Member Info for cperkin

With the acquisition of 3D seismic data completed in November 2022 and the culmination of seismic data processing in March 2023, we now have an optimal well location for CH-1 grounded in significant 3D seismic data. We anticipate the spudding of CH-1, and a workover of the Ntorya-1 well ("NT-1") later this year. We also expect a completed well-test of the Ntorya-2 well ("NT-2") soon, providing information that will facilitate the construction of a 35-kilometre pipeline to the Madimba gas processing facility by the Government of Tanzania. The full 3D seismic results will be available by mid-2023 and will permit a thorough revision of the gas reserve and resource potential for the field later in the year. Finally, we expect to sign a Gas Sales Agreement and obtain a Development Licence for the Ntorya Area, securing the long-term development of Ruvuma imminently.



2023 will be a watershed year for the development of Ruvuma with the completion of the 3D seismic survey, the monetising of this extensive gas resource through production into existing infrastructure and transportation to an established power and industrial market in Tanzania. Since acquiring operatorship, APT has continued demonstrating focused determination, technical prowess, and a total commitment to the project.

Kiliwani North and Kiliwani South - Kiliwani North Development Licence ("KNDL")



Orca Energy, via its subsidiary PanAfrican Energy Tanzania ("PAET"), is expected to complete its acquisition of 3D seismic over its Songo Songo license area by Q3 2023. The new 3D seismic programme includes an incursion of 12.5 km2 over part of the KNDL that borders the Songo Songo field to the west as part of their full-field survey. The data, at no cost to the KNDL partners, will be valuable in identifying fault trends, improving reservoir definition, and understanding the Kiliwani North and South structures. We expect to receive processed data by the end of 2023 or early 2024, allowing Aminex to re-evaluate further prospectivity of KNDL and opportunities for further development. It will enable a more robust discussion with future partners to operate the asset and secure additional funding through a farm-out. We have continued with impairment of the Kiliwani North and Kiliwani South assets during the year. We will update shareholders with progress in due course.
Kiliwani North and Kiliwani South - Kiliwani North Development Licence ("KNDL")
Nyuni
In April 2022, we commenced a process with the relevant authorities in Tanzania to return the licence, given our belief that although the Nyuni Area acreage offers upside exploration potential to complement the development projects at Ntorya and Kiliwani North, the significant risks of exploration and the lack of a farm-out partner was far too much risk for a company of our size. The Tanzanian authorities requested that we continue efforts to secure a farm-in partner over the next year, to which we have agreed.

We believe 2023 will be a watershed year for our Company, with multiple macro and local developments converging to produce shareholder value.
since my last Executive Chairman's Statement, energy prices have remained significantly higher than their April 2020 historic lows, with a Brent crude oil spot price average of US$100 per barrel for 2022. The higher energy prices, linked to the lack of investment in new oil and gas projects, sanctions against Russian oil and gas exports, and growing demand in the developing world, are projected to continue into the near and mid-term. Higher energy prices and shortages have emphasised the importance of fossil fuels, particularly natural gas, for the coming decades as an essential and cleaner energy source for global economic development. Moreover, the macro-political uncertainty and significant demand for energy in the developing world will, we believe, translate into continued growing demand for gas globally.
Non-Operating Strategy
Our move from an operating to a non-operating business has enabled the Company to de-risk while anchoring shareholder value by:

1. Shifting operational risk on our most valuable asset, Ruvuma, to ARA Petroleum Tanzania Limited ("APT"), a highly competent, capable, and well-funded operator.

2. Further de-risking by APT to accelerate gas production, targeting October 2023, shifting the operational narrative of Ruvuma from a dependence on the spudding and outcome of the Chikumbi-1 well ("CH-1") to a more anchored and broader development effort as we move toward early gas production.

3. Reducing our operating expenses and overhead significantly to protect the Company while the project is still not generating cash.

