Member Info for CrustyPete

Yes RJ and the good news is that it seems to be a very liquid market at present, which is good insofar as that is very difficult to "manipulate". The MM's are earning their crust on good, honest trading flows.... It will be interesting to see if and, if so, which way the "squeeze" comes? Will the MM's end up short of sellers or buyers.... I know here my money is; and am glad to have been topping up over the previous 48 hours. I think the 50:50 play has now swung to 60:40 in favour of the "committed" and against the "sitters on the fence"..... I doubt tomorrow will be definitive one way or the other but I suggest that Monday and the early part of next week might.

Yes RJ quite possibly another dead cat bounce as seen in early March? But I suggest a bit more than that on this occasion due to the timing and surrounding snippets of info (hiring of Rig/ Drill manager, RFI for services etc). Which, if they are about to start some form of operational activity may need some short term capital to fund it eh? Unless they are hiring the rig out?

This is a PnD every day DFG!! So this surely has something behind it.... I would go with your second suggestion. But, if so, they will have to maintain this rise for a few days for it to be worthwhile.

Agreed DFG, we have been told what they have capital enough to cover and that does not include completion of the future work programme.

Well one and all, one word of caution; we did have a very similar rise in early March but it evaporated after two days - so, whilst there is every reason to be optimistic, one swallow doesn't make a summer. This rise needs to consolidate and then push on.....

Well in the same way as AEX would have wished to get rid of the Nyuni license the TPDC asked them to try and "Farm it out" to an operator (something they thought would be bloody impossible). IF AEX cannot progress the license they may be instructed to do the same for Kiliwani BG. They ha no operational capability at present anyway.

I have to claim that I do not know the answer but, rest assured, I will be asking that question at the next opportunity

I have no truck with such things but if you were to believe the cognoscenti a 500 UT means "gap the stock".

Will be interesting to see if that holds true and, more importantly, in which direction! ;0)

Maybe Fishcakegoodness can ask his cousin?!

Well you all know my opinion on this as indeed should RJ, as he was at the AGM in July. Tyhey staed then that to ,maintain the operatorship of Kiliwani they need to report annually to TPDC on heir operational progress in that year and plans for the future year. The 3D seismic was expected to tick the box for 2023 and they thought that the could cover the haitus between 3D seismic results and "production" from Ruvuma. However we now know that the 3D seismic project crached and burned and Income form Ruvuma is not not now expected until H2 2025. Can they keep the pot boiling? Will the TPDC allow them enough leeway to keep this running until then? Will the issues with the 3D (beyond AEX's control) buy them time?

Well it is certainly a question I will be asking at the next AGM which, even if they hold it again in July (very late based on past performance) is only a few months away.... it should be within 3 months of year end results so, without extraordinary justification, I would expect it before the end of June.

I tend to agree DFG.... we could see the completed funding announcement and revised resource estimates issued with each other early next week.

You may be right Ssccss but, as Wimbledon inferred earlier, the fact that they are now going to market for service providers suggests that they now know their intended work programme (EWT and Appraisal well) and that might also mean that they have the all they need from the Basin Modelling and revised Resource Estimates - will he Nomad be taking that info to potential funders as we speak? Will we see the results of that Basin modelling next week....?

All quite possible.

I doubt that Baker Hughes are out entirely but using local service providers for a much of the "heavy lifting" makes a lot of sense as it has tax advantages and hence is a lot cheaper - still wonder whether that provides "value for money" but that is what we employ a board for. May also mean that they have to be seen to offer the work to local service providers but does not necessarily mean that they have to use them.

Ooops missed out on the NT1 re-working entirely ;0)

Thank you 5085, seemingly good progress and consistent with that Vacancy for Drill Manager from last week.

I think you will see an sp very close to 4p Rojo after a succession of positive news items; Dev License, rig contract, NT2 workover, CH1 spud date, drilling (Dec?), Pipeline initiation Q1, CH1 analysis and, finally, production. And all within the next 15 months. Were that to happen that is more news flow in 15 months than we have seen in the last 15 years!!

And if it does get delayed by 6 months, so what? What's another 6 months?

I take your point on the "maintain pressure of the flow as well, as I hear that can tend to reduce over time....." that would certainly be true in a conventional basin (as in NHE's conventional play) but not sure that is so relevant in He1 scenario. It will be interesting to see what the new model comes up with.

Must dash, have a train to catch.

GLA

Yes I would agree to a large extent DFG - but personally if the basin model and resource estimates are sufficient it would de-risk this considerably; yes, indeed an announcement of Itumbula as a commercial discovery would be huge! But I think we will have the "heads up" with the Basin Modelling and sufficient knowledge to make an informed "guess" about the outcome of the EWT.

Frankly DFG, think the EWT will simply firm up on the basin modelling and resource estimates; they would not articulate those numbers to third parties or the market without great confidence. The EWT would simply allow them to announce it as a commercial discovery.

I'm just bored Rojo, bored ;0)

Dreamingforgold, in recent raises the sp has drifted post raise as the shares bought come back to the market; of course that is a distinct possibility on this occasion too. However the reverse might also be true, particularly if announcement of the raise coincides with the release of the basin modelling and revised resource statement. It is commonly accepted taht the market hates uncertainty but with the new figures and guaranteed funding for the EWT and appraisal well I think that uncertainty is largely reduced and there would be little stopping this rising. Indeed IF the new figures are released before the funding the sp could be considerably higher than it is now at the time of that funding.

As long as we know the figures at the time of funding and as long as they are good I would be inclined to buy immediately. If we fund before the figures I would be inclined to wait..... the uncertainty still exists and selling the new hares into the market would surely have a negative impact on the sp; though, I suspect limited.

Just bought a few more (pocket money amounts) at 0.79p - with the Tanzanian Govt back "in harness" that looks like too good an opportunity to miss?! ;0)

May get more if it stays at below 0.80p.