Member Info for CSDI1962

Thanks LTI for your comments.

Market cap is simply SP x No of shares.

Back in 2007 when SP was around 550p I am sure (cannot be certain) that market cap was over £40B. Similarly Halifax was around £50B, when SP was around £9-£10.
Since LLOY took over HBOS in 2009, the result is a combined business with market cap approx £31B - destruction of 2/3 the value by market cap. This is typical of numerous FTSE100 companies, which is why the index has failed to grow like the Dow Jones or Nasdaq for example.

I am aware that market cap and NAV of the business are completely separate.
The Net assets at 31/12/21 were approx £53B and we are currently valued at approx £31B by market cap, implying the market undervalues the bank by around 40% from its net assets. or should value the SP just above 75p (53B value/70B shares).

Cheers - C

Clearly the stock market does not reflect the assets of the business, but we can only buy/sell shares based on what Mr Market offers. Will Mr Market ever catch up, or will the bank's assets deteriorate ? If only we knew .....

Can only say it is very sad and disappointing to read most of the items posted here this week.
Is there any chance we can have some constructive discussions in future.
We are all entitled to a view, whether it be bullish or bearish. and there is every chance this share could go either way.
Let's cut out the crap and have some sensible discussions.

For my part I have a very small holding, having bought early last month allowed myself to get spooked and sold out at a loss on 15th March, thinking the FTSE index cancellation would mean I would not be able to sell after 21st.

Then when understood better took the plunge again buying a batch on 29th @ 332p and a smaller batch yesterday at 263p, with an all in average of approx 312p now.
My plan is to hold 2/3 of my shares and slicing them off at a target of £7 initially, then £10, and using 1/3 to trade (cost 263p) hoping for a short term £4 target and repurchase on any dip If I get lucky.

Good luck everyone - whichever way you play - long or short.

Cheers - CSDI (Crap Share Dealing Ideas)

Casapinos - for one who does not want go on about buybacks .....

I have stated several times that these seem to work far better over the pond - where SPs rise after buybacks - compared to the UK. The FTSE (100) has been a lame investment over the past 20-odd years compared to the US and most other overseas benchmark indices.

I'll say no more

good luck - we are all here for one purpose only - to make some money if we can.

Cheers - C

Yes it's a shock to the system. so many red days recently.

Since the day before invasion on 24th Feb, LLOY has managed to drop from 52.2p to where we are now - around 45p - a drop of 14%, excluding yesterday's divi.

Compare to the FTSE100 which was 7498 and now over 7600 it's a very bad performance when you factor in the reduction of shares via the Buyback too.

nothing new to the shareholders of the sluggish black horse, where patience is needed and tested.

GLA - C

Just very basic (free to view) charts on HL website and Investing.com. Used to prefer Digital look's charts but access to them has disappeared.
Tend to look at 6 month, 1 yr and 5 year overviews.
Nothing too technical for me I'm afraid.

One of the best in past was GSK - a regular buy below £14 and sell above £16 for many years.
But with their split coming up, not one for me anymore.

I am only trading very small amounts, so don't take too much notice of me.

cheers - CSDI (Crap Share Dealing Ideas)

Nice one Robleo

As mentioned in earlier posts it does look an attractive entry point.
I am holding my one little batch for now, and hoping to add when I have fresh funds available.
I've sold out of DLG today and added to LLOY, which is a similar play in many ways as PSN.
Both totally UK dependant and heavily reliant on mortgages. This is probably the better share for growth, as LLOY seems to be always struggling and has a lower divi. I've gone for LLOY mainly as a trading share as it seems to have a more defined trading range than this share.
If this gets back to the 52 week high, then you have near 50% upside, whereas LLOY offers about 25% upside.
Choices, choices.
Good luck - C

Hi Seaking

Oddly enough if you look at the last 3 ex divs, the SP has bounced straight back. When you consider the market/FTSE100 was down today, it was a surprise for LLOY to fall much less than the 1.33p divi. Note that it had given away more in the last 3 trading sessions though.
I've added a 3rd small batch today @ 44.6p + costs, to go with one on Monday at 47.25p + costs and one early in March at 42.5p + costs.
Plan is to trade two of the batches and hold one. Target prices are 10% above entry prices (incl costs). The recent chart shows a nice trading range of 45-50p, so hopefully that will continue in due course. If I can make roughly 10% two or three times this would be as good as a LTH hitting 60p - if all works out well.
GLA - C

