Member Info for CuriousCat9

Hi barnyards

How would you rate the probability of successful re-entry and the wellbore still being in good condition?

'Looks like I’ve become a car parent.'

The patter of tiny Fiats???

Thanks for that oldapache, but I've got about 300k here. I suggest we green box each other and leave it at that.

There’s a huge amount of experience and expertise in the US regarding drilling through shale and we can be certain this problem has been encountered many times before and fixes developed, but I must admit my impression during the presentation was that Bo and DM were talking about something with maybe only a 75-80% chance of success. I may be misremembering the quote slightly but DM’s comment about being ‘willing to have a pop at it’ didn’t exactly fill me with confidence!

One would suppose that NT wouldn’t submit to an extended interview like that if he didn’t think the merger was going to go through, but at the very least the timetable’s slipped somewhat. The June investor presentation set out the following:

July: Option exercised. Admission document published.

August: Voyager shareholder meeting. Merger completes

Q4 2024: Commence move to AIM. Legacy business disposed of.

Odd that the interview didn't touch on the progress of the merger at all??

My understanding is that the option to acquire M3 expires on Monday. Is it typical for the market to be updated only at the last minute in these situations or are things looking decidedly ominous?

'Across the pond, the U.S. Department of Energy recently granted $20 million to support 16 projects nationwide to advance white hydrogen projects as the energy could potentially produce zero carbon emissions'

Copied from the Charles Archer Blog 'White Geological Hydrogen Explained'

Ihavenoclue

DM said in an earlier interview that the presence of hydrogen alongside helium in Flathead could have suppressed the mass spectrometric mud flow readings of the latter so I was surprised there was no further mention of this given Bo clearly thinks very high helium mud flow readings really are significant. Flathead after all is believed to have 5 times the potential gas volumes of Amsden and unlike Charles where there's a significant question mark over the quality of the reservoir rock given the DST at Froze had very little flow and was dead in 20 minutes, Flathead has at least flowed in other locations.

Watched the presentation earlier. Would have liked some comment regarding how much we know or don’t know regarding helium in the Flathead and was hoping someone would ask a question about the fine print of the Rudyard deal given the seller was a consultant to the company and the consideration just a thousandth of the NPV, but overall I think it was mostly very positive.

Given the quality of the reservoir has already been confirmed by the earlier drill 200m away, the only thing separating Amsden from commerciality prior to the news of the collapsing Mowry shale had been the question of the concentration of the helium. My understanding of Bo’s comments today however is that should re-entry prove successful the magnitude of the helium shows recorded in the drilling mud are such that the Amsden section of Clink 1 will almost certainly prove commercial and that’s surely very significant.

Everything would therefore now seem to hinge on the question of re-entry and although I think Bo described the probability of success as first ‘high’ and then later ‘very high’, it’s clear however that the collapsing shale is more than just an annoying but fairly common and easily-resolved hitch given they’ve brought in three different consultants to advise. Those who sold out after the shale collapse RNS planning to wait until confirmation of successful re-entry before returning may well be rewarded for their caution.

It seems there are a number of companies in the USA looking for hydrogen but we might just have leap-frogged them all without even trying! Helium may be about 60 times more valuable, but if Ingomar’s hydrogen proves recoverable the very high concentrations anticipated should go some way towards bridging that gap.

In summary then, given the directors are apparently now confident they’re sitting on commercial helium, our absolute worse case scenario is 2.5-3 million dollars to drill a second well at Ingomar should Clink1 prove beyond repair. You’d have no clue looking at the SP, but the risks associated with HEX have dropped dramatically whilst the potential rewards have if anything increased. Given the pace of the news flow over the next couple of months it's not impossible we could have everything wrapped up in time for Christmas!

Possibly a technical question that none of us really have the expertise to answer, but should we expect draining the brine to increase the flow by multiples or just a bit? I ask as in the RNS of 27th June they originally estimated a payback on the 800k cost of each drill at Fort Dodge of around 6 months based on an assumption of 300mcf/day and helium concentrations of 4.6%. If 300mcf/day = 1.6 million dollars annually then our present flow rate at Rost of 47.1mcf/day would only work out at about 250k annually leading to a payback time of nearly 4 years (assuming a 10% annual decline rate), which is obviously quite a big difference as things stand.

