pretty good idea about what they think they can do with it by now, hence 3 products at £200m apiece plus a royalty. The collaboration with Biontech has been underway for 4 years or so without anyone saying its not working.... the genmab deal will have the effect of putting other companies on notice that the window to make some sort of low- ball deal is closing if not already closed and prices are rising as our requirement for cash falls away. Similarly anyone wanting to buy the whole company will pay more as more ( perhaps other Mabs) deals to underwrite the business are done. We are in an excellent position to maximise the value of our research.