Member Info for cyan2

The funders of the litigation on a no win no fee basis have risk assessed the case and obviously formed an opinion the chances of winning are very good.

I have assumed we will win . I have asked the logical 5 questions follow such a (presumptuous ?) assumption.

The critical points are how much and how long will it take to receive cash in our accounts?.

Of course we will see our funders take a rather large cut. That's all right and good because they could easily have spent $10m USD here already.

I may appear overly pessimistic Charlesw5267 but that comes from living through the years of 'bad luck' , missed targets to FID and questionable decisions made on behalf of us shareholders.

Its about time everything started falling into place for a change.

You raise an interesting possibility your point 4 ; "Once the award has been made with no avenues left to riggle out of it there are cash-rich companies that will RKH a reduced award immediately and wait for the payment to come through."

I would be interested to see any example in a multimillion dollar arbitration case where that has taken place.

I think most agree that receiving the cash from an OM award is now critical. At one time it could be considered a likely nice bonus.

Most , myself included at times , are guilty of writing like an OM win is all but certain. I have to constantly remind myself ; not to count ones chickens.

I will continue with the optimistic scenario; we have won the case. The questions that follow are straight forward;
1.how long will it take the arbitrators to announce?
2. Will they announce the compensation number at the same time as they announce the win?
(The much bigger, more complex Tethyan case had the win announced buy they then took MANY months to announce the number.)
3. Will the award be as big as some suggested?
4. Will the Italians pay up really quickly or, use delaying tactics?
5. Are we going to have to chase payment with enforcement through the courts and how long might that take?

I would welcome any case examples that other posters have found where settlement was quick.

MOGGER recently posted a very useful link on awards state compliance ;

hTTps://academic.oup.com/icsidreview/article/35/3/540/6135471#307539021

This is the relevant paragraph on Italy ( a lot of scrolling down to find this)

"Italy has thus far been unsuccessful in two of the 11 arbitrations against it. The two arbitrations CEF Energia v Italy and Greentech Energy Systems and Novenergia v Italy are both based on intra-EU BITs/ECT.258 It is not yet known whether Italy has honored the awards."

This line from the article suggests forcing compliance may take "an abundance of time." time we do not have.;

"The result is that enforcing against a State can be very difficult. It requires exceptional financial resources, specific expertise and an abundance of time."

Hence there really needs to be an agreement with the Italians which, imo, may require us to take a 'haircut' on the headline award to ensure fast payment. Lets hope the Italians will play ball.

Good evening Muchaboutmoney.

Your writing style and encouragement to others to ignore reasoned analysis is much in the style of Nigoil who trashed the ADVFN BB .

If anyone wants to argue what others write is 'nonsense' at least make an effort to argue why its 'nonsense'.

I hold a significant number of RKH shares and want the best. However, its important to analyse all information's and not bury ones head in the sand.
The CFO leaving giving up so many millions of cheap options;, including at 1p !!! does make ME suspect, at the very least, HE may not see a very high RKH sp anytime soon. It makes ME suspect that he may have a good idea that a significant fund raise may be required much sooner than many think.

If you have a really good read of the company's results you will note we have circa $15m of decommissioning liabilities. We have two Italian gas assets in serious decline. Worse than that; the half year results shows we have been losing money;

In the half years results RKH reported the 6 months income from gas sales was $347,000 USD.
Unfortunately , the COST of those sales was $571,000 USD.

The situation with CIVITA is approaching, if not at, terminal production. We tried to offload the CIVITA junk to Northern Petroleum in 2017 by offering to PAY THEM $1.7 m USD because there was decommissioning liability. I believe NOP had dreams of exploiting the acreage but the deal fell through. Its important to note that NOP CEO stated at the time CIVITA had FIVE or so years production left.
Well here we are; 5 years on and the accounts shows us losing money. It will cost several million to decommission. Note that RKH have very recently stated they are looking at ways of disposing of the Italian gas 'assets'. I do not see a nil cost way of doing that.
The other gas asset is in serious decline too. If the majority operator asks for cash for works to up production and/or manage decline , or even worse, decommission; then RKH is in a right pickle.