Hi Trek

Very appreciative of your willingness to share your research and analysis both here and on the HEX board – thank you also fiscalrascal for your contributions below likewise - but I wonder if I could pick you up on one thing though please?

Given you think it ‘very likely this will go to a min 20m mcap’ it seems to me there’s a little bit of a mismatch between your huge positivity surrounding M3’s assets and prospects and the size of your holding in VOY.PL (I think you mentioned just 100k shares)… is the risk of the RTO failing to complete at this stage still so very high do you think?

Not looking forward to seeing what happens to the SP when the market opens but given the timing of the RNS is it possible they'd already managed to complete some or all of the wireline logging before the collapsing shale halted progress?

Thanks OrangeMoon!

Did she tell you she'd lost her sheep?

I believe I’m invested here and invested quite heavily indeed on the basis of sound reasoning, but despite having been here since April the timing of my top-ups since have been so inopportune that at 19p it’s possible that some people who’ve waltzed in and bought their first shares this week are now sitting on better averages than me, so inevitably I find myself wondering what else I might have got wrong!

Anyway, while we all wait for news with a mixture of confidence and terror, I don’t suppose someone could enlighten me please as to why the presence of hydrogen would be expected to suppress helium readings made through mass spectrometry? I’ve had a ridiculously busy week so only just catching up now, but my understanding is that whilst the mass to charge ratio of hydrogen ions can overlap with He3, I would have presumed we’re only really interested in He4 here as the former would only be expected to be present in absolutely minute amounts. In the case of He4 on the other hand interference I understand would require hydrocarbons to be present in the gas mixture which I don’t think we’re expecting in significant quantities. I’m guessing He4 is not normally measured directly but somehow inferred through He3 measurement?? Not doubting DM’s statement for a moment, just curious!

Ezhik

Probably 20 years ago now, but I remember seeing a dating advert in a local paper which began 'Head-on-a-stick man seeks head-on-a-stick woman' ...presumably whoever took down the details over the phone was not familiar with the word 'hedonistic'.

In fairness the last RNS covered both Amsden and Charles so although Flathead is our primary target waiting until they also have data for the Precambrian before releasing the next RNS would be consistent with their approach so far. One update approximately halfway through the drill, the next at the end of the drill in other words but we'll see.

Changing the subject a little, while we all nervously await the next update on the drill I just thought I’d suggest 3 reasons to be optimistic about HEX’s prospects more generally:

- The directors have committed not to sell any shares until one year has passed from the date of the IPO. They didn't have to do this so doing so must surely indicate confidence.

- Rudyard was acquired for the apparently minute consideration of 100k in cash and 150k in shares which equates to just 0.1% of the in-situ value of the contingent resource. Why such a low price if helium is as valuable and the site as low-risk as we’ve been led to believe? Why didn’t a rival with deeper pockets jump in and steal the deal? I think it's quite possible that Bo disclosed more to the seller about his plans and expectations for the company than has been disclosed publicly and in doing so was able to convince the seller that his or her 150k in shares had a very good chance of multiplying in value many times over (note that even 10 fold would still only be 1.5 million dollars!).

- In the Ryder Scott analysis in the admission document a helium find of 3.28% conc. is described but the site’s name has been kept confidential at HEX’s request which when combined with the fact that HEX was able to provide a gas analysis report to Ryder Scott would seem to suggest they have a significant interest in this well. Given that HEX at IPO raised enough money in principle for three drills could it be that they’re planning to announce a third project at Winnipeg perhaps in the 2 or 3-month lull between Ingomar finishing and Rudyard starting thereby ensuring a continuous positive news flow and continued SP momentum??

Interesting article Tiburn. In summary, the best way to find helium is to look for high concentrations of nitrogen as the latter is a prerequisite for the former. More interesting for me however is that the article also suggests the relative concentrations of helium and nitrogen are likely to be strongly correlated over the same geology which would mean a comparison with the reported nitrogen concs at known helium finds nearby might offer a clue as to what we should expect at Ingomar.

From the article:

'When the researchers applied the model to an example system (Williston Basin, North America) using expected nitrogen concentration values, the model predicted the observed nitrogen/helium proportions in real life'

Not true as evidenced by your post from the 16th August at 09:17:

'I used to be in copl and lost thousands. I never believed that it would go wrong'

Lets keep this about Hex please.