Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Yes you are right Josh, there is about a 15% chance that the interim exploration report is out tonight!
That might surprise a few people.
Yes although it would'nt surprise me if they posted it a day or two earlier so I will start keeping an eye out from monday night!
By my estimation on the dates of the last 20 quarterly and interim reports over the last 4 years.
Around 15% for each of Monday to Wednesday. None of the these reports were issued on a Friday.
Your very welcome
It is around a 55% chance that the interim will be out in Australia on the morning of Thursday 10 Sep so around 2345 in the UK on the evening of Wednesday 9 Sep.
Probably the most misquoted statement since “Play it again Sam” Humphrey Bogart, Casablanca.
"Hav mineralisation 10 times that found at Telfer ".
“I'm sure it was ten times the present production at telfer.”
“Nope Biswas stated that the grades Were 10 x better than the grades at Telfer from memory”
“I think you will find he said it’s 10x the current grades at Telfur . Which was processing about 1.5g / ton at the time ! “
' Havieron continues to deliver grades more than 10 x greater than Telfer'
“Here is what Telfur is producing this year..... 393koz
FY20 Gold Production..if Hav is 10x that then it’s nearly 4m Oz per year”
Stuartw was the first one to get it completely correct, thank you Stuart
This statement was from the interview Sandeep Biswas CEO of NCM gave at the Bank of America Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conference 12 May 2020.
At that time head grade being processed at Telfer as reported in the Quarterly report issued 30 April 2020 was 0.97g/t ten times that is 9.7g/t.
The quarterly report page 6 : https://www.newcrest.com/sites/default/files/2020-04/200430_Newcrest%20Mar%2020%20Quarterly%20Report%20-%20Market%20Release%20.pdf
The interview link : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vubsc3oIdJk
Starting from 9:03 with the question and SB reply at 09:44
“So this mineralisation is quite different in many ways to what we are seeing in Telfer”
“For a start its much higher grade, I mean, we have'nt seen these sort of grades at this sort of volume in the Paterson”
"The reason we are excited, and you've seen all the drill holes is that we have this high grade kind of what looks like a parabola on its side where we think that the first mining will start."
"Which will involve high grade stoping, which we will truck to Telfer. So this is, you know, 10 times the grade of what we're currently treating at Telfer."
As Stuartw quite correctly points out, its only the grades within the high grade sulphide zone that are ten times higher than the grade being processed at that time at Telfer.
This was also the interview where he stated:
"But the critical path is to start the decline . . . . . If I could start the decline tomorrow I would"
Thank you to all who contribute here.
quarterly and interim reporting
There is no 100% certainty but in four years of quarterly reporting NCM have not issued one on a Friday.
The most likely day (55% of the time) is a thursday and interim reports usually turn up in the second week of the month
I have looked back through four years of NCM quarterly and interim reports, not one was issued on a Friday, I therefore rule out the interim being issued on Friday 11th, the majority 55%, were issued on a Thursday.
Probably
Last year Newcrest issued the first interim exploration report on the morning of Tuesday 10 September in Australia, before that they only issued the quarterly reports.
The interim in December was issued a week early on the 2nd to accommodated GGP's AGM.
The subsequent interims were on 11 March and 11 June.
When you look at the quarterly reports NCM are consistent in the timing of the reports. Over the last four years, 5 reports appeared on the same date as prior year, three reports were 1 day adrift and 3 two days adrift. Only 1 was 4 days later than the previous year.
When you look at the day of the week for these reports there is a significant bias towards a Thursday. Of the twenty reports I looked at 11 were issued on Thursdays, three each on Mon to Wed and zero on a Friday.
Therefore on the basis of this information I am going to assume that the September Interim Exploration report has a significant probability of appearing on the morning of Thursday 10 September in Australia, and late evening on the 9 September in the UK.
I would of course be perfectly happy if it came out earlier
P.S. Last year it was out in Oz the morning of Tuesday 10 September .
Take your pick.
The last interim exploration report was on 11 June, 13 weeks and a day after the interim on 11 March,
Thirteen weeks from 11 June is Thurs 10 September. Twenty six weeks from 11 March is Wed 9th September.
That's in the morning in Australian so in the UK the evening before Tues 8th or Wed 9th September.
Of course it could be a week early and be out tonight!
No Danger!
Haverion will supply a very small fraction of the capacity at Telfer.
NCM will farm-in as fast as GGP can drill the other prospects.
But that was my point you stated they are every 6 weeks, however in actual fact the 11 March to 30 April was 7 weeks and a day. So if it carries on as it actually has it should be the week after next.
I of course agree that they can issue when they like. It will be the same news whenever.
Goodnight
Hi Naptham1 I welcome your opinion on the possible date of the September interim report, but on this occasion I would have to agree with Paddy that it is more likely to be in the week commencing 7 Sep.
You have stated that the quarterly and interim reports appear every six weeks. Problem with that, there are 13 weeks in a quarter, so, every so often there has to be a seven week gap, as there was between the March and April reports. So as Paddy pointed out there are 13 weeks between the March & June interims therefore 13 weeks to september is Thursday the 10th. Last year it was also on the 10th September.
Of course nothing to stop Newcrest issuing it next week but but I am expecting it the week following, in my opinion of course!
Hi Magic, welcome back.
Have you had time to look at the Hannam & Partners GGP equity research paper?
What is your view on their change in the "typical SG of the Haverion high-grade sulphide ores" from 2.85 t/m3 to 3.1 t/m3 "based on newly provided information to us"
Is that a valid/appropriate assumption?
Thank you for all your work you do here
CTC
Final outcome, less ounces but higher valuation.
Thedoors, They would only be able to use released data.
Several parameters changed between reports, amongst other items:
The HGZ was redefined into three levels of different grades and different dimensions that reduced the overall volume.
However although the width of the HGZ was reduced to 20m they maintained the width at 28m to take account of the higher grades of mineralization found in the breccia closest to the HG sulphide zone.
Having reduced the volume they increase the SG of the ores from 2.85 to 3.1 this increases the tonnage of ore per cubic meter.
They increased the gold price forecast from $1700 to $1950
Ah yes, I see where your coming from Bamps.
A quick sample of some of the results in the >5 zone such as 26.9m @16g/t, 16.9m @ 20g/t and 17.4m @15g/t gives an indication of how they may have arrived at 6.4g/t. It sounds high but could be achievable.
Hi Bamps
"My query with it is in the RNS Newcrest grades are lower . The Upper zone is only 5 g/t and the 2 lower zones lower."
In fact if you look at the RNS there is a ">" in front of the "5" it is therefore not "five " but actually "greater than five".
So 6.4g/t is not mathematically inconsistent with >5g/t.
Have a good day.