Member Info for cristalball

Crazy valuation . No information via RNS for ages . What’s going on with thambani ? Come on .

Chaps - you recognise revenue when ownership changes - I.e. on delivery of the goods . Delayed payments have no effect on the P&L ( unless of course the debtor goes bad an you have to provide for it ).

I really don’t think we should be down here , but with the current investor relations team - we won’t be moving up until a large deal lands , and/or we get interest from an institutional investor / PE .

Very disappointing when you look at how SEE spin their pipeline and potential deals . At such a surpressed SP it makes raising value destructive .

You need to remember though that from a funding perspective profit and cashflow are two different things. As as tech business, a lot of the development costs will be capitalised, so won't hit P&L until amortised.

I don't think the company location / background is an issue at all. in fact it may be a positive for certain markets, such as the US. The larger issue is, as you say, our IR team have no clue how to spin a positive RNS>.

What’s the unit cost ? Are offering them at cost price to get into the market ? Do we need user SAS subscriptions to make a profit ? What percentage of customers will take this up . ? No info from the BoD at all .

It’s more that they publish every RNS in such an ultra conservative way . Depressing as a long term holder .

You have excelled yourselves with your pessimism in your RNS updates . When are you going to wake up and replace your IR team with some professionals who understand AIM . The current SP is a direct reflection of the story your are telling - and it doesn’t do the company justice. Yours , an angry shareholder .

the 15:07 trades are certainly sells, if you look at the spread at the time. explains the drop today.

Investor relations won’t give us any sense of the commercials though - so we may be getting limited SAS revenues unless customers subscribe after a trial period and probably selling at a huge discount to get a position in the market . All valid strategies but it would be good to know . Yesterday really naffed me off .

GLR - it isn’t the core Nexeed product , if you read all the literature on the Bosch site , it’s part of a suite of hardware .

- the Company has had an agreement in place for the supply of Kylos Air products to Bosch
- Bosch is securing approval of the TDL140 with its various air freight customers,
- the TDL140 has been approved as an active tracking device by Swiss WorldCargo,
- Bosch continues to undertake testing in order to achieve equivalent approvals and certifications from other airlines.
- Bosch has now been marketing this product to its extensive customer base for several months.
- Bosch is now showing the first results from this effort and in particular that Swiss WorldCargo has recognised that our technology is of the highest standard to justify their endorsement.
- further confirmation of the advanced technical capabilities of Starcom's tracking products"

urgh. they just didn't need to post half of this stuff. ..
- "announces an update" (not "pleased to)
- " in the process of securing approval" , "to enable sales of the product".
- "Whilst this approval is yet to lead to any additional orders"
- "there can be no guarantee that this will lead to further orders"
- "While no additional orders have yet been placed with us by Bosch"

Nice reference in the Telegraph over the weekend to the US DoD interest (Obviously known to us )

The structure is in various corporate presentations . The funding deal will depend on the option chosen - I.e. debt / equity / offtake commitment . The latter is very interesting if the US DoJ want to secure supply - i.e . Fund mine production in return for first refusal / discounted supply .

Hi mate - just to clarify, they aren't "all gone" - a big chunk have though - number (1) below.

01 Jun 2019 22:12
There are three types you need to consider

1). Ordinary warrants 28,355,000 at 6.6p as at 31/12/18 . 515,000 and 1,136,000 have been exercised post YE so 26,704,000 o/s. All expire in June 19. (NOW ALL GONE)

2) broker warrants . 13,200,000 at 6.6p . Expire December 2020. (Still live)

3) share options . 8,420,000 at C$0.07. 1,260,000 exercised post YE so 7,160,000 expire in December 2026. Additional options awarded post YE but at C$0.14. (Still Live)

So in summary , just shy of £3m for MKA at 6.6p if all 47m warrants / options are exercised .

A reminder of what he calculated long ago . We have upgraded the resource by 60% since then .

The investment values Songwe Hill at £24.49m – which translates into a share price of 23.3p – remarkably almost exactly the same as our valuation exercise on the previous page calculated.

More significantly however is the option agreement attached to the £12m investment. It stipulates that Noble can increase its stake in Songwe Hill from 49% to 75% by securing all project finance (currently estimated at $216m). If we assume a 4:1 debt to equity ratio for the project, then Noble would be required to put up a further $43m at the project level (or find a partner to assist in this), and also secure $173m in debt finance. Construction would be fully funded, and the mine would enter into production.

Mkango would not be required to inject any further capital into the Songwe Hill project, were the option exercised. Given that the DFS will be fully funded by Noble, it is thus feasible that Mkango will not actually be forced to return to the market for the foreseeable future for further cash. Let us assume Noble exercises the option (and the £12m investment is already good reason to make this assumption): Mkango would have a completely free 25% carry on a REE mine that (using the existing PFS) will be generating – on average across its 18-year mine life – EBITDA of $103m pa on revenues of $162m pa. How would one value a vehicle (namely Mkango) that it appears likely will enjoy £18.5m EBITDA pa for almost two decades, commencing say in early 2021? Crucially that valuation should be based on Mkango’s existing capital structure, save for outstanding options and warrants that are presently ‘in the money’.

Employing a lowly multiple of 6x EBITDA would imply a valuation for Mkango’s 25% free carry in Songwe Hill of £110.8m. The total diluted share capital at the current price amounts to 153.5m. Accordingly, one could argue that were the option to be exercised by Noble to increase its stake in Songwe Hill to 75%, then Mkango could be worth 72.2p per share based on Songwe’s existing economics alone.

Mkango very active today - talking of 800bn investment in wind farms and EV revolution.

If you think any of those positive / longer terms investors would sell at 1.5p you must be crazy . .

I sense a monster RNS coming !