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Was just having a read back through Centamins RNS's during their Construction Phase

Quite a lot of TR-1 notifications as holding thresholds were crossed due to buying from the open market.

I'd expect to see similar happening here

Such is the nature of major projects in emerging markets Stringer.

The highs & lows are all part of the journey.

Companies either make it through and shareholders make a lot of money or they don't.

Kefi is very soon to be one of the success stories

Stringer,

It seems to me that there is a large buy being filled, hoovering up the low asks as they are added, possibly 0.66, 0.67

Nice :)

Buried_treasure, seems to me you are getting a little anxious and irritable. I'm loving it.

Which part of the below from Centamins annual accounts isnt correct?

"The Sukari Gold Project will be the first large-scale modern gold mine to be developed in Egypt. Centamin's operating experience in Egypt gives it a significant first-mover advantage in acquiring and developing other gold projects in the prospective Arabian-Nubian Shield"

Centamin were a first mover into Egypt. The link shows there share price growth from construction through to production.

https://postimg.cc/mzxKZHt3

There were equity raises within this time and so the market cap grew even greater than the share price.

Centamin is a great comparative to Kefi and the Lassonde curve which suggests now is the perfect time to be loading up.

Stebo, funnily enough i was recommended to buy Centamin shares whilst working on a mine in Saudi and pricing a separate gold mine within the Kingdom.

One of the reasons I bought Kefi shares was because of the obvious value gap that I could see and the similarity to Centamin.

I was hoping that I had timed my entry here to be just prior to the construction start but obviously missed it by a bit.

Its clearly happening now and the delay provided me the opportunity to accumulate more.

Stebo,

I was invested in Centamin in 2014 - 2016, so these are pretty quick / rough calcs.

If you'd have put $10k in at start of construction, at start of production it would have been worth about $65k.

Over the next 13 years you'd have received $25k in dividends and received $60k at takeover last year.

So as you can see, getting in at construction start when there was a massive value gap was the most profitable point and there was subsequently many opportunities to exit over the following 13 years at with incredible returns.

Bonkers

Centamins Market Cap was about 230m at construction start and went up to 1.9bn as it entered production.

Haha Rob, you beat me to it

Stringer,

If we take the worst case Kefi scenario, simply looking at Tulu Kapi Open Pit, ignoring Saudi, Konso, surrounding licence areas etc etc.

The NPV at production start is equivalent to 7p per share. (135koz pa, $2,800/oz, NPV @ Production Start = $897m)

To get to the minimum 7p at production start which it will, will require 13% share price growth per month.

Now you can sit on the sidelines and hope to buy in at the current price the day before first pour, but you are going to be sorely disappointed.

The share price will move in waves sometimes based upon something in the public realm, sometimes without any clear change to anything.

Any whiff of a takeover and this will go ballistic

There is short, medium & long term massive gains available here.

In reality, KEFI will start with Open Pit & combine this with Underground Shortly after as it adds massive value.

Kefis priority Bonkers has been to get Tulu Kapi financed. The economics of just the open pit have been good enough to achieve this.

Undeground mining will probably commence late 2027 and bring the 135koz per annum up to 191koz estimate in 2028

Bonkers,

Kefi clearly state their business plan on slide 18 and the economics on slide 19.

During construction of the Open Pit and Process Facility:

• Complete DFS on the Underground Resource below the Open Pit

• Scout drill beyond the Underground Resource

• Resolve expansion plans to be triggered once open pit has settled down

- Start the Open Pit and Processing Facility and repay development finance as soon as practicable with lower cost corporate facilities once in production

- Trigger expansion plans

Interesting that Kefi has a 10% institutional investor holding.

Thats only going to go up :O)

Looks like the $5m i predicted Kefi had spent in the last year which would be recoverable from the financing package was bang on the money

An RNS could land at any time now confirming that the detailed definitive documentation has all been signed.

Let the trend be your friend here

Slightly more detailed than the initial article or rns

https://www.ena.et/web/eng/w/eng_6584952

I don't disagree that it's been years in the making, with a civil war, covid and a corrupt minister in the mix. Those things are past now.

It couldn't be easier to pin point where we are on the Lassonde Curve.... the bottom of a massive value growth phase

Stringer,

This is AIM. Market manipulation occurs and shares move on sentiment, rumour and news.

The market hasn't woken up yet, but it will, hence as an investor rather than a trader I am extremely comfortable with where everything is at.

A 240m to 320m value on the back of financial sign off is perfectly reasonable on an $1.4bn project and this ignores Saudi

Deedee,

You say everyone's worried about a placing. I wasn't yesterday and am even less so now.

Those who keep stating it are either bed wetters, don't comprehend where the company is or are simply being disingenuous to profit from the former.

The reality is that Kefi will now get everything signed off in the next few weeks and be able to recover say $5m from the finance package for what has already been spent on Early Works (Normal practice)

They'll likely be some cash from the last raise left over and working capital facilities are made available by banks at this stage of sign off, plus, Kefi can now back up their ability to repay any borrowings using the offers for Saudi.

BCM are obviously keen to be involved and i'm sure would lend if asked

Plus the fact that Saudi is no long a priority to sell also shows that the company is OK going forward

The value gap here is huge and risk reducing massively. The naysayers know it, they are trying to profit from it and will be gone gone very very soon

The market will take 10m shares off me in a single hit

Looking very promising