George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
I'm not convinced this has even bottomed. Unless there is positive news soon when they inevitably do another share issue for working capital then they will need to raise at 1.25 to 1.5p next time if they are doing 50% discounts again.
I think this may push a few long term holders out but if it pushes close to £1 I’m sure lots of other holders will add. Long term you have to feel the additional assets coming on board will bring the further sign posting of ‘mid tier’ status to reality but the reality is this is an unloved shared (as the board don’t do anything to promote the share price).
So for me, I think there will be opportunities to get this even cheaper but in 3-5 years I think people could well look back and see they missed a great buying opportunity at these levels.
Agree with Rich. I would add Eric seemed pretty downbeat, rather like he realised they'd f's up by not coming out with this sooner, however I think he came across quite authentically. I do feel this is a short term issue, certainly worth a penny or two of the share price but at this stage I don't think it kills my trust in the company going forwards and there is clearly a great deal of cash flow, no debt, some great value not being factored into the share price from the new mines, scope for further VAT offsets and the board are confident that they will still maintain a dividend policy (albeit I guess it will remain meagre with the short term issue and the cap ex requirements that are obviously required).
I think I’ve missed that RNS, the one I read had about 35m shares to be issued around the end of May, 85% of which had to be held for 12 months. I guess given connected parties it is reasonable to think agreement could have been obtained to sell that 85% before the 12 months. That would be circa the 28m odd shares covered by these RNS’s.
I don't think so no ... it's just that the same person/people are involved in these investment funds and Cassidy gold. It remains to be seen but I think they have used their knowledge of the project they were involved in via Cassidy to then invest via gold fund and private equity fund that they run via an Investment company.
David Crichton-Watt founded Asian Investment Management and is Chairman of Cassidy. Those worrying Cassidy shares will be dumped are barking up the wrong tree. https://www.miningreview.com/gold/hummingbird-resources-to-acquire-kouroussa-gold-project/
Interestingly, I noticed Crichton-Watt and another significant shareholder of AIMS own nearly 50% of STCM (individually & through AIMS funds) so when they believe in a company they invest in a big way.
Private equity funds are normally targeting 20 to 25% annual returns, I think they be expecting this to be worth in the region of 35-40p within 3 years. Much of the gold mining sector looks spectacularly undervalued & whilst HUM may not be the best on many metrics the value looks unquestionable.
https://www.aimskl.com/funds/
Private equity fund from same company.
Its clearly going to be a major impact on the business (be that positive or negative) & AK has both a significant direct interest in it working out (ie his large shareholding) but also a reputational stake. He could have played it safe and made his living off sweating the Accugas assets and probably seen his shareholding grow significantly so I suspect this gamble is for sound fundamental reasons and will eventually help push the market cap close to the billion figure. Let’s hope there isn’t too much dilution in that journey.
Pasofino shares up 5%, market cap for them is about £23m for their 49% share of the project. If the market has that value correct then surely HUM's share of the asset value is at least £25m meaning the rest of the company is worth around £50m at current market cap. It certainly feels like nothing will re rate the share price upwards here & I also feeling I am missing something.
Doesn't sound thick to me, seems sensible and plausible. Could well be a combination of financing options including deferred payments, bonds that convert to equity when the share price reaches a sensible level, cash & maybe some equity fund raising (though you'd assume that would be limited e.g to attract a shareholder for strategic reasons rather than purely raising money now).
I'm fairly relaxed though somewhat intrigued to see what's in store . My biggest concern is that my shareholding is smaller than I wish it was!
I think the price had flown up on some doing only basic research (ie seeing big turnover but not appreciating its low margin) and on the hope of something positively unexpected in the results. Given shares were trading at 10p 3 months back it’s not surprising people have took profits and I’d expect some further drift after a bit of a bounce back & it will be interesting to see if 30p holds before further news arrives.
This will have its day again and looks like a hold for long term but I think to get those gains people will need to accept some pain in the short term.