Gavster

How long is a piece of string.
Margins have been very high in recent years, hence the profit and divi payouts.
no doubt forward selling prices will come under pressure, but they will pass on whatever they can via increased selling prices. While inflation will hit costs, I think the bigger question will be mortgage avialability for buyers as interest rate rises take affect.
The share price is down roughly 1/3 from the 52 week high, so some hit is already baked in. No doubt the SP can drop some more, but I reckon this is not a bad price to step on the ladder, esp ifyou can drip feed over a few months.
The next divi will hopefully be another 110p in the summer, but it may struggle to maintain the 235p divi totals next year, as earnings only just cover it at the moment.
Cheers & GL

It's after you get paid (19th May). Whatever the market price is then

Hi Mike

I know Rio Tinto have thrown off some huge "special divis" in the last year or so.
It seems to work for them - and no doubt they have a buyback program too.

I just wish companies would throw off more as special divis - but I am in the minority - especially when directors look at their own executive plans (sooo many free shares given to them) and want to line their own pockets first.

Just think of all the money over the years spent on this practice - and then look at the majority of UK Share prices.
Looking at the FTSE100 as a whole, the index is up less than 10% since 1999 - so much for share price growth.

Oops - better stop ranting - and get back to work

GLA - C

So just think if the £2B was paid to shareholders as a special divi.

With about 70B shares in issue, it equates to approx 2.85p per shares.
Give me an extra 2.85p special divi any time thank you - a return of approx 6% on current SP.

And every year they have surplus cash did the same !!

A bird in the hand ....

GLA - C

Lovely example Mike.

But instead of wasting £16K on buybacks, why not pay that out as a special divi ?
It would be an extra 8p per share = 320% of the basic 2.5p divi.

Give me 8p special divi every time, rather than a future posibility of an unknown benefit.

I rest my case your honour - and still expect to be found guilty of course !

GLA - C

I've bought in ISA with AJ Bell.
Sometimes there's no trade available but if you try again it works ok.

Cheers - CSDI

LTI

If only that would happen ..... we would be happy.

And that is why it is theory .... the reality is never as good - at least in the UK.
My understanding with shares over the pond is that they do react favourably to buy backs. I honestly believe it is a UK problem.

If you look at LLOY shares over the recent past few years it is not a pretty picture.

As I've said elsewhere, my aim is to trade between 45p and 50p to make gains of 10% a couple of times a year.
Long term investing invariably ends up going wrong (at least for me).

That's why I call myself CSDI - Crap Share Dealing Ideas.

Good luck - C

Gate

If they pay a special divi then I have got something tangible - money in my sky rocket.
If it goes on buybacks I get nothing, other than an illusion that my shares are worth more.
In reality the share value is determined by many things - the theory is good with buybacks - but the reailty is different.
If only the SP would reflect the true value of the company - as at 31/12/21 there was £53B approx in Net Assets, but the market cap is only approx 34B.
Cheers - C

Thanks DC - but do you believe it benefits you or not - Yes or No will do thanks.
Just trying to gauge overall opinion and I may well be in the minority.
Cheers - C

A simple question for all.

do you believe the current £2B share buyback benefits you as a shareholder ?

As you will all have gathered I believe not and would much prefer the surplus cash to be thrown off as a special divi or increase in normal divi(s).

Thanks folks - C

Yes it increases % of ownerhsip but now (when it completes) there will also be £2B less assets in the company

And yes for every £1 they blow on buybacks, that's £1 less on our Balance Sheet - reducing the NAV of the company and less money to distribute as dividends.

Cheers - C

LTI - please explain how sepnding £2B in cash increases our investment.

In my simple mind it leaves us with £2B less Net Assets on the Balance Sheet, with fewer shares on the Capital side.

I know if I had surplus cash as a director of a company, I would find a better use. But then these directors are looking to line their pockets via so-called increase in EPS, but if you have fewer shares you could have less total profit overall. All smoke and mirrors to benefit those inside and does not help the PI - just my view of course.

Mr Market dictates what the SP will be today, tomorrow and thereafter. and that is what my shares are worth, irrespective of book value, EPS and anything else.

Back to hide in my den again to avoid the flack

Cheers - C