Member Info for condor_forever

I'd take 25% NPV at $2000 gold.

I would say somewhere around $900m. This is simply looking at the difference between the NPV numbers at $2000 and at $2,200 and the madding the difference to the NPV at $2,200.

Https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qobUwba0uIQ

Good listen around M&A action in the mining sector. I do wonder whether the sudden rise in POG will put more pressure on the buyer to do a deal quicker before the value of our asset gets more and more profitable.

Even better are the numbers from the PEA in 2021 based on 150,000 Oz per annum including the feeder pits. At $2,200 gold, the NPV is USD$769m and 87% IRR.

Ilka, unfortunately that is not the way to value gold companies.

DDD, don't forget the $60m USD gold prepayment they have agreed.

https://calibremining.com/news/calibre-enters-pre-commissioning-and-commissioning-8155/

They have already received $40m USD and the remaining $20m USD arrives 15th April. Is it just coincidence the timing of the prepayment and financing are both within a few days of each other?

Time will tell!

Recent video. Hard to say but looks like valentine is costing a bit and they are in discussions in the financing of the sprott debt of valentine. Nothing about M&A.

https://youtu.be/Ti1IPb8MaMY?si=jlPORqIhqg3hOlVh

Although as frustrating as it has been with the length of the sales process, holding out has been a blessing with the current POG.

The board is aligned with it's shareholders unlike other recent examples of M&A (particularly Shanta). We should fetch a decent price for this project. Just eagerly waiting for that RNS to drop.

I do wonder if the current spike in gold price will hurry up the process but then if anyone but calibre buy us, it'll take 18 months before they start digging it out the ground.

When calibre acquired marathon they combined their cash on hand and had $148m USD by the end of 2023. They then announced the bought deal of $74m USD. This combined would cover the cost to complete the valentine project.

Then add this year's free cash flow and then the forward payment of gold. If you ignore the forward payment, last year's fcf was $200m. It does make you wonder why they decided to take the money for the forward payment of gold of 27,000 Oz. Why would they need more money upfront with their current cash on hand, recent bought deal and likely fcf.

Https://youtu.be/Bc9vGyjDnOw?si=Z8sSD0W3J4Eb3rNp

Short 7 min video with Ryan king of calibre. Talks about the surplus capacity at la libertad and opportunities ahead. Doesn't particularly say that costs are higher than expected at valentine. Make of it what you will.

Or maybe they are after us. Who knows. Taken from the news release:

"Given the strong gold price environment, and continued investment across our portfolio of assets, we have executed a US$60 million 12-month gold prepay as part of our cash flow management strategy as we transition to a quality mid-tier gold producer. The prepay represents less than 10% of our expected 2024 gold production with deliveries commencing in May 2024.”

Https://ceo.ca/@globenewswire/calibre-enters-pre-commissioning-and-commissioning

Just announced a gold prepayment for $60m USD for 27,600 Oz of gold. I've a feeling valentine is going to cost more than expected.

Sorry, it was $60m USD, $80m CAD. Not a great return/example. They are waiting on some licences I think. We are more derisked.

Https://ceo.ca/@accesswire/cerrado-gold-signs-option-and-loan-agreements-with

Looks like cerrado needed money to pursue their other assets. They sold an FS study $390m USD for $80m USD.

Https://ceo.ca/@newswire/orford-announces-acquisition-by-alamos-gold-at-a-significant

It was a small acquisition of only $24m but it was a 134% premium to the SP at the time. At these prices, a bigger premium is probably nothing in the grand scheme of things.

Https://makominingcorp.com/news-media/press-releases/index.php?content_id=348

Mako have done well to use their overvalued paper to buy a small junior explorer for $33m, a 40% premium of the current so of goldsource. Goldsource have just the single project in Guyana and just released a PEA with an NPV of $292m at $1850 gold. Just over 0.1 book value, not a massive capex spend either, similar to our capex.

Kitco mining digging deep. First half talking about gold equity valuations and does mention about the recent raise by calibre around 12 mins ish.

https://youtu.be/8QYscWnIiUY?si=_namFrzfm3evq5qb

Ilka, nothing written or expressed on this BB will have any influence on an offer. The company is doing it's best to get market value for the asset.

All we can do is sit and wait and we can look at other recent acquisitions to try and gauge an idea on what that value might be.

Here is a recent example of M&A which I posted about a few weeks ago.

https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/2616-tsx-venture/osi/156452-yintai-to-acquire-osino-in-an-all-cash-transaction-for-c-368-million.html

Osino had a higher mineral reserve than us and we know the market pays more for reserves. Even if we matched that offer, our sp would be circa 80p minus costs/options that would be converted.

Best to try and be realistic. Show me any other recent M&As that show higher prices/offers based on their project scale.

I still think the Chinese are front runners. You never know, maybe there might be something in relation to the timing of calibre's recent fundraise. If news is announced in the next few weeks of a deal with the Chinese, other interested parties will then know the price. Calibre would then have a war chest of money if they were interested in making an counter offer.