Member Info for Cornishknocker

Just having a look at the South Australia PEPR process, it looks like the 3 month estimate is being cautious. The last PEPR approved was for Kanmantoo Copper Mine (Funnily enough the nearest town is Callington!), that was submitted tpo the South Australia department of mines on the 18th December 2019 and approved on the 20th December 2019 - 2 days! How they went through it in two days I don't know, its 260 pages without the appendices!

I've just worked out what the values for the quarter are likely to be: - Gold Sales - 7318 Troy Oz @ $1482/oz = $10.85 Million. Silver Sales - 107074 Troy Oz@ $17.31/Oz = $1.85 Million. Total Sales = $12.70 Million (Up from $11.758 Million in Q3). On top of that the ROM stockpile has increased from 100112 tonnes to 119411 Tonnes, with the value of contained gold and silver increasing from $23.33 Million to $28.58 Million, which is enough to keep to mill going for about 7 months with no further production from the pits. Should the resource upgrade demonstrate a considerable increase in the ore inventory, I think we definitely need to consider increasing the plant capacity by around 50%.

It's just people selling on the news, happens with a lot of companies, ultimately it will help set a new base.

Another superb set of results, that's an income of about $12.6 million plus another 20,000 tonnes on the stockpile.

The Q4 results should be relatively strong again, the average gold and silver prices for the quarter ended up slightly on Q3, with Gold at $1482.14 and Silver at $17.31.

The big thing here is the twin holes, that gives a massive confidence boost for the proposed new partner - and the rest of us.

That exactly how I read it VanVan, but as you say theres no ambiguity there to me either.

That would give us an EPS of £0.013 or 1.3p and with a PE ratio of 16 would equate to a share price of 20.6p which I think any of us would be very happy with! I'd be happy with half of that.

Sorry I used a quarterly figure rather than an annual figure.

At present, Kiziltepe produces a total annual operating surplus in the region of $28 Million, which goes to Zenit, once the costs are paid off in the next quarter, the surplus will be divided between ourselves and Proccea, that $28 million is subject to royalties and taxes, so as a ballpark figure that will see approximately $10 million per annum paid to Ariana. The new partner is going to pay $50 Million for 53% of Zenit, so we will receive 2.5 years of revenues up front. However our annual revenue will decrease from $10 Million to £4.5 Million, however that will recover to the $10 Million as Tasvan comes on line.

The "New" version of Zenit, will fund the development costs of Salinbas, however Ariana will be free carried for their share - so the answer to the question about what Proccea put into Salinbas is there - Proccea and the new partner will fund the development., to which Ariana will receive 23.5% of the profit (About $8 Million per year).

In short, we will receive $25 Million cash and a total revenue from existing projects of around $18 Million per year.

Its a bit early to make an informed decision at the moment on this.

Ultimately Salinbas requires in the order of $60 Million to turn it into a mine, at present the asset is 100% owned by Ariana, but ultimately its purely a prospect not a mine.

What are the options for this: -

1. Leverage the revenue from Kiziltepe to finance it - That would be "betting the farm", if it pays off great, if it doesn't we're dead. We could reduce the risk by diluting.

2. Develop on the same basis as Kiziltepe with our exiting partner - ultimately if we were to do that we would need them to cough up at least 75% of the capital, to compensate us for giving away 50% of Salinbas - that on the face of it would be my preferred option, but perhaps its too much for them? Again we could dilute to fund our share or leverage Kiziltepe.

3. Kerim's deal, it does feel like we are giving a lot away - however IF they are 100% funding bringing salinbas (Which the RNS does say) into production, that will give us a revenue of $8 Million per year from Salinbas plus reduce our revenue from Kiziltepe from $7 million to $3million, so that's a net increase of $4 Million once Salinbas is in production, and securing a longer future - as well as the cash injection.

Yes the updated resource statement will make for interesting reading. There are two things that appear to make people worried with this stock. 1. The geopolitical situation - I personally think that is overplayed, the one thing the Turkish government needs is gold, as ultimately gold circumvents any sanctions imposed by Ameica or the EU. 2. Resource size and grade, there are concerns about a reducing grade, but increasing the resource base then makes the argument to increase the plant capacity to work with a lower grade. Ultimately in the next quarter the capital cost of the original build will have been paid off, which should see lots of money heading into ariana pockets.

Have a good time, I just reread your response to Bennie, you mentioned increasing tonnage throughput as the head grade drops. Without some major Capex that isn't an option, at present we are seeing some impressive figures for mill efficiency with availability at 99% and recovery in excess of 95% - in short its pushing as much through as it possibly can.

Ok Ash, here goes, until May 2018 the company included the stockpile tonnage and grade, which at that point stood at 62,200 tonnes of ore at a weighted grade of 3.85g/t Au.

In August 2018, there was no figure for the stockpile, however ore production was 70,425 tonnes and the quantity milled was 49,325 Tonnes, which means 21,200 tonnes of ore went to stockpile, making the stockpile 83,400 tonnes. With regards to grade, you can only assume that what was diverted to stockpile was the same as the head grade milled - in this quarter it was 4.99%, which means the stockpile was then 83,400 tonnes @ 4.14g/t containing 345258 grams of gold.

In November 2018 there was 83,229 tonnes of ore mined with 49,272 Tonnes milled at a grade of 4.94g/t. This increased the stockpile by 33,957 Tonnes, leaving it at 117,357 Tonnes@4.37g/t containing 513005 grams of gold.

In February 2019 quarter this year, production was 59,556 Tonnes, with 49,717 tonnes milled @ 5.23g/t. So the stockpile increased to 127,196 Tonnes @ 4.44g/t for 564463 grams of gold.

In May ore production reduced to 24,686 Tonnes with 46,825 tonnes milled at a grade of 4.83g/t, reducing the stockpile by 22,139 Tonnes to 105,057 Tonnes. I'm assuming the ore is coming off the stockpile is effectively coming off the top, so at this point the stockpile grade would be about 4.3g/t.

Finally the August figures were 43,367 Tonnes mined, 48,312 Tonnes Processed @ 4.18g/t reducing the stockpile by 4,945 Tonnes to 100,112 tonnes at about 4.25g/t (425,476 grams of gold) or just over $20 million.

There are a few assumptions there, the biggest one being how the ore is stacked, some mines have a radial stacker with conveyer off the bottom (effectively a first in first out system) some just remove with a front end loader giving a first in last out system. I'm assuming the latter.

Hi Ash, I will sort the figures out for you tomorrow

One possibility is the moisture content of the ore. The assay grades are typically off of a dry sample. The throughput is wet tonnage.

That's a great one Ash, your price predictions for Q4 are looking good, with the current Q4 averages at $1495 for gold and $17.62 for silver.

Look at it this way, a few years ago the exchange rate was $2 to £1, so if you changed $12 million to sterling you would have £6 million. Today it is about $1.20 to the pound, so your $12 million is now £10 million.

The lower the value of sterling, the greater the sterling "profit". However its pretty academic at the moment as so much of the revenue at present is going to paying off the construction loan which is also in us dollars.

All the figures are in US dollars, so you don't need the exchange calculation, obviously you do to covert to sterling.

I was still half asleep this morning, going off the quarters average gold and silver prices ($1475 and $17 respectively) that will give a gross revenue of about $11.7 million equating to a gold equivalent price of $1694/Oz. We actually ate into the stockpile some more this quarter by about 7200 tonnes, however the stockpiled ore currently stands at approximately 142000 tonnes grading around 4.4g/tonne, valuing the ore stockpile at $34 million. In other words the stockpile is enough to sustain production for 9 months with no further mining.