But what about the NAV rns where Trig said the planned reduction in Corp Tax would add 5p to NAV?. if Hunt U-turns that planned tax cut then technically that will lead to that expected NAV increase evaporating. There again the announcement of 5p on NAV led perversely, to an immediate 5p drop in TRIG's sp. Too much to hope that we'll see that drop reversed too!?
Nasty! Whole H sector's taken a bashing this last month. CWR, ITM, AFC etc. Seems to me the lack of take-up of the idea that H can help solve energy demand/supply problems has pushed the sector out or favour. Maybe the timescales are wrong, maybe looming recession and infrastructure investment cutbacks etc are all weighing on the sector. And, frankly, the managerial talent across this sector is a bit lightweight. But given the profits big oil is making they should be investing much more in the H alternatives. Not much medium/long term thinking going on right now.
Less than one third of one percent of the stock in issue has changed hands this morning. This may be a rout on price but there's not much volume behind it. Could recover equally quickly with any buying interest. On the other hand if a big fish wants to sell . . . . .!
Odd. Companmy announces a 5p bounce in NAV due to corporation tax changes and the SP drops 5p. Why?
There;s a bit more activity in the normally inactive share since the announcemenmt Keith Todd was going to TT. If KRM22 doesn't pick up then Keith will be heavily out of pocket. He's been in since lanch at 100 and has topped up and taken stock in lieu of some salary ever since. He must be seriously below his average buying price. I wonder whether part of the deal might be TT taking over KRM in due course to buy Keith out at breakeven or better? KRM probably has some staff/services/customer contracts which would be of value to TT anyway.
Hopefully if HGEN builds stakes in unllsted companies with proven technology and they scale up to viable commercial operations then Ineos will be looking to get involved too. The HGEN model of buying into non listed companies means they need an exit route in due course, which is usually listing or fresh investors coming in. Almost all the big names in energy have hydrogen in their future pans; it;s a question of finding winners in the new H companies and realising their value in a reasonable timescale. It's a pity (and strange) the IPO was so undersubscribed - 250m would have spread the risk a lot thinner if HGEN is investing in 20m clips.
One of the characteristics of several listed hydrogen is their volatility. If you look at their share prices they can easily move 5-10 p.c. in a day and 15-20 p.c. in a week. Unlisted stocks are a different matter - it's more difficult to pin down their prices other than the last one you paid. In a volatile sector you want relatively frequent NAV numbers but I must admit daily seems a bit over the top. Weekly should do. Overall several H stocks have seen a fair bit of slippage from their euphoric highs of last year so a bit of bottom fishing by Hgen is no bad thing. They are now good value for the 1-3 year period.
People are comparing HydrogenOne with a nummber of other H stocks such as CWR, PHE, ITM etc. But it's not exactly a like for like comparison. HydrogenOne is looking at a top end gain of £56k from £10k invested after five years. Tasty and it'll do for me. But the risks getting there are considerable as they will be investing heavily in non-listed companies whose liquidity is always an issue unless they come to market or find another private buyer. The rider from this is HydrogenOne's own liquidity risk, i.e. the NAV premium/discount and the bid/offer spread. And that's assuming the fund's targetted investments do OK. Now look at currently listed H stocks and ask yourselves the same question - where will they be in 5 years and in the meantime is there sufficient trading liquidity to cash out at fair value if I need to. I'm not selling CWR, PHE, ITM etc to buy more H1. Maybe next year when H1's investment programme is tangible.
Like any mineral exploration project findingf the stuff is not the difficult bit. The science is in finding how much of it you've got, how much you can get at, what are the concentrations (lucrative pockets and run-of-mine) and what's its lifespan. Then you have to work out the extraction and processing cost to produce the stuff you want to sell and you weigh that against the current and expected price. The problem with mining is that you have to invest in a huge amount of capital cost upfront before you can produce in commercial quantities, which is usually when one of the big companies comes in to partner up. That way you avoid huge debts and/or unsustainable rights issues. The big risk is you run out of money before you can reach production. Happens a lot - the world is dotted with 'world-class deposits' of this and that mineral which no-one can afford to develop to full commercial scale. And don't forget the substition effect. If a materal gets too expensive the boffins will try and find a subsitute or a way of doing without it. But, that said, HE1 is a strong buy unless the drilling numbers turn up a dog's dinner. Anything reasonable from the drilling will be good news for the SP.
Why bother? It's a way of acquiring more stock without paying broker commission. Every little helps!
And I've always taken them as scrip. There used to be a tax advantage over cash though I'm not sure that's still the case. But over time the scrip build up can be significant and it means you're not paying broker commission nor the spread to acquire stock.
Does anyone in the know have any comment on today's RNS. Was this planned? Did he jump or was he pushed? What difference will it make?
Steady buying in small size. Obviously not many sellers after latest announcements. New broker is also supposed to bring in some institutional buying; so we might have come off the bottom and started an upwards trend.
Be nice to reach my break-even soon!
Well worked out Hedgie. Interesting acquisition but would have liked an explanation why the added value is significantly more in year 2 over year 1. Even so buying has perked up today which has to be good.
Large orders. There seems to be a misconception about large orders going through 'after hours'. What happens is that if the automatic matching service can't take a buy or sell order in size without splitting and skewing the price the order is done off screen and reported separately. So it looks like a late trade but it's usually not. It's just late reported.
Rhydian did your funds suddenly become available. If not there's a sudden flurry of activity which is unusual for this stock in recent weeks. Perhaps someone's got wind of some announcements as part of the interims.
Looking at this confirmed deal from an assets valuation viewpoint is not going to work. But as a second phase startup it has a lot going for it. PHE as it was had a good idea, not yet proven commerciall,y and and interesting place in the future business of waste recycling and power generation/hydrogen. There were many big hills to climb, even before Covid. So we bought in as a prospect.
Now we're in a market where waste recycling/Hydrogen are becoming normalised and PHE has a big stake in that, there's a clear track to commercialisation and if new sites can be rolled out soon the future looks very bright.
Personally I think W2T have done better short term but PHE should now expect to attract solid institutional support as the plan comers to fruition.
It's an even better prospect now.
Strange numbers again on this site. A late afternoon listing of a 472,286 purchase at 276 was given a value of £1million. Clearly wrong, should be over £1.3m.
Pity the H sector has got so steamy recently. A 15-20 p.c. daily volatility isn't good for business. May suit the day traders but fund managers want a calmer environment with good prospects. PHE, CWR, AFC all over the place at present. Some steadying of the ships would get serious long term buyers in.
Whats going on? The board lists a sale near the close of 560,000 shares at 276 and quotes a transaction value of £2m, Do the math as the Americans say, 560,000 share at £2.76 is £1.54m, not £2m. One of these three numbers is wrong.