The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
As many have said, with the previous RTO the listing document came at 4:30 and re listing the following day so I really hadn't expected a 7am RNS so at this stage I don't even consider it a delay. Given it was on or around 22/12 they knew they were time constrained anyways and this is a block buster document to prepare/double check and have various teams (internal and external) signing off, so delays really wouldn't be a surprise.
You told us the deal wasn't happening the other day, think you need to calm down and wait and see as I don't imagine AK's key determinant of success will be the approval of a faceless shareholder on a message board.
Charges now showing as satisfied
https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/09115262/filing-history
Clearly a lot going on in the background here so you'd need to be an expert in corporate finance to know the relevance of this ... and I'm not!
RTN - not sure you can just say $400 x 7k, surely AISCs are calculated on a p/oz basis so if you produce 7k less the costs are shared between less oz's and are therefore greater. Whilst this is clearly oversold I think you probably have to use the full current price of gold x oz's under guidance to see the loss to cash flow, maybe knock of a small amount to be generous so its probably closer to $10m than $1m. Counter to this is the market must already have been expecting to some extent a drop in guidance due to the issues earlier in the year and there could well be a recovery of some of these lost oz's if we have move past these last two issues.
I think if we take the recent drilling results and the word of the board that we are beyond the problems then this would easily be value at twice where it is now, but sadly they have lost the markets trust (they already had which probably is the reason that great drilling results have merely been a selling opportunity for many). I think if people are brave they can make a lot of money here but it's time for the board to start rebuilding trust and LTH's have to make a decision if they wish to sit and wait for that to happen or not. You'd not think there is room for a large downside here (though who knows!) so if production can get back on track and moves can be made on the new mines then you'd think there should be some good gains in 2022.
Partly country risk, partly a board that view the share price as not important and therefore don't shout about the company. However, that board have put in their own money into the company, spend years of their lives building it and their relationships with the government and now have a profitable company, with cash in the bank and some huge prospects for the future. Short term things may not move but eventually this will come good in a big way.
As you say, just on Nigeria the market cap is half where it should be. Add in Niger and hopefully a chunk of value for Chad/Cameroon and near term speculation close to a quid a share doesn’t seem overly speculative. The current market is odd though so who knows?!
Not to mention the Ghagoo fiasco.
https://www.thediamondloupe.com/mining-and-exploration/2019-06-20/gem-diamonds-finally-offloads-ghaghoo-mine
I’m hoping it opens at lower than the 19p it closed at as I’d like more!
I suspect first day will be turbulent & obviously highly dependent on what is said in the RNS’s to come. I think it’d be 25 to 30p now regardless of C&C assets so we should do that first day. Assuming the market likes the structure of the deal I’d add another 7.5p & similar again for accugas news on refinance/ customers and how finance ties into Niger. 40 to 45p immediately would be no surprise.
Seems like a good entry point, given they should be around $50m net cash with September tenders and with the couple of big stones. Obviously, that's a bit simplistic but you can't imagine cash flow is any sort of issue for some time so a dividend and/or buy back should be possible. Even buying back 10% of the shares only costs around $10m at these crazy share prices and I'm sure buying back just a few % would increase the share price.
It is was it is, you have to imagine there’s a good reason why updates on forthcoming and I’m sure AK is pretty excited to the suspension over with to see his own shareholding swell in value. My view is that the deal is done but nothing can be said due to the issue with employees & updates on other issues (ie refinance) are intrinsically linked to the deal. If it drags on much longer maybe they’ll be forced to make some announcements (e.g. new gas customer) but I imagine AK wants to drop everything at once the day before suspension is listed for maximum impact.