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When deal was announced believe M&S had said their basket size was £13. This though does need to be caveated, M&S has a very large sandwich trade which would imagine makes up 20-25 % of its total food sales. These have ave of around £5-7 so real average would imagine is nearer £20-25. The Ocado deal I think they see as opportunity to grow shoppers rather than actually cannibalise their store sales. Personally think that they have slightly overpaid for the time up, but is definitely a proposition that they need and most likely cheaper this way than starting from scratch
Really can't understand what is going on with price here. Feels like have had more days in the last 7 where buys have outweighed sales, yet price continues with little falls each day. I tried to average down further last week and got a few more, but wondering if I go again.
I do feel a little exposed already though as have now got a little over 50% of my portfolio invested here.
If the reported sales and buys are accurate, the last two days movements seem odd. Would have expected a bit of a tick up. Still I think I need to de-risk this share a little so have bought a little bit today and look for a 15% rise for quick sell so my main holding can absorb some more downward pressure in short term
Having been here a while here is my take on where we are heading, and would like to think have been fairly consistent with this view. This share remains a gamble, albeit one that has a better chance than a lot of AIM shares due to potential sites. I have long been waiting for Budges 1p party just to see Subo in the nipple tassles, but that is a dream number and set as something for fun by some of the more knowledgeable holders here than me. I am happy to be corrected by those, but that was always my take on it and don't think any have seriously said it will definitely be a 1p share. I think the broker target of 0.64 a while ago was always more realistic, but again that was with a lot of caveats to potential sites landing, therefore as it stands, there may need to be a slight downgrade from that number based in last weeks news. With current price as is, I would expect to start seeing a lot of buys outweighing sales and SP to recover to range of 0.11-0.13 which at which point we will remain for a period until news, as there will be lots of people who bought at these prices taking profit, which is a fair and reasonable way to treat this share as it has been consistent in its SP behaviour for past 2-3 years. For me, the company continues to run by a very capable individual and he has been realistic in his approach to this company and has not thrown good money after bad and chased bad options or burnt money with no regard to us holders. I continue to hope that at least one of the sites is as good as expected and we can all make some decent profit, but you pay your money and you take your chances. All IMO and DYOR etc
Looks like Artemis completely sold, suspect FIL are still sitting on some and expect a further TR-1 from them. Which when dust settles leaves current family / board on around 60%, JD will get their 29.9 and leaves us PI's around 10%. If that is all accurate, then share price shouldn't have as many volatile swings going forward as Mm's less able to play. So can continue to see proper growth as company and gradual SP movement. IMO was massively over valued at 150+ and undervalued at 30. Fair Mcap at this stage for me is around 60-70m so SP of 57-67
This has always been a long term hold for me, and around any expected news this always seems to be fairly wild. From look of sales this is only small fry with people not having hit a short term price and want to play elsewhere. I'm fairly happy with my holding so won't be adding further at this point. However, as with all Oilers this is still a gamble but for me a de-risked gamble as has 3 decent chances. As with gambling, three 2/5 shots as an acca would give me a good chance of return, would expect the double to fly in and almost would gaurantee 1 in three to hit.
A wise investor once told me that profit target should be 50%. Clearly lots on here also think the same and hence the sell off this morning. Unfortunately my buys were on first profit warning and then managed to average down again at 30 so now at around 45 as average. Until see who did big sells yesterday and get the TR-1 from both buyers and sellers though we are all a little in dark here and anything else is speculation. For me though, the actual company have had a rough time in last six months, but bought on dips because they are a growth company with potential. Which is guess what JD also see
I may be mistaken, but didn't JD say they would not buy more than 29.99%, not they actually are buying 29.99%. Semantics I know.
Does anyone have a new target selling price with all today's activity?? I would think if JD are purchasing up to 75 then that has to be minimum number now
If any one is looking at this and think it is worth investing then steer clear. The BOD have added no value and continue to rinse shareholders. Been in this for two and half years and have lost 95% of investment. Expect the last 5% to be gone soon as they have done nothing to add value and continue to pay themselves nice salaries.
