The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
a sunday morning post.........
on youtube there is a 2 minute trailer on krishnendu bose documentary on the traumatic birth of bangladesh. the british cauterised bengal with the partition of india establishing east and west ****stan. this road led to a brutal war of independence - 3m were killed by west ****stan (supported by their allies notably usa) in east ****stan to crush the war of liberation. forged in this crucible bangladesh was born and this happened just over 50 years ago.
if i was hasina & co i would probably hate the west but the interdependency remains. our thirst for cheaper manufactured goods, their desire to give the people a better life and here perhaps is the dynamic for this project to proceed.
china is part of 21st century's story. without power china's partnership this project would be dead but here we are with very public recent announcements of ambitious strategic power and intrastructure investment between the two governments. to achieve the longer term green nirvana the transition currently requires 33.6 million tonnes of coal a year to keep the lights on for the next 20/30 years. there is only 1 million produced domestically and there is no money left to pay for imported inferior coal.
but it's a political decision at the end of the day and what has changed for hasina apart from the maths? i am of the opinion that the company has really tried to see the local population as stakeholders now in the whole venture rather than obstacle to overcome. quality alternative housing in a proposed model village, job retraining and the prospect of a more prosperous future. the rotational aspect of the intervention allows for a future solar park and repurposing of the entire site post mining. it is a vision of a post colonial bangladesh using its own resources with chinas muscle and gcm's operational ingenuity. there is a clear narrative here and the reports of lack of protests outside the recent agm is i think significant.
i was invested over a decade ago, lost money, moved on. started to invest again a year ago and this feels huge. nervous? of course but what potential there is....... a 60% rise in just three hours on friday afternoon and many posters here have seen wild fluctuations in price many times, very, very quickly.....
thanks so much to the excellent posters on the board (especially searcher) and i came across this warren buffett quote yesterday 'you cannot buy what is popular and do well..........'
I thought the Market Herald piece was really worth watching (just over 13 minutes long) and It gives Majid a really supportive platform to explain the companies strategy. What comes across so strongly is a belief that what has been acquired is starting to reveal substantial more value than first thought. Just a few minutes in Majid is confident that there is 'a ton of future growth in the (Canadian) asset base' The same point is re-iterated later in the interview.
It's a coherent and well considered pitch to attract more Canadian investment into i3 which has grown from 2.5% to 10% of the company's value in a little over 2 years or so. It's a timely reminder of just how much the company has changed over recent times.
Another good find Tony...........
The Eric Nuttall interview is only 5 mins long and well worth a look....... Eric advises to stick with the programme and ride out the bumps. A 5 year play for the dividend seeking investor. A Very convincing piece and thanks Tony for sharing.......
&..... with Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion currently 80% and Coastal Gaslink 85% complete both are due to be operational late 2023 early 2024. A very, very significant long term investment into Canada's O&G sector.........
Tony, I was certainly aware of the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion Project but perhaps less so with Coastal Gaslink which on reading would suggest a transformational impact on the Canadian gas market in its ability to convert into LNG and access significantly expanded export markets. Like others appreciate your consistently informative and super relevant posts..............
That was really interesting Tony…… Last time I posted a couple of weeks ago I was far to glib on the ‘it’s no problem being 17p/18p as you double your money in 7 /8 years on compounding dividend re-investment’…. I’m now at 10% profit on my overall i3 position and of course this was very different when SP was 30p+…. What Shubam Grey does very well is explain the nature of the cycle and draws out the limited debt pool of the Canadian sector in comparison with US shale when production was being ramped up last year to meet demand at $100+ a barrel.
Have you the nerve to go through the pain to get to the other side? I don’t ask this lightly as most of us don’t have a high roller mentality and looking longer term to provide for ourselves and family.
The SG interview is a great example of DYOR and then make your mind up. I can’t say I’m happy (along with all of us…) but I’m keeping investing in i3 and trying to keep a cool head as there is so much outside of our control….
For me, the fundamentals haven’t changed……
Whilst we can all try and read the macro environment runes I for one lack the specific industry perspective which provides the insight as to whether i3 is a progressive, well run company in comparison to its peers. In this vital respect I find Tony’s (and indeed GGG’s) continuing contributions invaluable. As a LTH such consistent data based analysis certainly affects my investment decisions and appreciate the input…….
Tony,
That was super interesting. Understanding that mankind never invents anything that requires less energy and that to power the worlds computers takes more than the entire airline industry....... ??
& GGG..... as an investor of a similar level of course I share everyone concerns. However my priorities have now turned to income generation and as you're no doubt aware taking SP at 20p and the monthly dividend as a constant if you simply re-invest every month the compound effect is after just 8 years you have paid back your original stake and have in effect a free punt. That doesn't stop me watching share price movement very day though.......
And finally I told my wife a few days before the event that I thought Truss was going to go and over the weekend that Sturgeon would resign....... I keep thinking to myself why I3 would go through a timely and expensive process of employing a new CFO if its was having active discussions with another party for its takeover? In mitigation I am just recovering from a hernia operation and probably a little board........
It's all conjecture and supposition. How do we know future intentions of any other investor, private or otherwise? What if Institutional selling has ceased and they have taken some profit (as I did when I had to raise cash for a flat last year) If that's case the current downward pressure on SP will lift. Of course when the SP was 30p it would have been so wise to sell at the time. But like many others I thought 40p was on the near horizon. So I try and look at the fundamentals, have we reached peak oil, have we safe jurisdiction, will there be more or less demand from China? Also there is completion of Trans Mountain Pipeline across Alberta & British Columbia which is scheduled for the end of 2023, opening up significant commercial opportunities for the sector. As for myself, I haven't got the inclination or temperament for trading. I am a long term investor and albeit with my limited knowledge I don't see much better out there at the moment.........
Real people doing real jobs in extremely challenging times….. What a job Graham Heath has done and best wishes to him and his family for a happy and healthy life. Oh & still a (very significant) supportive shareholder…….
Olderandwiser,
As someone whose opinion I value on this board, if you don’t mind me asking what is the primary holding in your pension fund?
I3 Energy is the largest position on my SIPP and I won’t be going anywhere…….
Well done to everyone who held this week and even indulged in a cheeky top up (which I did……)
Good end to the week and GLA……