The other question is ; now HBR are going out the door , just how much are we going to have to pay to keep SL project alive until Navitas HOPEFULLY takes on costs? The historic costs were stupidly expensive. Remember how we had to pay $19.3m for one year , 40% interest, to cover pre-development costs.

I am sure costs will be kept to a minimum now but $5m will not last long. Remember this too; RKH will want to prepare accounts and state the company IS a going concern and has capital for anticipated costs for the next 12 months.
A cash injection is needed soon.
We have to hope that the OM award is in our favour, in a reasonable sum and not too far away. Prompt settlement is really a must.
The investment case has improved from what it was with POO's strength , the HOT with Navitas and the dismissal of the Italians last throw of the dice jurisdiction argument .

We are not out of the woods yet; lets hope for a favourable OM award very soon.

Drilling in 2023 with luck. Its a bit of a no-brainer as the Taiwanese are farming in giving us an effective free carry.

They are keen and I can see why. Have a read of this presentation and note the oil seeps.

hTTps://genelenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/genel-somaliland-aow-presentation.pdf

Good afternoon pauldrayton

Over 10 years ago , Dr. Pierre Jungels ,when questioned about RKH's Johnson gas discovery said;

"We will need 5 TCF before it is commercial and it would require either a FLNG/LNG plant on the island – neither of which are considered at the moment. "

The costs are astronomical; BILLIONs. Not going to happen now, imo

2012 CPR here has quite a bit on Johnson

hTTps://rockhopperexploration.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/2012-CPR.pdf

p 88 and 89 give some possible volume numbers and just how much may be in Rkh block.

Does not appear enough to justify the eye watering costs. Our management do not now talk about Johnson for good reason.

Raising the finance for a far cheaper SeaLion development is going to be enough of a challenge, imo.

Good morning Mirasol and a happy Christmas to you and everyone else.

You wrote "The oil price had been on its knees since 2014"

I respectfully disagree. 2018 POO averaged $71 and PMO's Robin Rose indicated at the start of that year that Sealion sanction was targeted for that years end. Rkh share price went to circa 40p.

We were let down, AGAIN, by poor PMO management who dumped even larger pre-development bills on us. They jumped to a ridiculous $19.3 m dollars; and we had only 40% of the costs.
It appears financial controls were very lax. How could we have been ready to sanction in 2018 but costs then ballooned and we get a one year bill for $19.3m.
It was those crazy bills that forced us to sell our useful Egyptian assets and trash our balance sheet. It took our management too long to fess up;

hTTps://secure.emincote.com/client/rockhopper/retail-investor-presentation/index.html

about 23 minutes in MOODY says "..if we'd not sold Egypt when we did we might well have run out of money..."

On the bright side ; things are looking better than they were for SL's development. We must get a decent OM award to stand a chance of making it to first oil without a fund raise because our cash position is very weak.

Good afternoon Muchaboutmoney
You wrote;

"They'll pay and fast .."

I hope they pay fast, BUT , look at CNE who won their arbitration exactly one year ago; still awaiting settlement. They initiated action against Air India in their pursuit of enforcement. Hopefully they will get their cash soon.

This article allegedly quotes Sam MOODY. Not sure I have heard him elsewhere quoting numbers;

hTTps://10isdsstories.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Rockhopper-vs-Italy.pdf

"We’ve initiated arbitration proceedings
to claim... at least all of the costs spent...
which is in the region of 40 to 50 million
dollars, but ideally (also) the profits, that
we would have made had we been able to
develop the field.... The lost profits might
easily add up to 200 or 300 million dollars."
SAM MOODY

Good afternoon simonpartridge1
You ask?
"How much is the total claim?"

Most commonly reported as 275 million EUROS PLUS interest (Edison research)
Elsewhere I have seen $325 m USD.
Recall "up to $350m USD" being quoted too.

