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Can you explain why it will do 200 pc?

There's a huge disconnect between the last reported NAV and the story coming out of HGEN's management and the SP, which is now showing a 50 discount to NAV. These are due to be updated next week which makes this months selloff slightly concerning. Anyone got a better reason than the old complaint that 'the market just doesn't understand this stock' ? I appreciate a chunk of the NAV is locked into unquoted companies - is that what's keeping the pros out? I realise a lot of quoted H stocks have had a pasting in 2023 but several are looking much brighter this year.

I'll second that request. Your Nov 22 blog seemed authoritative and persuasive but since then your forecasts have fallen short by 30-50 pips. Any revises in the pipeline?

Who here remembers that Alan Greenspan quote about 'irrational exuberance'? I fear there's some of that going on here right now. I'm optimistic on this prospect but the trouble with vertical take offs is that there's often an equally sharp correction. A nice and steady recovery north of 10p would be less nerve wracking

Does anyone else thinks that 10 per cent of the total raise is a meaty fee for this kind of stock. After all it was a placing, not an offer for subscription, so no heavy duty admin. But then I guess that's why they took the fee as stock. i.e. dump half the fee stock sharpish for real money than you've basically got a free call option with the other half just in case the placing stoty was true!

I wonder what the analysts at Canaccord Genuity have got to say now. They recommended this as a spec. buy to 2p (when it was 1p) in April 22. It's a pity these guys can't bring themselves to re-examine what they were told, why it was wrong and why they misled us. But then if they did that I guess they'd soon break up the cosy relationships between brokers and companies. After all we're only the shareholders - what do we count for!

Hi pdos just reread your blog from mid 2022. Any new thoughts on GRP given that the SP has drifted badly and we're in a higher interest rate/inflation environment?

There's something not quite right about all this. Remember this is a typical AIM company with all the usual leaks, nudges and winks sloshing round. If this were a genuine interest in a takeover of the coal assets the SP would have shot up. After all the market cap is still under £20m and the current reserves/mining plan/offtake arrangements are already worth more than that. On the other hand Mali gold is a problematic asset at the moment and it's unlikely Contango will ever have the funds/timescale to get that anywhere near production. If I were Contango I'd sell Mali now and fund more production and offtake from Lubu. Coking coal prices have had a decent run lately and new sales would go straight to net profit.

The really worrying thing is that the whole H sector has been floundering for months now. ITM CWR AFC all down as well.

It's as if the promise of the sector is evaporating. This government's toadying up to the oil/motoring looby doesn't help, at least boris had some belief in green policies which this lot clearly doesn't. I fear we may need to wait for a change of govt to lead H back into favour. But some of the companies may not make it that far!

Does somebody know something we don't ahead on the April 3 full year figures? Huge discount to last known NAV now and still falling. Apart from lukewarm support for hydrogen in the UK other markets seem keen on H especially Germany and other EU countries. I really don't understand why this SP is so low in this market. Any ideas?

Anyone else thinking this may be a good time to buy/top up HGEN? Discount to NAV now almost 35p.c. and while there are still no fireworks in the H sector the medium term fundamentals still look good and HGEN in particular has good exposure to Germany which is probably one of the stronger major countries trying to develop a green hydrogen economy. Also several of the listed sector seem to have stopped going down and some have bounced - EQT, AFC, CWR etc. Obviously HGEN has its unlisted holdings and their transparency is a concern but we knew that anyway.

Don't forget your basics. Raw coal is expensive to transport; the more you can add value to the product before moving it around the better. If Contango can get a commercial size coke battery up and running on site and sell that in size then we're adding top line revenue and improving profitability at the same time. May just be a question of another 6-12 months before this concept comes good but that should add significiently to the SP. CGO is the best potential multi bagger on the board right now.

If you want a reminder of reason to buy just re-read the last RNS - an awful lot happening in Feb and Q1. And the coking coal market is indeede strong at present. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/coking-coal-price-surge-backed-by-demand-supply-woes-add-froth-russell-2023-02-07/#:~:text=The%20price%20of%20Singapore%2Dtraded,since%20July%201%20last%20year.&text=The%20price%20has%20jumped%2070.3,a%20tonne%2C%20reached%20on%20Aug. This is a great time to be going into this market assuming no serious commissioning delays. On that basis SP should be higher.

HE1 has one big task to accomplish, which is to find commercial reserves of helium. This is what Lorna was hired as geologist to do. Once she finds the stuff the rest of the model - funding, development, commercialisation etc gets an awful lot easier.

THe placing takes them up to just over £11m in cash which is pretty much what they got through in 21-22. But at least it's out of the way and we can all do what we do best in this sector - wait for the drilling numbers. Then it's double or quits!

Never pay any serious attention to 'analysis' by journalists. Mostly they have never interviewed the company, don't have any useful understanding of chemistry, physics or engineering, barely understand corporate accounts and certainly have no better insight into the future than anyone else. Their job is to write stuff which sounds plausible. If they were talented investment managers they probably would be.

I'm intrigued by today's flurry of negative reaction to the latestest update. Just a reminder folks: it's an AIM new mine/production facility startup in Africa. That's got DELAYS running through it like Blackpool rock. The positives are the stuff's coming out of the ground and there are offtake agreements in place for a commodity in a rising market. Today's big sellers may regret that decision as early as Q1 2023.

But what about the NAV rns where Trig said the planned reduction in Corp Tax would add 5p to NAV?. if Hunt U-turns that planned tax cut then technically that will lead to that expected NAV increase evaporating. There again the announcement of 5p on NAV led perversely, to an immediate 5p drop in TRIG's sp. Too much to hope that we'll see that drop reversed too!?

Nasty! Whole H sector's taken a bashing this last month. CWR, ITM, AFC etc. Seems to me the lack of take-up of the idea that H can help solve energy demand/supply problems has pushed the sector out or favour. Maybe the timescales are wrong, maybe looming recession and infrastructure investment cutbacks etc are all weighing on the sector. And, frankly, the managerial talent across this sector is a bit lightweight. But given the profits big oil is making they should be investing much more in the H alternatives. Not much medium/long term thinking going on right now.

Less than one third of one percent of the stock in issue has changed hands this morning. This may be a rout on price but there's not much volume behind it. Could recover equally quickly with any buying interest. On the other hand if a big fish wants to sell . . . . .!