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Believe it or not, 32,266,736 shares have been traded since the 14th May, wow! The 14th May is the day after Lansdowne Resulting below 5% ownership threshold was crossed or reached and confirmed in the RNS dated 19th May. There is only 109,493,842 in issue. This means 29.46% of shares have been traded since the 14th May.
The last confirmed holdings are confirmed below and for the three parties in question;
- RNS - 19-May-20 - Lansdowne - Resulting Below 5%
- RNS - 12-May-20 - Richard Griffiths - Resulting 5.94%
- Shareholder info on company website - updated 17 March 20 - BlackRock(LinkFund) - 10.10%
For me this churn signals there has been a number of II selling and I make the total II holdings 32.54% at last count, including Bank of America at 11.50%. This level of selling must be nearing the end and there will be a reversal/rerate with the flow of news.
Annual statement interms of oncology & deals with other blockbuster drugs like Keytruda “we have ramped up our business development activities with the goal of expanding the development of MRx0518 into new settings, and are actively exploring additional collaborations.”
It’s a mater of when the SP will the rerate not if - the market cap is madness!
Great article and keep the faith- this will come good! https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/921377/4d-pharma-a-clinical-stage-innovator-and-pioneer-of--live-biotherapeutics-921377.html
“Bargain territory?
A catalyst for a more realistic valuation might be a partnership of some description, adding to 4D’s research collaboration with MSD Merck & Co in the vaccines space.
A licensing deal in the oncology space would seem an ideal place to start, though Peyton believes MRx0518 has the potential to work with other immune checkpoint inhibitors, not just Keytruda.
“Of course, MSD is a ready-made partner and we like working with them, but there are others out there,” he adds.
“We have multiple conversations ongoing around IBS [irritable bowel syndrome] and we’ve done a lot of pre-clinical work in autoimmune and oncology too.
“We have conversations in all those areas, and conversations about the platform itself.”
Let’s hope those conversations help crystalise value.”
4D have cash till end of Q4 and not to worry yet. Multiple value opportunities before then. Statement from end of year results “ Together with restructuring measures undertaken in light of COVID-19 the Directors estimate that the cash held by the Group together with known receivables will be sufficient to support the current level of activities to the end of quarter four of 2020.” Therefore not just over three months. Hope this help.
Could any please clarify the difference between ‘record date’ and ‘ex-entitlement date for open offer’. Is the ex date when the share purchase needs to be settled by?
I purchased shares on the morning of the 25th and been stelled today 27th, therefore would I be eligible for the OO? Thanks
To add I can see the profit levels in the construction industry rising to 3 to 4%, if a business is run well and performing. The key to this is reducing the number of problem projects as they have a massive impact on the overall business numbers. A reduction of 50% of the problem projects should do this.
I would not only focus on the profit generated by construction. I could see that once things are working right, construction could create a £100m+ positive cash. Therefore help the balance sheet and reduce the daily debt position and reduce interest costs. It’s not solely about paying of the debt, however looking at the value of each part the business and how they work together.
AteNRG Info on the CCS framework. https://ccs-agreements.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/sites/default/files/attachments/Construction%20Works%20-%20Industry%20Day%20Customer%20Presentation%2014.02.18%20%28v3.0%29_1.pdf
There are some interesting framework tender opportunities coming up for Interserve, for example the £20 billion pan Government 7 year construction framework. This will cover defence, ministry of justice, HMRC and potentially other procurement bodies in the future.
Met I take you aren’t good with figures then?
Morgan Sindall performance was improved by fit out business and using cash generated in the investment and development businesses
As previously said it’s the cash generated from construction to invest in other parts of the business and not just about the small margins
The overall Overheads and Profit levels on construction projects would be around 10 to 12% ( or even less), however you will need to deduct the overheads which would be around 5.5 to 6%, then insurance fee which will likely be over 1% due to the recent claims, bonds, etc and then you will have the clear margin. Remember on most construction frameworks and contracts declared OH&P will be starting from a negative overhead position to gain a place/secure the scheme and will need to build the profit up to the required level. Then you need to consider the average of the projects and the ones that don’t go to plan that have a significant on the overall construction business performance. You can blow a large amount of profit on a small number of problem contracts as we know and contract selectivity is key.
The best construction firms run at 2.5% clear margin and it’s about what they do with the cash generated to create leverage and additional margin through investment. Just look at the top ten league table and comparison that Construction News produced for 2017 results. 3%+ would be ground breaking for a top performing construction firm. Can’t count on the construction profit to pay off the debt. I can’t speak for margin on FM
MrEdwasAhorse: I would just like to declare I have some 173k shares in Interserve and still positive on the outlook, if the right decisions are made. Just stating my view and not trying to influence the SP
There sometimes needs to be sacrifices for long term gains and a clear business model. I can’t see building a business model solely around the profits of RMD and a long term future of one Interserve. Other businesses have tried and tested successful models in this sector.
AENDJO. I respect your view, however is DW waiting for a deal to be agreed and still keep business as usual at RMDK. Something significant needs to be done and a long term business decision. Just can’t see how RMDK fits in with the ‘one Interserve’ vision. The question for me is the business model right and creating leverage from the cash generated to maximise the returns.
I would not be surprised if Kwickform is sold for £200m+, as it sits outside their core business. I don’t work for Interserve, however I had meeting at Ingenuity House recently and I was impressed with their staff and the positive vibe.