Member Info for CR888

Sheltie I revise my Target price
Feb 28 same 550 p
August 31 around 650 p or above ( August is around 7 months away so not easy to predict )
So now only around within your 10 per cent of your suggested levels so far
Good week

Oil prices might possibly retrace to say 80 Usd … but with inflation, supply/demand , Ukraine , who knows oil price could head towards 90 and more …

Bp was 500 p before Covid so not unreasonable to expect Bp to break 400 p soon …. Even if a small retracement before then …
Also the U.K. might announce from around 26 Jan less restrictions which might mean more travel etc
Good luck !

DPO turned positive Detrended Price oscillator - is anyone familiar with this indicator

Just clearing ideas - also on Support and Resistance levels , it’s not clear to me which levels might be used as Support and resistance … on the high side 785 p around …

50 Day moving average either 467 simple , or 483 p Exponential …
I see 484 p a level of resistance and above that maybe 555p , below maybe 425/430 p hard to see exactly where

Sanchez or anyone …any ideas on key support / resistance levels :) !

https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/london-stock-exchange-proposes-special-listings-for-private-companies-11642248741

Lse tries to attract High Tech listings to london

Just putting thoughts to paper before I forget

2 more points
1. If Dark is growing at 50 per cent a year now ( I believe that this will increase to over 60 per cent as Governments around the world watch Ukraine and decide to upgrade their Cyber software )

On basis of say 50 per cent growth a year , and let’s assume a price of say 500 p

Then Dark growing say 4 per cent a month
If 4 per cent a month on 500 p then that’s 20 p a month or 1 p a day , so just on current growth we might expect an increase in share price of 1 p a day on average … so half way to target of 2/3 p up a day on average in next 6 months

2. Full pipeline of client acquisition could accelerate next 3 to 9 months ..
3 Getagrip mentioned at shareholder meeting new big investors are ready to buy into Dark after things settle down

Sheltie / Sanchez great to see the TA

Sheltie guesses 500 p by Feb 28 , I guess over 550 ….

Sheltie guess 600 by August 31 , I am slightly more optimistic as always and am nearer 700 to 800 , let’s say 750 which is nearer average broker target ..

Not much difference ! Next Monday Usa is on holiday so U.K. might just tread water until Tuesday when Usa markets open ..

Critical levels in Usa markets .. and so far bounced off critical support levels on S and P , the Fed is walking at tightrope similar to 2018 when rates rose

I would be happy for a 10 p to 15 p rise a week on Dark for its recovery … so only 2/3 p a day on average is enough …
As mentioned before Crowdstrike / Sentinel One very near critical lows on support level and both bounced nicely Friday night , let’s see if trend reversal continues in Usa
Good weekend

On price movements of Dark a tech share

1. Quarterly results
2. Product development
3 . technical Analysis
4. Overall market , Ftse 100 and Nasdaq

Out of our control
1. Governance issues like ML news
2. Any large shareholder selling ( most probably at higher prices )
3. The volume of shares traded each day including new big investors
4. Broker updated Target prices ( average now 775 p around ) .. but as agreed on high side for today .

So in the end Technical Analysis is the main tool in our control …

On positive side 20 per cent Margin and growing now 40/50 per cent a year or per cent a month … with Microsoft on their side and Cyber attacks in news monthly !

Good post jgs - also liquidity daily on the whole london stock market I hear is less than the daily volume of shares bought of Apple shares daily … for tech many uk investors but Usa shares of course through funds and directly the shares

Most people here do not divulge shares held , … it’s good to know if someone holds or is short or no shares as easier to understand why they say their strategy …
Going forward I plan to hold most … but am open to sell some , say 10 per cent if we reach a clear resistance in short term and there could be a 5 per cent pull back ….

Sheltie 500 by end of Feb and 600 p by end of August … fair enough … no one knows , Darks performance , the Oversll Market performance , internal shareholders , ML news etc can all influence … good to see you are bullish ! Fingers crossed !

