Member Info for CuriousCat9

I’m another one of those in the quietly confident camp with a sizeable holding (for me) to match, but I have to concede that after the Rudyard announcement I would have expected a SP in the 40s at this stage, especially after Monday’s RNS.

The drill will very shortly decide things either way, but with a good chance of a very big win in prospect at Ingomar supported by a safety net in the form of ‘low-risk’ Rudyard which could plausibly justify the current SP on its own, right now the enormous potential at Ingomar essentially comes free. I don’t think HEX is a particularly difficult share to understand and given the lack of TR1s I suspect the influence of a single major background seller such as Oberon may have been overstated, so the persistence of this apparently obvious market mispricing is a bit of a head-scratcher for me.

With helium shows in the strata above I would have thought the announcement of further helium shows at our primary target of Flathead in the next RNS is pretty much a given now so shouldn’t logically have a dramatic impact on the SP, but if a tipping point is approaching it often doesn't take very much to trigger a sudden shift in market sentiment.

Currently 19% for HEX vs. 38% for HE1 over the last 5 days

Yeah, Amsden looks pretty much nailed on for me, but given that we already knew there was a trap and seal sufficient to contain helium from the helium anomaly detected in the soil sample taken at the site of the Hillison well head then I think Monday's RNS just confirmed what we knew already.

The problem I think is that the total volume of gas in the Amsden formation is significantly smaller than in the Flathead and Charles formations beneath so if only Amsden were to prove commercially viable, helium concentrations turn out to be towards the lower end and the reservoir is completely isolated from the reservoirs below then I don't think the market would be terribly impressed. Everyone naturally wants to talk about the two extremes of complete success or complete failure but given for example that the Froze well which penetrated Charles was completely dead after about 20 minutes then the damp squib scenario outlined in my previous sentence is a distinct possibility.

That said, given that our chances of hitting the jackpot here may be as high as 50% and failure at our primary and secondary targets should still mean commercial production on a smaller scale at Rudyard and Amsden too if helium concentrations permit, quite why the SP continues to behave more like radon than helium is a puzzle to me...

Morning Lord.

Not that I have any sector experience, but my understanding is that today's news confirms we have a trap and seal at Charles and Amsden (though I think we already knew this to be the case at Amsden). Using the table from the Ryder Scott report on page 107 of the admission document and adjusting the 'trap and seal' and 'timing and migration' probabilities to 1, this would mean the Pg for Amsden jumps from 0.42 to 1 and for Charles from 0.29 to 0.6. We don't know if there's a trap and seal at Flathead yet but the probability here can nevertheless be upgraded to 0.49 as timing and migration would seem to have been proven by the results from the formations above.

Obviously concentrations and flow rates still need to be demonstrated however.

Fair enough if you'd rather keep your cards close to your chest on this one Trek, but do you anticipate any obvious moments to trade Hex on news over the next few weeks or will everything just happen too quickly?

Just noticed that unlike my Polymetal shares which are still shown at the price they were when delisted, my Evraz shares in my AJ Bell ISA are now showing as being worth 0. Has anything changed in the last few days or is this just something to do with AJ Bell?

We’ve not had any bad news since the IPO and nothing in the original timeline has changed so for those of us who’d already resolved to hold through the drill (in my case since the Rudyard acquisition announcement), the present SP weakness doesn’t really change anything beyond making us all a bit more nervous in the interim!

Ultimately though we know there’s almost certainly helium in the Amsden formation and that the flow rates are good so the only thing still to be determined to make Ingomar commercially viable is whether the concentration is above 0.5%. The problem I think is more that the gas volume in the Amsden formation is relatively small compared to the Charles and Flathead formations beneath so we may also need success at one or both of these for Ingomar to be not just commercially viable but to turn HEX into the multibagger we all hope but the drills here would seem to be much more speculative.

Hi TheInvestCollect

Could I ask if you learned anything new from DM during your conversation?

It’s a pity we don’t appear to have a geologist among us as it would be very interesting to hear their opinion on Ingomar and Rudyard. Even just knowing they're invested would be a reassurance of sorts!

Hi all. Not a holder of ALGW at the moment as I'm still in the early stages of researching the company. I can see it's rapidly growing its AUM, looks to have a healthy balance sheet and yet the SP has been broadly stagnant for some time so hopefully on the edge of a rerate, but I'm not clear yet what is as that ALGW does differently or better than its peers. Also, is it expected that ALGW can continue to grow its AUM indefinitely or should we anticipate a consolidation phase or natural size limit to the company?

