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Price action has been interesting the last few days.
If you look at the price of a function of the proposed offer, then we're currently priced as though it's not happening given that we are where we are prior to it's announcement. Before that this only traded at around a 50% valuation to offer. Price was supported around 1.50/60 which is support as was pointed out by Geng.
As ever with this share, few comms and little knowledge as to what is actually going on. I'm not an EUA holder but was briefly reading their board yesterday and as I understand it there was an offer made to them some time ago and shareholders were never updated about it. I dont know the whole story, so can't comment further. I'd like to think that we'd get some transparency over whatever is going on - but then i've been saying that for oh what [checks watch...that won't do...checks Calendar...checks Calendar from 2014...] 8 years (I wouldn't even be classed a member of the VLTH club here).
Dropped right back to it, now back to 2…
I should hasten to say this but erm. I think that’s the low folks. Should be up from here.
[famous last words]
TDT - a very good and informative read (and yes, had to look through the source here).
Thanks
CBS
here's one for you TDT.
https://news.metal.com/newscontent/101758293/nornickel-nickel-is-likely-to-flow-into-chinese-market-or-lme-warehouses-pushing-up-premiums-of-other-nickel-brands-in-europe-and-us-markets
Also as of yesterday, Nickel placed on the US Govt critical minerals list:
https://www.mining-journal.com/mine-risk-management/news/1427133/us-government-delivers-mandate-to-support-more-domestic-nickel-and-zinc-producti
Geng is the purple line on top just me being ridiculous or is it valid?
https://invst.ly/xhck7
Published yesterday not sure if posted yet, re nickel:
https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2022-02-18/How-high-can-the-nickel-price-go.html
LOL too true.
Going to go back to my previous theory that I think Wand was on about earlier this week. Sbilov doesn't make offers unless he has something special he can get at the same time. So with his previous takeovers it was gathering large holdings from existing holders to influence board votes. Not possible here I believe.
So I'm going to go out on a limb here and say he's probably given a heads up somewhere along the Rus Gov't line that KM is due for some sort of major funding post-TEO which would instantly double or treble his £100m offer. Think that's his play here. That's why he's made the offer pre-TEO. If that is the case then I suspect we won't hear anything until TEO is released - as RY & Co. may very well be aware of the same info.
And if that is indeed the case - and who the he11 knows how soon that funding would come in - perhaps say a binding commitment, which would, though I'm no RosyLee here, I imagine materially and positively affect the mine economics - then the wise decision is to sit and wait for the TEO.
Sit and wait my friends - we've done that for so long now - we're the best at it.
CBS
that's exactly £100m. Think TKOTM just read the RNS from two weeks ago.
that's a pretty shocking story Norbert re Axeon. I see what you mean. I think vis a vis here with AMC, I did think at the time that RY offloaded our NRR asset to stick a stack of cash in the bank it was more about playing defense in these situations. Given we aren't manufacturing anything (like what Axeon was doing) we aren't subject to the same cashflow / finance constraints. Sitting and waiting has been the game here for a good long while now. Cash in the bank. Few outgoings. First offer has been made.
oh just wait for it Gazzle.
If and when the sp starts exploding north youll see a surfeit of ridiculous messages from newbies, ala:
1.) "£1 end of day here we go!"
2.) "elevator up!"
3.) "I love this company!"
4.) "So much gold!"
5.) "by my calculations this company is worth at least £100b. Fill your boots"
6.) "The most undervalued platinum miner out there"
7.) "How much steel do we produce each day?"
8.) "50p in the next ten minutes, get ready for it"
9.) "Hearing rumors of 8 interested parties tabling BIG OFFERS. Fill your boots"
etc etc etc etc...
Geng I see JBER is 3.25/3.75 - is there any significance when a maker sets their bid offer this tight? Seems the others are much wider. Thanks
CBS
there was also bethany3 who was always highly positive on this, haven't seen him post here for ages.
Hi Geng
I'm not saying they are entirely out.
What I can say is that they had previously been reported as holding 4.51%
And now they appear to have dropped at least below the 3% reporting level.
That diff - 1.51% - at a minimum of outstanding shares means something happened to at least 20m of their shares recently. Its my guess it was a reduction in position - for whatever reason - and 4p seemed the level to do that (netting them a healthy gain).
Definitely open to hearing a different interpretation though.
Thanks,
CBS
don't think so this time time Geng. I'm quite convinced the Euroclear account was - for whatever reason - reducing their position last week. Those huge prints were likely them, and they all seemed to prevent 4p being definitively taken out. I think they're finished with whatever they were up to - we should be able to take it this time.
CBS
Well, welcome to the EUA lot - you lucky sobs. Glad to have you on board.
WRT the share price here at the moment - seems the market is valuing the likelihood of a transaction at exactly 50% at the moment. 7.2p would be the transaction value (1.38bn shares / £100m): 3.6p is exactly half that. Not surprising given theres so little meat on the bones here re any transaction.
CBS
ladies and gents I think comparisons with previous Sviblov transactions is important here.
Highland Gold: I believe when he got control he made an offer that was a 4% premium to where the shares were trading.
Trans Siberian Gold: an 18% premium to market.
In both situations above he had been able to accumulate a large shareholding by, in the instance of Highland, purchasing shares from Abramovich and another guy that gave him on the order of around 40% I think. For Trans Siberian, he bought a 51.2% stake from a 'group of existing shareholders' (https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN_1616080216353589700/in-brief-trans-siberian-gold-agrees-to-gbp108-million-takeover-offer.aspx)
The similarities with AMC just aren't there. First this isn't gold, it's NIckel. Next, we don't have any major shareholders other than PIs - so how will he adapt his strategy this time around? Third, the initial offer is a massive premium to market cap so he's clearly keen, and probably knows he can't go down the old route of buying from fellow oligarchs etc...
This will be seriously interesting.
20 puppet investors at under just under 3% each? So close to 60% of the outstanding shares? I'd welcome this. You cant accumulate that much on the qt. impossible. they do that and we can have our 30p.
Interesting. If it is this guy then I suspect he won't have as an easy time of it as he seemed to with Highland Gold. I wasn't involved in Highland but reading up on it's history it seems Vlad bought some large stakes from individual investors (Abramovich and others). With this it seems he was able to influence shareholder votes to accept an offer.
In our case we have no big shareholders - it's quite literally just the PIs.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4381572-highland-gold-mining-is-soon-to-be-delisted-what-should-you-know
Will be interesting to see how this plays out
welcome back UK Steve good to you bud :)
they do own it:
"Amur Minerals Corporation is incorporated under the British Virgin Islands Business Companies Act 2004. The registered office is Kingston Chambers, P.O. Box 173, Road Town, Tortola, British Virgin Islands.
The Company and its subsidiaries ("Group") locates, evaluates, acquires, explores and develops mineral properties and projects in the Russian Far East.
The Company is the 100% owner of Irosta Trading Limited ("Irosta"), an investment holding company incorporated and registered in Cyprus. Irosta holds 100% of the shares in ZAO Kun-Manie ("Kun-Manie"), an exploration and mining company incorporated and registered in Russia, which holds the Group's mineral licences."
https://www.investegate.co.uk/amur-minerals-corp--amc-/rns/audited-final-results-for-the-year/201906250700102633D/