Sheltie - may I also ask you to guess where you believe Dark will be end of Feb and end of August !

Sheltie - I admire your focus and diligence to get the right Entry Price and bottom fish …

Certainly we could all be more careful on Entry and Exit on shares … well done ! Art not science and 50 per cent success rate is already very good !

No one knows future price , but trend reversal from down to up looks very likely and especially with a close above 50 day Moving average

Anything can happen … but upside more likely in my view now !

Sheltie- it’s great to see different views here .
As I said 10 pounds , 100 , 1000 , 10000 pounds investors all deserve respect and equally important. Apologies now for saying your investment was insignificant , that is never warranted .. and actually it’s not about the number of shares anyone owns … we are here to discuss Dark …

We all know now there are positives and potential negatives about Dark … ( one negative might be Tech general in Usa Nasdaq did trend reversal this week , due to Fed and inflation and interest rates )

So you ask me to guess end of Feb and end August ..
Feb 28 … I would guess somewhere between 500 to 600 p .. let’s say 550 p .
By end of August at average broker target price today around 750 / 800 p
Partly depends on ML news in next 2 weeks , and USA nasdaq might influence a bit .

April is next results , we can expect good results . and Again resukts in July ..

Some support resistance maybe around 484 p , 554 p , 654 p and 784 p … around those levels maybe

To be honest need higher volumes than today , 1.6 m today , 2million to 3 million better … seems investors are waiting next 2 weeks for news ..

Kick good weekend , and thanks for your ideas on valuation ! Food for thought …

It takes more than 3/4 days for investors to come back ! More to come !

Kick …
Valuation … is a big topic … whole market direction in U.K. ( and Usa ) , Sentiment , Margin , Griwth of the company , Pricing power , Technology moat , Execution ( the goid thing is top Managemnt of Dark own shares and are well motivated for long term success ) … Griwth if the Industry , Microsoft partnership , … Everything is going into Cloud and internet …

Honestly Crowdstrike and Sentinel One Valuation by Brokers is also 50 / 60 per cent above their current price … very hard to value … nothing much changed as some peole have said since last September and now , growth still continues… I do believe PH valuation too conservative and the other Brokers fairer if ML news is Ok

Kick I agree - can’t compare Nasdaq to Ftse 250 !
Avast is a different business model , millions of customers …

Dark only has 6500 , plus the Ukrainian government soon :)

1 . one valuation could be average of all broker target prices. Within days 6 months 775 p
2. Another could be say 30 per cent discount to equivalent company in Nasdaq ..
3. Technical Analysis …

Todays volume seems lowish 1.5 million shares

Value shares with Dividends , and bonds easier to value by traditional valuations … Tech seems very varied ,

Lucky for us Dark has short supply of shares in market , and their Ipo was a cheap price …

If Ipo price was 500 p and. Dark has grown by 50 per cent then maybe. 750 p closer to fair valuation than 444.6 p today …
Agree Kick everyone will have different view in Tech … look at Tesla !

Kick how about not Avast ( I was a shareholder of Avast til it got bought )

Similar analysis comparing Dark to CRWD , S , Paolo Alto and Fortinet might be closer …

Kick you are a smart guy but so are Piper Sandler , PH , Jeffries , Needham and Berenberg ( their average is 775 p )

Ok great Sheltie - I agree quite volatile range following sentiment- us 450 p the limit or more upside in next few weeks ?

Given Darks original Ipo target price was around 480 p / 500 p then we are under water …

Given the company has grown since Ipo surely 700 p to 800 p is justified … and this takes account of a 30 per cent pull back in Usa …from the peak of shares like CRWD and S although they both Ipo at the very high end of target price … so Dark undervalued if below the lowest TP from Piper Sandler … after ML news this could move !

Good post

It shows the future of War fare might be Cyber Attacks first ….then traditional Tanks , Bombs , Drones and Submarines curing access to internet cables - Now Cyber is first line of attack … globally