Good afternoon lampedusa.

Thanks for the post;

Not sure what the KRG's spokesman is on about ;

"The Government will vigorously defend any claim that is brought by Genel, and intends to pursue its own counterclaims for damages resulting from Genel's renunciation of the PSCs," an official statement said.

It was the KRG who terminated the PSC's

KRG spokesman is making no sense at all.

"Please don't be facetious about this."

Was that addressed at me Ovets?

I have been perfectly respectful and applied cold logic to our position. We have only one interested party and that does not make for a great hand to negotiate with.

If any long term holder was so unhappy with the current boards negotiating skills they should have moved against the board years ago.

I have nothing further to add and will now await the OM decision.

Bring in a new negotiator ?
At what cost?
£100k £200K?
In my opinion that would be a waste of money. What would they be able to do?
We have only one possible partner at the moment and all the evidence suggests no-one else is interested in knocking on our door.
Our immediate future depends on an OM award and no negotiator can alter the outcome.

Good morning Ovets

you wrote ; "So who to bring in to make the difference?"

We might have about $6m left at this moment in time. I have tried to assess dispassionately IF a change of management now will significantly effect the 'end' result.

If you want a new top management it will take time and money to sort; we are in very short supply of both. Its too LATE.

By the time you've interviewed and attracted with a stunning remuneration package ( you get what you pay for), our fate will have been sealed by decisions entirely out of our hands.
Rkh has a weak hand now. To negotiate something great requires you to have an asset that people are queuing up to buy into.
Matters not who you have leading if what your trying to sell is not wanted.

We are left with just Navitas who MOODY stated remains ' very interested'. Without others interest to play off we are in a tricky position.

I agree with Surfit who wrote "I am against pulling any trigger until we see what the OM pay out and HBR exit strategy is."

If we do not win an OM award I think the game is up.

Good morning Glenrothes1969

You write about "... Resolutions to arrest cash bleed, preserve all assets, current and contingent..."

Generally laudable intent; BUT its far too late now.

There is minimal cash left and we need a focussed knowledgeable management on the crisis at hand. There is plenty to criticize but we have not the time or resources (cash) to attract a new COMPETANT team to replace.

If you want to install a new NED, please present a candidate and his qualifications. I do not want to see an unknown disruptive clown installed.
I agree ; we need to manage what little cash is left carefully BUT the activism will cost our company cash in legal fees and the circulation of documents as well as the new NED's expenses; if the resolutions pass.

Its not the time NOW.

The time MIGHT be right after we actually receive a large amount of cash from an award.

I am sure you are worried that management will look to spend elsewhere. I think we will be lucky to receive enough to see us to first oil. There will not be sufficient to 'splash out', imo, IF we win and get paid in good time.

As for keeping all assets. Is there any value any more paying licence fees to keep the legacy SFB blocks we acquired from FOGL?

I note that MOODY spoke about divesting the Italian gas assets. Fine, because they are toxic junk with large decommissioning liabilities. BUT; I do not see a nil cost way to do it.

Is there really a value in our 20% of declining Guendalina? CIVITA has a large negative value which became evident in the 2017 failed NOP deal ( RKH were going to PAY them to take it off our hands!)

I would be overjoyed if there was a NIL cost. I would like to know how MOODY thinks it can be done.

In my opinion there is absolutely nothing shareholders can do to turn this around. Our fate rests mostly on the decision made in the arbitration. Other critical decisions are to be made by HBR ( exit strategy) and Navitas ( will they stay; what terms)

I respectfully suggest you defer your activity for 6 months. There is no way for shareholders to change our outcome for the better now.

Who spotted the typo from RKH?

"At the fist hearing in February 2019, Italy sought to have the arbitration suspended on the grounds that intra EU disputes
should not be settled in international arbitration"

If it was only a 'fist' hearing it would have been over a lot quicker especially if we had Tyson Fury fighting our case.