Ryder Scott assigned values of 0.6 and 0.7 to the respective probabilities of helium having migrated up from the rocks below to the Amsden formation and the existence of a trap and seal to keep it in place, but assuming Bo's 'highest ever' helium geochem readings in the soil around the site of the Hillison well which penetrated the Amsden formation and discovered good gas pressures were indeed due to helium escaping at the time of the drill (and I'm not aware of any other possible explanations), arguably these should both have been assigned values closer to 1 which would make the COS for the Amsden formation a lot higher than 42%... closer to 100% in fact. Any thoughts??

First we had Jesus and now apparently we have St Paul!

Reassuring on the face of it just how confident and excited Mr Minchin seemed during Tuesday's presentation, but is this just his Tiggerish nature?? I've never been an investor in HE1 so I was just wondering if anyone remembers how he used to come across presenting for HE1?

Hi SuperRoty

I also bought in sub 11p originally planning to derisk later on, but do you not think the Rudyard acquisition has radically altered the risk profile of HEX? Once I'd had time to digest the implications I actually opted to double my holding here as more important to me than the potential value of the new asset I think anyone willing to take a punt on Ingomar as a binary play is now doing so with a safety net underneath.

Charting at its most primitive, but since the IPO the share price has gone up in three little steps, the peaks of which can very nearly be joined by a straight line (and may also be getting closer together). The next little step up on the ladder should hopefully therefore come within the next couple of weeks and get us to 30p... but we'll see!

I know news of further government funding (I believe EEE have already received some grants for drilling) or a joint venture with a larger player could perhaps come at any time, but with a growing team to pay and the cost of the eventual pilot plant fast approaching on the horizon I wonder if what’s holding the SP down is simply that the market anticipates a a series of imminent dilutions.

Admittedly, I’ve only been following and invested in EEE for about a month, but it seems to me that the news of the weathered cap substantially increased the likelihood of a viable commercial operation so the underwhelming SP response perhaps suggests that the market’s waiting not so much for greater clarity on the processing route as greater clarity on where the funding’s going to come from.

Apologies if I’m stating the obvious but just trying to decide whether it’s smarter to top up at these apparently low prices or to follow the mood of the market on this occasion and hold fire for a few months for fear of nasty surprises.

Nothing particularly remarkable going on looking at the trades, but the SP has been making some biggish jumps back and forth over the last hour or two and I seem to remember a similar pattern immediately before we first broke out from 10.5p. Might be just wishful thinking on my part but maybe the big seller has finally cleared his holding and we’re about to get going again...

Oldapache, if there's obviously an ulterior motive then fine, but jumping on anyone who posts anything that might be perceived as even slightly negative just reduces the amount of information available to investors that might help them make informed decisions.

Oak Securities work for HEX so we need to take their price target with a pinch of salt. There’s also less money in the market now compared to when HE1 was at a similar stage as well as more helium plays full stop. I do after all hold a number of AIM companies atm that look like screaming buys but the market thus far doesn’t agree so nothing new here for me!

Where I'd disagree with lordlolly however is that I don’t think a large holding in HEX is particularly risky until the results of the first drill and flow test which may not be for another 2 months or so. Even then, as Trek has noted, if the first drill at Ingomar is a failure that’s far from that as Rudyard would still be to come and HEX would then likely look to raise some more money for another go at Ingomar. Ultimately there's helium at Rudyard and almost certainly at Ingomar too but also likely disappointments and technical challenges to be overcome along the way, so of the various possible scenarios complete failure or complete success first time may well be the least likely.

Thanks Trek. All good points.

As it happens I only hold Hex because unlike your mate GreyGeorge I had a look at the company after seeing your tip over on the DEC forum a few weeks ago so will definitely owe you one if everything turns out as we all hope!

Hi Trek. Always look out for your contributions here and elsewhere, but couple of questions if I may:

Firstly, do you think some of the recent falls we've seen could be because the Rudyard acquisition has made Ingomar more risky as presumably the second drill would originally have been intended for Ingomar had the first not succeeded?

Secondly, should we be concerned at all by how little was paid for Rudyard? It seems a tremendous bargain on the face of it, but I guess it could also be that risks here are higher than supposed.