Hi Tom, That has always been the aim purely so budge can hire subo for the party. Bit in all seriousness, if all current plays produce then that is a realistic number, but may take a little time. Broker rating is my target and that is definitely achievable in near term. But I have been here couple of years and I've thought on many occasions that my nipple tassles needed dusting off, unfortunately not to see the light of day.
I don't want to dampen anyones enthusiasm, but talk on here about what they think it could go to is absolute bonkers. Either that or they are forgetting decimal places. Broker rating, which generally are taken with pinch of salt, is 0.64 I believe. This IMO is achievable, but that is still 3.5 bagger from here so has a little way to go, and even if we hit in either of two sites, that broker rating was on assumption that we do. Wressle still to hopefully come on board as well, but at some point, unless we are producing decent quantities, we MAY need to do a placing to cover costs (not to keep lights on or rob us, as some placings are but to continue expansion of company.) At that point a consolidation would be required and that is when we could see some of the numbers per share that people talk about. I would re-iterate though, this has potential to be a great earner, but think that realism is also a sensible trait to have. If you are new to here, then would look at LTH's such as Mix and Budge for a balanced view. 6p is 42 bagger from here which puts company value at £500m which if all sites were up and running and had no dusters is an absurd valuation and not based on fact.
Good question Mitch, and I am very much preferring the tone of our discourse since we got of to a bit of a rocky start. Full year at 500m, I see two scenarios. 1. If i were Steve and knew that this was a genuine profit and were expecting continuous profit at this level and sales stabilised or level of, perhaps even growth going forward, I would then definitely cut dividend, as I believe at that point we should start to get investor confidence back and dividend of 3% is an acceptable return. Would then look to further cut debt and start to look at what the store estate looks like. This scenario I think is possible in around 2021, once closures have been completed. Which leads me to scenario 2, This year, whilst the confidence in high street is still so low, then would maintain dividend, make sure a staff bonus is paid, and still pay debt off. This for me keeps investors happy and maintains SP at around 300
Hi Mitch, I am fully aware of the issues that M&S face, but believe majority of the issues are legacy and back of house (logistics). Store estate is going through transformation and until they have closed all that they intend, then re-furbs can be done accordingly. The current closure programme is not aggressive enough, they need to reduce full line stores to around 50-100 where they can have their full catalogue available, effectively showrooms, with a better performing e solution and easier to navigate website. The brands bit that you mention is interesting, but that then dilutes M&S usp of own brand. And most of their own product is made by the brands just wrapped in own label, which allows for quality control and more autonomy in shop layout. They do still have huge hurdles, but the level of cost in their logistics operation allows for quite a lot of wriggle room with sales, because they can just play at fixing that and save c£50m a year, a full transformation would reduce costs by at least triple that. Reducing estate without damaging sales a great deal is further savings and they have already reduced costs by closing one of their H/O buildings. At around £500m profit a year the share price should be 410-425, £750m then looking around 500-515, and in my opinion even in current state of business these targets are easily achievable in the next couple of years.
Mitch some of what you say makes sense, and some is utter clap trap. I will never disagree about the state of boardrooms and the imbalance of their pay to staff. NED's are just jobs for the boys and sorting mates out. But don't see the full time director being much better as they are appointed by CEO, or in current case at M&S the chairman. With way current shares are held and voting then goes very little will change the status quo. I have always maintained that proper price for this share is around 414, but with it being shorted as much as it is, and the current inactivity of board to worry about SP then this share will remain in a range of 220-300. There are so many opportunities for this company to deliver sustained profits even with falling sales that Steve Rowes turnaround plan can be delivered in his 5 year tenure. Have to remember that his predecessor left him an absolute bag of spanners of a business, who never addressed the issues that are now being corrected. Not to say that everything that SR is doing is right or quickly enough, and still not convinced that he will see out the full 5 years. But all that does is further line the top boys pockets as then have pay off for his final contract and bonuses and golden hello to new CEO. But this company is a huge beast and its turning circle is huge so was always going to take a long time