4. Successfully acquiring the necessary funds via our equity placing in April 2022 to ensure our running costs are covered (before one-offs and exceptional items) until receipt of Ruvuma revenues commences.
Ruvuma PSA

The Farm-Out completed with APT in October 2020 carries the Company to material levels of production and revenue without the need to return to shareholders for additional funding for the development of the Ntorya field. This revenue is now projected sooner, given the acceleration of production agreed upon between the operator and the Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation ("TPDC"). The Company holds a 25% interest in the Ruvuma PSA with a US$35 million carry of its share of costs. The carry, equivalent to US$140 million of gross field expenditure, is expected to see the Company through to potentially significant gas production volumes with commensurate revenues. The Farm-Out is a result of successful exploration and evaluation work by Aminex, which recognised the underlying value and opportunities in the Ruvuma Basin, while effectively pivoting to a non-operating role to ensure full exploitation of resources and de-risking the Company.

Outlook:

• The operator of the Ruvuma PSA, ARA Petroleum Tanzania Limited ("APT") continues to progress operations at the Ntorya field, with the following planned for 2023:

o Two-week well testing programme on NT-2, utilising a mobile testing unit, principally to sample the gas and establish an accurate measurement of the gas composition, required for the design of in-field processing facilities and the export pipeline to the Madimba Gas Plant

o Conclusion of negotiations and execution of a Gas Sales Agreement

o Finalisation of terms for the construction of (i) an export pipeline from Ntorya to the Madimba Gas Plant to accommodate gas by October 2023; and (ii) in-field gas gathering and processing facilities

o Entering into a rig contract to (i) drill, test and complete the Chikumbi-1 well ("CH-1") as a gas producer; and (ii) workover and recomplete the NT-1 well as a gas producer

o Following the processing of 3D seismic data, an optimal well location has been determined for the CH-1 well

• APT has also submitted a near final Field Development Plan to the Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation which, upon approval, will lead to the issuance of a Development Licence for the Ntorya field

• Orca Energy, though its subsidiary, Pan African Energy Tanzania, has commenced its 3D seismic acquisition programme over its Songo Songo licence which includes an incursion of 12.5km² over part of the Kiliwani North Development Licence ("KNDL") at no cost to the KNDL parties. The acquisition programme is expected to be completed by Q3 2023.

Clerking is what they do in the office all day BG ;0)

Yes, well Sunday rolls to Monday which is a BH, so I guess Tuesday?

Personally I am expecting them next week along with the AGM date as per Crusty, but more importantly for me, an update on well testing and 3D one hopes.

Mouldy and putrid old Ham it seems and a severe case of Trichinosis

Pools are normally filled with water!

Well played IG, closed their long just in time. I wonder if they are now running a short to max returns?

Congrats BG, enjoy!

Aimster are you saying you disagree with the Operators numbers and thus the field potential which is the point being made?

Quite right Edgar, thanks for keeping me honest :)

APT's revised mapping and internal management estimates currently suggest a risked prospective gas in place ("GIIP") of 3,024 Bcf (gross basis, mean case) within multiple reservoir sand lobes and a prospective risked recoverable gas resource of 1,990 Bcf (gross basis, mean case)."

This is of course prior to the 3D results currently being analysed over 332km

Yes to both Steve.

No it wasn't steve, so SCIR still hold, nothing happening at KN-1 whilst waiting on 3D results.

Good to see steve & about time for shareholders.

I don't think anyone is mug enough to be shorting, other than the fact of course there are no reported shorts anyway POC.

Now if you were to suggest that someone is attempting to influence the price whilst building a position then I would say that's far more likely based on the communicated and fully funded work programme for 2023, never mind the huge potential upside beyond 23 and the FFD.

Seems like rent free fantasy to me Rojo, unless of course you can share some evidence :)

Seems Drewky is living rent free in his head....

Could be Haggis, although I don't expect anything till they have completed flow testing NT2

Who remembers the flare :)

https://twitter.com/cperkin99/status/1641043715400646656/photo/1

Don't go GL!
x

More holes in that last post than a whole wheel of Emmental