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Am I correct in thinking that there is now legislation in the US that permits experimental vax etc to be given to people who have run out of alternatives. If so, if Modi starts to produce results in the sort of timeframes that many here think it might, there may be an opportunity to get it to people in the US earlier than would otherwise be the case?
Link to article on Maxwell
http://www.scottishenergynews.com/aberdeen-based-arenite-petroleum-discovers-huge-new-n-sea-gas-field-off-scarborough/
According to the Medical Care Costs Associated with Cancer Survivorship in the United States article, published in the journal Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention (1). National costs for cancer care were estimated to be $190.2 billion in 2015. Assuming constant future costs, we project costs to be $208.9 billion in 2020 (2020 U.S. dollars), an increase of 10 percent that is only due to the aging and growth of the U.S. population. the average cost of cancer care in the US is around $150k per patient, In the UK we spend roughly £16Bn per year
Modtope targets, number of US patients per year:
TNBC - 68,000 per year
Ovarian 21,000 per year
Head and neck 67,000 per year
Renal, 65,000 per year
Roughly 220,000 patients per year. costing about $33Bn per year to treat, and rising 10% per year
This is a huge market for Modi. You can only imagine the pressure from US insurance companies to get it into these patients would immense. If it works as predicted (and it is an IF, I know) would $50k , $60k or more per patient be unreasonable? Would $150,000 be unreasonable? And why is the Royalty suggested so low? Accepted the costs of taking these products through P3 trials would be large, but as nothing compared to the annual potential earnings.
Better to sell one of the platforms. Immunobody maybe and use the money to do our own P3 trials, no licencing thereafter, just sales!
I logged in this morning at dot on 8.00 the Bid/ Ask flickered and briefly showed 10.50 on the bid , almost as if it was pre-determined. And now here we are! Was it some sort of early tip off for someone? Does the site have premonitions? The price didnt go to 10.50 on the Bid for another nearly 3 hours.
We are not being helped by the lack of a red dot.
I agree that the science is great but like the everlasting lightbulb it needs to get to market and make some money. They cant expect to keep issuing more and more shares to keep the science running , at some point one of the chicks needs to leave the nest and bring home some bacon. I have my fingers crossed that this is the start of the news flow that seems inevitable,
but there is the nagging doubt in a corner of my mind that I will be disappointed. Too many false dawns but I still hang on in the belief that the sun has to shine eventually. I probably need my head examined. This year Rodney, this year.
I think perhaps we should concentrate on what we do know rather than worrying about things we dont know.
We have been told they are expecting faster take up in SA , we know the Scib trial is under way and that the Modi trial is in the works. We know the world needs Covidity or something similar but what else kills covid AND ramps up T cell response? There are some general timelines that we know about but its the uncertainty of no firm dates that is creating some of the SP problems at the moment along with a great deal of market uncertainty.
Then the guessing starts, Why didnt Diggle dabble? How many are now in the SA trial? What's happening with modi? ... go back pre- Redmile and ask youselves if the current situation would seem such a terrible place to be back then ?
My view is that there is an expectation that all this development work must result in deals at some point , am prepared to be patient. When deal news breaks as I believe it will, the tension here will be long forgotten , till then ..zzzzzz
So 17371 people died " from " covid, the rest died from covid plus other health problems. We spent half a Trillion Pounds, over 3 years of NHS budgets on a host of maily futile measures. The £ 4.5Bn that may have been defrauded is less the 1%, a drop in an ocean of wasted money. The average age of people who died was 82.5 and those 17,371 " from covid" deaths cost about £29 million each! Male life expectancy fell by 7 weeks. Female life expectance rose by 3 days!
Well said Chester, i have been running this scenario in my head for a few days now and have concluded that Covidity , if it works against existing coronaviruses and future varients,will still be needed. There are still billions who need to be jabbed and perhaps as important millions more who will want to be jabbed especially if there is a lengthy period between initial jab and the requirement for a further top up. No one wants to ever go back into more years like the last two, so the opportunity to put a permanent end to Coronaviruses will be too good to refuse for individuals and governments. If this vaccine also validates Scancells approach and ability to develop hard-to-create solutions to difficult problems, so much the better for shareholders.
“brings the long-term utility of spike-only based vaccines into question”
https://mobile.twitter.com/andrewbostom/status/1480610976470810632
Good thinking Ray, I have been saying for what feels like years, that the secret to successful licencing is slicing and dicing as many ways as possible, by product group, target market, territory, term etc. The kiss of death is to grant a single world-wide exclusive licence as then you end up on the receiving end of the speed and financial decisions of a single entity who may decide to put your products down the queue for marketing spend, extra clinical trials etc. in preference to others and there isn't a lot you can do about it. Stay in control, don't put all the eggs in a single basket....
Equally, how much is it worth to a Government to have a long lasting and completer solution to the problem irrespective of what others choose to do, Simply to get the country running normally is worth £50Bn if Track and Trace had £30+Bn thrown at it.
https://amp.9news.com.au/article/8ac88fae-517f-41ad-ba77-5433429dbd54
I hope they can put together a really savvy deal based on initial up front payments and ongoing royalties with targets and underperformance payments to stop someone buying in and then leaving it on a shelf to protect an inferior product. Slice and dice the products into separate deals maybe even with more than one company would be my preferred method of protecting future royalties which will fund further developments and hopefully some dividends in the future. Its vital to get a deal like this right as so much else depends on it.