Oh dear , you have to laugh or you would cry. Proof read before you publish in future guys; we've all been there!

We may hope against hope for the award to come before Xmas, BUT, our 30.9.21 contains a clue as to how long the panel takes;

"Italy has requested the Panel re-assess its view on jurisdiction

? At the fist hearing in February 2019, Italy sought to have the arbitration suspended on the grounds that intra EU disputes
should not be settled in international arbitration
? The Panel rejected this request in June 2019 as announced by the Company on 27 June 2019
? In late September 2021 the Italian Republic requested the Panel re-assess their previously delivered ruling on jurisdiction
based on c-741/19, Moldavia v. Komstroy LLC, a claim under the ECT relating to the provision of electricity from Ukraine to
Moldova. Neither the claimant nor respondent are EU members. The ruling included an indication that using things like
ICSID to settle intra EU disputes was in contravention of EU law
? The Panel asked for both sides to comment on this new material – Rockhopper legal advisers to make submission by 6
October 2021"

Look at how many months they took to throw out the initial 2019 request to dismiss on grounds of jurisdiction .

Surely this reassessment should not take that long again? Time is precious.

Good afternoon Glenrothers1969

"The world would look very different in 3 - 6 months."

The question is; will RKH is still be 'in business' in 6 months time? If we are, great!
Will have meant we received a really big OM at the very least.

At the end of June we had only $7.1m left

By years end we will be lucky to have $5m; probably less.

Not a good place to be.

On page 5 of the 30.9.21 presentation are these bullet points;

"Financial
? Should Harbour exit the Falklands then the commercial arrangements disclosed on 7 January 2020 will fall away
? Rockhopper is in discussion with Navitas regarding its future involvement and funding contribution
? Possible impact on deferred capital gains tax liability relating to the 2012 farm out to Premier Oil
? Certain project wind down and decommissioning costs shared between Rockhopper and Harbour on a 40:60 basis
? The main item relates to a temporary dock facility in Stanley installed for the 2014 drilling campaign
? The exact cost and timing of this are yet to be determined"

RKH has liabilities coming out of its ears;

Yet ANOTHER FIG historic tax bill of unknown size expected ( excludes the arguable circa $50m CGT bill which could not pay anyway)
At least $13.561 Million of decommissioning liabilities on our junk Italian "assets"
An unknown but believed large decom bill for the dock.

We MUST receive a LARGE award from OM or hope that Naviats will assist us financially; but how likely is that they will be generous?

Do they need to help when we could collapse and they step in to to pick up the pieces at their leisure.?

Good afternoon fecm

Have to say that the shareholder campaign is FAR too late and will not make any difference to our fate. Whoever is in charge; whoever is putting their two pennyworth in; the facts are stark; our fate is no longer in managements hands.

We are running out of time and money FAST and belated shareholder activism will not help now, may actually hinder and delay.

Its all about HBR's exit strategy , OM and Navitas plans now; others decisions.
We have few cards to play.

In the end; everything could fall into Navitas hands at huge cost to RKH shareholders.

This was the warning in the 30th September 2021 presentation, page 3;

https://rockhopperexploration.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/RKH-Retail-investor-presentation-September-2021-Final.pdf

"? Operatorship will mean spend
? Likely eventual transfer of Operatorship to Rockhopper
? Decommissioning costs
? Pushing the project forward – hopefully with Navitas involved"

That appears to be the 'likely' scenario MOODY expects. Trouble is; we are now running on vapours. We have not got the cash we NEED.
After careful reflection; a fund raise will, imo, have to be announced as soon as we , hopefully, receive notice of a winning award.

The trouble is; when will we get an award announcement? Everything with the tribunal seems to run at a snails pace.
We MUST get the result before the year end.

Getting hold of the cash is another difficult issue.

If we have NOT won the arbitration; imo, RKH is no longer a going concern.

Then raising the necessary funds from an equity issue is the nightmare scenario. I do not think it could be done.