The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Like all of us, I sometimes despair (contemplate cashing out for a reasonable % return but an insignificant profit). However the fundamentals remain really solid. Terry Smith famously observed that sometimes the fundamentals and the share price are at odds - but it's not the fundamentals that change in order to correlate to the share price.
I think the delays in the Chad/Cameroun closure, combined with West African uncertainty, poor IR comms and and an impatient PI base, are holding down the shares. I don't see any great sign of the IIs bailing out and limited liquidity makes us vulnerable to the impact of relatively small transactions.
I am in now way 'talking my own book' here - but I am buying (OK - Full Disclosure; not in exactly monumental volumes) every time the SP drops below 30p.
Like many much wiser observers, Zengas, Trek, Shore Capital et al included, I am entirely confident of the SP reaching 80p+ (and maybe £1.00+) within a year.
If I'm right (and of course DYOR) on an FD valuation basis, even for those with an average of anywhere sub 25p, that is something well worth holding on for.
https://medium.com/@annsmajstrla/yes-you-should-pay-for-the-news-heres-why-53da34fdf444
No - it does not.
Cavendish Fiduciary Jersey Limited is the EBT vehicle and so you would not necessarily expect it to add more in a placing.
*proprietary
Cavendish Fiduciary Jersey Limited typically manage Employee Benefit Trusts, so these are likley to be propriatary transactions within the EBT.
I don't really have a dog in the particualr squabble that's going on, but I do wonder, Mr Dusterinmong, if you need to check your medication. I'm genuinely concerned for your state of mind so please do take care of yourself.
All the best
I am a very occasional poster to, but avid reader of, this board - not least of the wise and thoughtful contributions by, amongst others, Agadem and Zengas. I also have more than £150k at risk and underwater in this stock, so please don't (as some have) accuse me of being a malicious or disingenuous poster.
But I am getting concerned about the deadline for re-admission and the impact on our held value if that re-admission is not completed within 6 months of suspension. Does anyone definitively know what happens if the six month deadline is missed? Can it be extended, what would happen to the value (albeit that they are not tradeable) if the stock is delisted?
Journalists need to pay their mortgages too you know...
I'm sure that it says somewhere in the Admission document that there are restrictions on dividends until the Accugas loan facility is fully repaid.
None of which reduces the value of the assets, just the recognition of that value in the SP.
I think that Accugas does produce lots of cash, but it's not 'Free' cash flow in the normal sense as the banks won't allow it it to flow anywhere until the Accugas debt payments are cleared. So Niger investment, Plc dividends or share buybacks are off the table until the Accugas debt is rescheduled (or settled).
After months of watching I have now taken a position with most of this year's ISA. I agree with all the posts about the undervaluation, but I think I now understand why (although at some point it will cease to be a problem and the real value will be unlocked).
The Accugas business generates lots of cash (albeit paid late and even then only in Naira) which is what the stated FCF number is based on. But the local banks that provided the expensive legacy debt for Accugas have the first call on that cash, and so the revenue generated from gas sales does reduce debt (which is good) but does not flow out of Nigeria (which is bad - for dividends , buy-backs or money for further Niger investment). So I don't believe that the FCF is genuinely 'free' at the Plc level and that's whats capping enthusiasm.
But with a good cash-flow and debt service history from solid GSAs it will surely be possible to re-finance the Accugas debt at a better rate, over a longer term and with fewer restrictions on distribution. That will free up cash for everything else. So at these current valuations I am a strong buyer, but with the expectation that revaluation will only follow when the debt is renegotiated, and that requires discipline in the meantime.
Can somebody ask about converting all the Naira receipts into US$ - specifically to find out if the Company is current with US$ payments to lenders. My concern is that if there really are those enormous cash balances in US$ then why is the company so delinquent in paying US$ liabilities and trade creditors. The payment delays reported to credit agencies are terrible.
Thank you to all those who took the time and trouble to share their views on this question. A brilliant board/resource.
I have been watching this company (and this board) for what seems like ages and have been incredibly impressed with the quality of posts, so a big thank you to all those who have kept everyone so well informed.
Like so many of you I can't understand why the market values SAVE so low (Market Cap way below NAV and with visible and predictable earnings). That has made me nervous about jumping in, even at this SP. What does the market know that we don't?
I guess my only question, and someone may already have answered this so please be gentle to a newbie if they have, is how much of the reported cash at bank and receivables is actually in US$. The gas contracts are priced in US$, the company reports in US$ (using declared forex rates) and its debt and major capex costs are all in US$. But my understanding is that Accugas is mainly paid for gas in Naira which can be really hard to convert to US$ because of the weak economy and the central bank rules. That could cause real liquidity problems. Does anyone have a view on this?